Israel Will Be The Last Man Standing in the Middle East: The Oil Weapon vs. the Grain Weapon

The Arab Spring, which started with the self-immolation of a Tunisian vegetable vendor at 11.30 am on 16^th December, 2010, has resulted in two failed states in the region so far. Libya has become “Scumbag Woodstock” because of the number of terrorist organisations headquartered there. The French and English attempt at regime change created a terrorist haven with consequences as far afield as Mali and the 300 Christian girls kidnapped in Nigeria. Fortunately, Syria has become a meatgrinder for Islamic terrorists and for the moment has ceased being a net exporter of terrorism. In that conflict, the Obama Administration has chosen to support the side that does all the beheadings. Perhaps it is a brilliant plan -- a rational person would want the meatgrinder to keep grinding rather than have the Islamists defeated too quickly.

The last time Syria attacked a civilised nation was the Yom Kippur War of 1973 in which it and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel. At the time, Syria had a population of seven million and Egypt 38 million. It was also about the last time that both countries could feed themselves from their own agricultural efforts. Their populations are now 22 million and 83 million respectively, with all the increase in population from 1973 fed with imported grain. This is true of the whole Middle East – North Africa (MENA) region. This is shown in the following graph going from Morocco in the west to Afghanistan in the east.

The size of each bar is the country’s population in millions. The blue part is the proportion fed from domestic production and the red part is the proportion kept alive with grain imports.

Nice post and an interesting theory.

But central to that theory seems to be that grain production has really plateaued and unsupportable price increases are both inevitable and unaffordable by many of the Islamic countries. While possibly if not probably true I suspect the timeline is a bit longer than one would infer from the article.

But, as they say, time will tell. The basic conclusion seems valid.

Remember core Soviet military doctrine has been nuke ‘em and then apply a few bioweapons - note the “few”. “Soviet” doctrine is what we now can accurately call collectivist doctrine.

Survivors will envy the dead.

All because Americans were unwilling to remember history and remove the treasonous from their agencies, education system, and elected offices when it could have been accomplished without such a war.

Thanks SeekAndFind.

Syria has become a meatgrinder for Islamic terrorists... The last time Syria attacked a civilised nation was the Yom Kippur War of 1973 in which it and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel. At the time, Syria had a population of seven million and Egypt 38 million. It was also about the last time that both countries could feed themselves... Their populations are now 22 million and 83 million respectively... [This is also the case in] the whole Middle East – North Africa (MENA) region... from Morocco in the west to Afghanistan in the east.

Reminds me of a bit from the late Sam Kinison -- "first, you go hungry; then, we kick your [bleeping] ass."

Hopefully (I didn't check) this post is in before the anti-globalism/anti-Monsanto/anti-Rothschild/anti-Bilderberger rant 'n' rave.

If you remember part of the impetus for the civil unrest in Egypt was bread shortages. Bread, for the poor, is typically made in corner bakeries and this is a staple for the poor. The grain supply was/is heavily subsidized in Egypt which effectively kills domestic production as it is unprofitable. Mubarak likely exercised a lot of control, in part, because at the end of the day he kept the poor fed at minimal cost to them. (Not unlike Obama.)

Governments can make a commodity cheap or make commodity abundant, but not both for very long -this is natural law, supply and demand.

Below...circa 2008, four people killed in bread lines in three weeks and Mubarak called out the army -this was the seed carnal of the revolution.

MIR: Egypt - The War of Bread
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvvykKc_OcI

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