EIA: Eagle Ford to cross 1.5 million daily barrels in September

Fuel Fix ^ | August 14, 2014 | Jennifer Hiller

[mad_as_he$$]

Based upon numbers from eia there is a difference between well head output, refinery input and exports/imports of about 1 mbpd to the positive. It is hard to sort it all out due to the typical government bs but the host of this call had spent time doing it and made a solid case that the number is being padded. I cannot share his direct data due to confidentially agreements but it is out there in raw form(I checked his sources). He also maintains (without supporting data) that many well head numbers are being under reported - I have heard this for years in the industry.

[thackney]

Based upon numbers from eia there is a difference between well head output, refinery input and exports/imports of about 1 mbpd to the positive.

If you do not include changes in total stock levels, you are not including all oil movement.

I cannot share his direct data due to confidentially agreements but it is out there in raw form(I checked his sources).

Yes the data is publicly available. It does not support this claim, with or without stock level changes. See the last 6 months below.

US Crude Oil Production
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M

13-Dec 7,893 MMBPD
14-Jan 7,973 MMBPD
14-Feb 8,043 MMBPD
14-Mar 8,146 MMBPD
14-Apr 8,393 MMBPD
14-May 8,357 MMBPD

U.S. Net Imports
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=M
13-Dec 7,569 MMBPD
14-Jan 7,339 MMBPD
14-Feb 6,960 MMBPD
14-Mar 7,018 MMBPD
14-Apr 7,279 MMBPD
14-May 6,877 MMBPD

U.S. Refinery Net Input of Crude Oil http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPC0_YIY_NUS_2&f=M
13-Dec 16,073 MBPD
14-Jan 15,300 MBPD
14-Feb 15,122 MBPD
14-Mar 15,126 MBPD
14-Apr 15,867 MBPD
14-May 15,945 MBPD

So now looking at Supply - Demand (Production + Imports - Refinery Inputs) we get: 13-Dec -611 MBPD
14-Jan 12 MBPD
14-Feb -119 MBPD
14-Mar 38 MBPD
14-Apr -195 MBPD
14-May -711 MBPD
It never reaches a million barrels per day, the average is -264 thousand barrels per day, but in the opposite direction of the claim, more to the refinery than produced and imported.

This would support some claim that the wellhead production is under-reported. Trying to not paying full royalties to mineral owner could be part of that.

I did look at stock levels as well. It changes it some but not a lot.

[mad_as_he$$]

Thanks.