Must-know: Tighter-than-expected oil supply in the future

For fuel from petroleum, the demand will decrease, however products that can only be made from petroleum feed stock will be needed.
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Well, yeah where demand will decline in 10-15 years will be just gasoline because of conversion to natural gas houses, trains trucks and buses. But also, and here I’ve been converted to believing this in the last year—But also, electric cars will cut into demand for gasoline. I don’t don’t think that this is just about Tesla though Tesla RIGHT NOW is a major part of it — rather its about what Tesla is forcing the major automakers to do. That is...the major auto makers are being forced to invest a whole lot more into electric cars.

Sort of how back in 1973 after the oil embargo that the auto makers had to adapt or go out of business.
When we got those very crappy compact cars like the Chevy Vega, Ford Pinto, or the shinning example to quality engineering the AMC Pacer car : huge dose of sarcasm with the AMC Pacer car.
The Chevy Shi_vette was a , well, sort of ok.

Sort of how back in 1973
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You’ve about got it right for the dating. History does not repeat but it does rhyme. We are currently imho, in a time reminiscent of the early 70’s. In 1970 US oil production peaked, not because there was no more oil in the ground but rather because the saudis had so much oil they could get it out of the ground for .25-.50@ barrel and ship it anywhere in the world for 1.25. That killed US oil production. When the saudis had cornered the market then they jacked up oil prices in 1973. Today, the demand for oil is so high and while OPEC’s share of world oil production is shrinking that US oil producers can bring more oil to market. But its expensive oil. In some places it costs 90@ barrel for each new barrel of oil. Even the best producers have costs in the 60-70 dollar range.

The big build out of US oil production will continue as long as oil prices remain above +-$90@ barrel. At $80@ barrel oil production stops rising.

I’m actually hoping that oil prices will remain high until about 2020. Because after that it will be a decline in US demand for oil that start to whittle down the price of oil.

Anything to tweek the price of oil so it will help grow the US industry but won’t let the Arabs and Russa become wealthy.
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The payoff there won’t be for another 10 years when when the bleed off of demand caused by the uptake of natural gas buildings, trains trucks and buses plus electric cars—...kills the price of oil.

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