Luis Gutierrez: Without Amnesty George W. Bush Last Republican President

Just to emphasize...here's the money statement:

" If these white voters had decided to vote, the racial breakdown of the electorate would have been 73.6 percent white, 12.5 percent black, 9.5 percent Hispanic and 2.4 percent Asian -- almost identical to the 2008 numbers"

Downscale, Rural, Northern, and White. The working class Americans...who want a home in the Republican Party, but they don't see it.

What a nice, honest non-partisan demmunist to offer such wonderful advice to his colleagues across the aisle.

You still haven't gotten near my first point. The upper midwest and Northeast is not overrun with Mexicans or Cubans or Dominicans, except for NYC. At least not in any magnitude that will change elections dramatically.

Again. I reiterate that immigration is not the only factor, just a contributing one. Immigrants and minorities vote more than two to one Democrat. They are increasing in numbers and as a percent of the population. Many immigrants don't vote yet.

By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as defined by the USG and by 2043 the US will become a majority minority country. Every cohort that turns 18 annually is more and more minority and more Democrat.

The non-Hispanic white population is projected to peak in 2024, at 199.6 million, up from 197.8 million in 2012. Unlike other race or ethnic groups, however, its population is projected to slowly decrease, falling by nearly 20.6 million from 2024 to 2060.

Meanwhile, the Hispanic population would more than double, from 53.3 million in 2012 to 128.8 million in 2060. Consequently, by the end of the period, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic, up from about one in six today.

The black population is expected to increase from 41.2 million to 61.8 million over the same period. Its share of the total population would rise slightly, from 13.1 percent in 2012 to 14.7 percent in 2060.

The Asian population is projected to more than double, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060, with its share of nation's total population climbing from 5.1 percent to 8.2 percent in the same period.

The U.S. is projected to become a majority-minority nation for the first time in 2043. While the non-Hispanic white population will remain the largest single group, no group will make up a majority.

All in all, minorities, now 37 percent of the U.S. population, are projected to comprise 57 percent of the population in 2060. (Minorities consist of all but the single-race, non-Hispanic white population.) The total minority population would more than double, from 116.2 million to 241.3 million over the period.

22% of NY state's population are immigrants. That doesn't include the non-immigrant minorities or large liberal groups like Jews who have always voted predominantly Dem or the Irish for that matter.

The Northeast has been dominated by Democrats for a long time. NJ, MA, RI, and Conn are solid Dem states with significant immigrant populations.

In the Midwest, MN hasn't gone Rep since 1972. Illinois and MI haven't gone Rep since 1988. WI hasn't gone Rep since 1984. Iowa has gone Rep once since 1984.

But I'm not going to give the "Republican" party a pass on Patricians like Romney. He had a chance, got close...but lost.

There are armies of Whites who might have voted for him...but didn't. Regardless of the numbers you show - which I know about. And even the Left gets it.

McCain got 55% of the white vote in 2008. Romney's percentage of 59% would have won him most elections in the past. The problem is that non-Hispanic whites are just 63% of the population compared to 89% in 1970. Obama recorded the two highest vote totals for President in history.

With Amnesty the repubs will become a irrelevant minority.

"Demographics Are Destiny"

—Rummy's Rules

" If these white voters had decided to vote, the racial breakdown of the electorate would have been 73.6 percent white, 12.5 percent black, 9.5 percent Hispanic and 2.4 percent Asian -- almost identical to the 2008 numbers"

According to the exit polls, whites comprised 72% of the voters. Whites were 74% of the vote in 2008. But whites only voted 55% for McCain and 43% for Obama compared to 39% for Obama in 2012. Maybe many of the whites who stayed home were Obama voters.

In 2012 Obama won 65,917,119 to 60,932,078. In 2008, Obama won 69,499,428 to 59,950,323. So Romney received one million more votes than McCain and Obama received 3 1/2 million fewer votes than 2008, but still won by five million votes. Since we don't elect Presidents by popular vote you would need a real analysis state by state.

The bottom line is that we have entered the era of tribal politics and the white tribe is losing numbers while the other tribes are gaining in numbers. And our immigration policies bring in hundreds of thousands of future Dem voters annually. Unless we reduce legal immigration substantially, the Reps are fighting a losing battle. Demography is destiny. You live in CA. The demography of the US in 2050 will be about what it is in CA today. So where are all those Reagan Democrats in CA who will sweep the GOP to victory?

Thanks for those charts and info. You’re always on top of the immigration info.

Gutierrez is right that it will be the Republicans that fix the problem and Gutierrez is in the wrong party. It will not be an amnesty with an easy pathway to citizenship.