Posted on 04/21/2014 4:03:27 PM PDT by Sub-Driver
Democrats have a 1 percent chance of winning back the House
By Chris Cillizza April 21 at 3:40 pm
Ask any Democratic elected official about the party's chances of winning back the House this November and he/she will tell you that it's possible but not likely. That's true(ish) but requires a decidedly broad definition of the word "possible", according to the latest House election model by John Sides at the Monkey Cage Blog.
Writes Sides: "The prognosis for Democrats isn’t any better: the median estimate is a small seat loss (to 196 seats). The chance of their regaining the House is still very low — about 1%." (Make sure to read Sides' full post for an explanation of what factors go into the model and how it produces the results.)
The most likely outcome, according to Sides, is a five-seat gain for Republicans -- meaning that they would control somewhere in the neighborhood of 239 seats in the 114th Congress. If Republicans did get to 239 seats, it would be the second most seats they have controlled since the 80th Congress, which spanned from 1947 to 1949. (Republicans controlled 242 seats after the 2010 tidal wave election.)
The danger for Democrats' in Sides' model is that donors sometime soon begin to walk away from giving to the House cause to devote all -- or most -- of their cash to trying to keep control of the Senate. (That is less of a problem that it was before the McCutcheon ruling, of course.) To date, that hasn't happened; as of the end of March, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has raised $2.5 million more than its Republican counterpart so far in 2014.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Wait till Bonehead, Cantor and McCarthy pass amnesty.
And let’s see what the numbers look then.
Only the stupid party can screw up what looks like a promising election.
So, let’s see how much the bottom falls out when the GOP passes amnesty.
Never underestimate the power of the GOPe to snatch away defeat.
gee,,what happened to Nate Silver? I thought he was the chosen Dem prognosticator.
Maybe they are not stupid...just in bed with the dems
Hmmmm.....so there IS a chance??? We need to work harder!
"...the median estimate is a small seat loss (to 196 seats). The chance of their regaining the House is still very low — about 1%." ... The most likely outcome, according to Sides, is a five-seat gain for Republicans -- meaning that they would control somewhere in the neighborhood of 239 seats in the 114th Congress... the second most seats they have controlled since the 80th Congress... from 1947 to 1949. (Republicans controlled 242 seats after the 2010 tidal wave election.)
I didn’t realize their odds were that good. I would have placed them between zilch and none.
Unless the GOPe causes such a revolt that a 3rd party forms.
I don’t look for that, but never underestimate the stupidity of the GOPe.
Median is 435 - 196 = 239; the source sez a 39 percent chance of 242 Pubbies, a 24 percent chance of 246 Pubbies, and a point-2 percent chance of 270 Pubbies (same as 1928).
How big could the GOP House majority get?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/18/how-big-could-the-gop-house-majority-get/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/04/forecastinghistogram.png
Any attempt to base electoral outcomes on polls of likely voters will greatly underestimate Democrat performance in actual elections.
Polls do not take into account massive voter fraud, which is becoming institutionalized under the current Administration.
Voter fraud is an intrinsic requirement for much coveted Democrat one party (totalitarian) rule.
Don’t believe it. Primary the RINOs and crush every Democrat.
I want 402 Republican seats. Let NYC, LA, and CHICAGO have the 33 Democrats.
Or Boehner!
Agree with others - the ONLY WAY the Democrats can do well in the election this year is if we give them Amnesty.
...the SAD THING is that the Republican leadership knows that.
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