Ignore the Unemployment Rate (One of the most misleading numbers shaping our economy)

Wall Street Journal ^ | 02/07/2014 | By Zachary Karabell

[SeekAndFind]

The unemployment rate is one of the most consequential numbers shaping our body politic. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most misleading.

Today at 8:30 a.m., the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report, as it does at the start of every month. As usual, the announcement was widely covered in the financial and mainstream media—a convenient hook for commentary about the state of the economy, the arc of the recovery and the future of the U.S.

The unemployment rate was a central factor in the 2012 presidential election, with President Barack Obama seemingly defying a powerful historical trend and winning re-election while the rate hovered at 8%. It was used to justify the nearly $800 billion stimulus bill in 2009. And the rate has remained in the spotlight through the early weeks of 2014, as the 1.3 million Americans receiving long-term unemployment benefits have become a source of political theater and ideological debate.

The unemployment rate, in short, is one of the most consequential numbers shaping our body politic. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most misleading.

It isn’t just that the number is a statistical artifact, involving substantial estimation and frequent adjustments. Nor is it because the unemployment report as a whole combines two rather different surveys—one of 557,000 businesses and their payrolls, another of 60,000 households—each of which sheds a different light on the jobs picture.

The real problem is that the number, originally designed for limited purposes, has come to assume totemic status. Focusing so single-mindedly on this one employment figure has made it impossible to have a cogent discussion of labor in the U.S. and to design meaningful responses to our varied economic problems.

[NEPA]

I attended a jobs workshop at the county employment office last month and the presenter said there are 300-600 applications for every job posted by that office.

There is a serious employment (and under employed)crisis in many parts of the country and too many conservatives are brushing it off as lazy people that don't want to work.

I seriously fear that if it gets much worse-and it isn't getting better despite the BS numbers-there will be economic repercussions that may eventually cause a deep recession.

What really chaffs me is the pols in DC who want to take care of illegals but don't give a crap about the millions of Americans who are seriously struggling.

[DannyTN]

Free Traders believe it’s more important to employee Chinese than Americans. They believe import tariffs like our founding fathers put in place are bad.

By fostering policies that increase unemployment including low import tariffs, Free traders are the biggest enablers of big government that there is.

[Mastador1]

I attended a jobs workshop at the county employment office last month and the presenter said there are 300-600 applications for every job posted by that office.

I had a meeting with the folks at my county, the caseworker greeted me with a big smile and asked "How's it going", I looked at him and said, well I'm here, how do you think it's going? One of the most interesting things he told me is that they are having a huge problem with businesses not wanting to hire older applicants because they fear they will leave as soon as something better comes along. So I asked where someone would quit to go to when there isn't anything out there?

[DannyTN]

[NEPA]

they are having a huge problem with businesses not wanting to hire older applicants

I'm 57. Age is definitely a factor in having a hard time finding a job.

Actually I'm temporarily laid off from a job I can go back to but its pretty much only part time now, I used to make a decent living on it.

I wasn't eligible for state UC when I got laid off in October because I had too much earnings in 1 quarter that wasn't balanced out by the other 3. I was put on the fed extension from an old claim but now that's gone as well as my savings from being under employed for so long.

I got into a training program to drive trucks and I'm using credit cards to pay for gas to get there. A relative moved in with me and gives me a little money each week but I'm in a tough spot. Bills aren't getting paid, I'm almost out of heating oil.

I have never in my life been in this situation. I never needed to ask for help, I was the one that helped others.

For some reason I decided to write an email to Sen Toomey to let him know not every unemployed person is lazy as many conservatives imply. I knew it would be useless but I figured it can't hurt either.

I used Toomey's website to send it but when I hit "submit" it came back "invalid subject". I guess if its not a topic Toomey agrees with it just gets rejected.

[same old song]

Thank you. The economy today is not the same as the one my parents grew up in. Hard work does not always equal opportunity anymore, even though it once did. Some don’t understand this.

[stevem]

I’ve seen figures that put the real unemployment rate at 30-40%.

What we are going through is worse than the Great Depression. As counter productive as was the New Deal, at least the guvmint thought employment was better than unemployment.

These days we have at least the percent unemployed as at the height of the Great Depression. We also have many more legions underemployed. Plus our supposed natural born leaders are saying that's a good thing, and our unparalleled free press gives them cover.

Policies and laws are designed to make it worse. A depression is a recession until the government fixes it.

[RandallFlagg]

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