Skip to comments.US PAYROLLS BEAT EXPECTATIONS, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES
Posted on 03/07/2014 5:50:10 AM PST by John W
The Bureau of Labor Statistics says 175,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls in December, well above Wall Streets consensus estimate of 149,000.
162,000 of those hires were to private payrolls, above expectations for a 145,000 rise in the ranks of private-sector workers.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.7% from 6.6%. Labor force participation was unchanged at 63.0%.
610,000 were unable to work due to inclement weather in February, above the historical February average of 317,000.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com.au ...
LOTS of part time hires. An effect of ObamaCare? CNBC pretends not to know.
I’m betting this new 175K jobs number will be “revised” down next month by a lot.
The economy added 175,000 jobs in February while the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analysts had expected 149,000 jobs to be added. Upward revisions for December and January added an extra 25,000 jobs.
Food services and drinking places continued to add jobs, with 21,000 more in February and an average of 27,000 added each month over the last year. Professional and business services also added 79,000 jobs.
Unemployment rate by education:
No HS diploma: 9.8%
HS diploma: 6.4%
Some higher ed: 6.2%
College degree or more: 3.4%
Babysit for 1 hour and that's a new job. Those are the sorts of things are included in the monthly job estimating model.
Which means the figures are largely made up BS. There's really not that much actual job reporting and compiling that goes on. It's all from the birth/death model and the estimating, etc.
Consider this report without the benefit of a 1.5 million “jobs” season adjustment.
I should add that the monthly and quarterly revisions are based on more actual data, hence all the downward revisions.
December and January were both revised up. Dec +9K and Jan +25K.
How would you describe the status of the US economy?
School of Hard Knocks: 0.0%
ahh... it just wouldn’t be an economic report during the Obama years without the word “unexpected”
*unexpectedly* down no doubt :)
Short version: Continued slow/sub-optimal recovery.
Long version: Conditions continue to improve albeit very slowly compared to other recoveries. The consumer is back after focusing on their balance sheets for several years. Housing is improving off the all-time lows of 2009 and stagnation through 2012. Businesses are generating record profits but are reluctant to spend/invest because of crushing government regulation and uncertainty. Still plenty of slack in labor and manufacturing. There is plenty of upside in this recovery which is decidedly sub-optimal. But there has been a recovery for a while.
Largest Law Firm (IIRC) in United States goes Bankrupt. Law Firm under investigation for fraud. 3,000+ attorneys (IIRC). Comparisons to Enron being leveled by media against Law Firm. Wonder what the real story is and why does the real story always make its way out through an opinion, a non opinion or additional fraud which one could call complacency known as a media?
That’s a revealing number. Not going to college is fine, but you’d better know what you’re doing?
Just two words about this jobs report....”My A$$?”
It surprises me that anyone still gives any credence at all to any information coming from this government.
Yes, understand things in Australia are taking a move downward.
How is that shake down movement going for you Wal street? ... Fed to prime, taxes, Obamacare. what a thugocracy we are entering. They all must be so proud. No wonder now they want to shake down for our guns, 1929 is going to be a joke.
Ditto - on the jobs number being revised down next week. It is the pattern of this administration. If a private business constantly gave out false information to its clients, it would be fined or put out of business by our “benevolent” government/s.
Maybe some of the jobs were snow blowing/shoveling, etc.
Confusion verses non-Confusion and everyone takes a Deep Breath. Am truly surprised to this moment but that does not mean I do not think it couldn’t happen.
This report comes out monthly. Initial Claims comes out weekly.
So "wall street" makes up a number. Sees a higher number from BLS and then says, "Hurrah! We should invest, no wait. We are counting on the feds to buy more stocks and bonds. What a glorious day!"
Really? The wolves in charge of the henhouse are making low ball predictions and then celebrating when it comes in higher?
A country club here in the KC metro is probably going to file bankruptcy. It’s been around since 1952. It’s membership has dropped 36% in the past 10 years. I want to believe that prosperity will come back and my kids will have the opportunities I had. But I see a “new normal” settling in: A philosophical stance that rejects the idea of prosperity because it increases our carbon footprint.
“Wall Street” in this case is “consensus estimate” of hundreds of economists. Some of them work for Wall Street firms. Some of them work for companies (FDX has a chief economist). Some of them work for universities. NASDAQ and NYSE have economists. It’s not a bunch of traders “making up numbers” and it’s averaged to smooth out the variances in forecasting methodologies.
As someone who does forecasting for a living, the one thing I always know for sure about my forecast is that it’s wrong.
It (hic) wood seam (hic) like weeeee .....May hav (hic) expectedly hy leeeevuuls of (hic) unexpected fer sum time yet. Eye gosss tuh paaass out now.
Yeah Country Clubs took a huge hit in Atlanta as well. Discretionary expense when times were tough that was easy to cut. Same thing for private schools who have seen applications drop.
The solution, in my opinion, lies in the federal government getting the hell out of the way so the economy can grow faster. The GOP is just as bad as the Dems.
Here is a quote from Dalls fed President Richard Fisher:
“It is my firm belief that the fault in our economy lies not in monetary policy but in a feckless federal government that simply cannot get its fiscal and regulatory policy geared so as to encourage business to take the copious amount of money we at the Fed have created and put it to work creating jobs and growing our economy. Fiscal policy is not only not an ally of U.S. growth, it is its enemy. If the fiscal and regulatory authorities that you elect and put into office to craft taxes, spending and regulations do not focus their efforts on providing incentives for businesses to expand job-creating capital investment rather than bicker with each other for partisan purposes, our economy will continue to fall short and the middle-income worker will continue being victimized, no matter how much money the Fed prints.”
“It surprises me that anyone still gives any credence at all to any information coming from this government.”
No surprise at all considering that some people still believe in AGW and believe it or not some still think BHO was a good idea. Personally I would rather have the DTs than listen to BHO prattle about AGW.
“will be revised”
Strange admission coming from fed. In their opinion (the fed) creating money creates jobs and grows the economy.
Markets aren’t necessarily doing the somersaults over this anticipated by futures and stories on the employment report.
Just got back from the Tampa area on vacation. I've been going down there about the same time since the crisis hit. Even this year it is still easy to get tee times on what were once totally private clubs. Before the crisis hit, it was hard to get a tee time for under $100 anywhere in Feb. One can play many of those courses for $60 or so. The golfers have been out in full force the last couple of years, but are unwilling to drop mega bucks to do it. The bars near the condo are full at 9:00 A.M., so money is flowing again...
I’ll be in Rehab by 2016 at this rate - and I may not come OUT depending upon who the new President is! :)
There’s not much more the Fed can do. They really are out of bullets. I suspect that Obama will not acquiesce even in the face of a GOP rout on Congressional races in the fall.
Obama and his cadres are true believers in a way that the Boy President wasn’t. Clinton needs to be liked and gets politics. He compromised and tactically cut around the GOP while coopting their program. He wraps himself in it all the time.
Obama will reject that and fight to the death. He’s taking Reid down with him along with the DNC. That’s why I believe little will change after the GOP takes over Congress. It will be better for us on judicial and other appointments, but Obama will still use every lever of federal power to undermine the free market.
So the next two years will be, hopefully, the GOP working to rein Obama’s abuses in and the 2016 POTUS will sit on the greatest economic expansion since the Lochner Era. Just undoing all the anti-business executive decisions would free up capital. The US could grow 5%+ in real terms as excess labor is brought into productive capacity and welfare/government debt is curtailed.
Agree completely. The Fed has done what it can do (and the right thing to do IMHO). It’s all been muted by the fiscal disaster in Washington on both sides of the aisle.
BTW your signature is perfect for this discussion :-)
Not sure why it is strange. Providing liquidity in a liquidity crisis is supposed to do exactly that. The problem is that it’s not working because of the crushing regulations and uncertainty coming from the fiscal side.
It’s always revised. Nobody should ever be surprised that estimates are revised when more data comes in.
We do a “flash’ report of our financials on day two of the month. It’s always different when we close 3 days later.
Is it always way off in one predictable direction?
Is part-time hires the reason the number of hires goes up and the rate goes up, too?
Isn’t it amazing how EVERY SINGLE ONE of obama’s “employees” are on the same page!
Have you ever studied University Economics by Alchian & Allen?
They make the correct argument that economics can only tell you the consequences of certain policies or conditions. It cannot tell you what is desirable. Its forecasting abilities are limited given the complexities of a 16 trillion dollar economy.
That’s why Chile did so well under the Chicago Boys. They taught Pinochet the correct policy. The people did the rest.