When will the 2014 Democratic versions of Unskew the Polls start to appear? I remember back in 2012 lots of Freepers who did not like Silver’s and other predictions was pushing these sites. Unfortunately Silver went I believe 50-for-50.
They’re scared to death that this will dry up their donations!
This means Republicans need to really ramp it up to beat the cheating, lying, and conniving liberal opponents who will be doing just that to keep their incumbents in office.
Nate Silver was right in 2012.
I have respect for him and I’ll never dismiss him again.
The Democrats today are the mirror image of the Freepers who dismissed bad news like a plague in 2012 because we didn’t want to hear it.
That Obama would be - and in fact was - comfortably re-elected. Its now the Democrats’ turn to whistle past the graveyard in 2014.
This is very true.
People point to that "50 for 50" prediction in 2012 in the presidential race, but so what? A monkey could have predicted 40 states (Utah for Romney, Illinois for Obama...) Silver has always seemed overrated to me.
The "dim-bulb" Democrats are a laugh a minute.
Silver essentially provides the “middle case” estimate as an aggregator of polls. He’s as right or as wrong as the models used for input, but generally can be more consistent assuming the other models are basically sound because he attenuates random “noise”.
Now, if the general trend among pollsters is to get the turnout model wrong, Silver will be just as wrong as they are. There’s nothing magical here either way. In 2012, we had lost of reason to suspect the turnout model was skewed, but Team Obama did a far better job turning out the young skulls full of mush than many of us had expected.
It could be true that the turnout model for 2014 is wrong - across the board with a majority of the polling agencies. It’s probably more likely in a mid-term election than in a Presidential year. That said, I’ve always said the trend was more important than the absolute numbers, and regardless of any skew, the trend is killing Democrats right now.
Well he is wrong, he’s got just a basic take over at 60%, the reality is the odds of the Republicans taking control of the Senate is easily in the 80-90% range.
How many more seats beyond 51 is the real questions...
With so many Quisling RINOs in their ranks, will a simple GOP Senate majority matter?
Which is exactly what he intended to do...
There’s a word for this: schadenfreude.