Posted on 02/07/2014 8:57:58 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The unemployment rate is one of the most consequential numbers shaping our body politic. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most misleading.
Today at 8:30 a.m., the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment report, as it does at the start of every month. As usual, the announcement was widely covered in the financial and mainstream media—a convenient hook for commentary about the state of the economy, the arc of the recovery and the future of the U.S.
The unemployment rate was a central factor in the 2012 presidential election, with President Barack Obama seemingly defying a powerful historical trend and winning re-election while the rate hovered at 8%. It was used to justify the nearly $800 billion stimulus bill in 2009. And the rate has remained in the spotlight through the early weeks of 2014, as the 1.3 million Americans receiving long-term unemployment benefits have become a source of political theater and ideological debate.
The unemployment rate, in short, is one of the most consequential numbers shaping our body politic. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most misleading.
It isn’t just that the number is a statistical artifact, involving substantial estimation and frequent adjustments. Nor is it because the unemployment report as a whole combines two rather different surveys—one of 557,000 businesses and their payrolls, another of 60,000 households—each of which sheds a different light on the jobs picture.
The real problem is that the number, originally designed for limited purposes, has come to assume totemic status. Focusing so single-mindedly on this one employment figure has made it impossible to have a cogent discussion of labor in the U.S. and to design meaningful responses to our varied economic problems.
(Excerpt) Read more at stream.wsj.com ...
Well wait for it. It’s clear we are working our way down to full employment——the Kenyan will tell us when we get there. Just a few million more layoffs ought to do it?
Our local news reported that unemployment is under seven percent, though one may drive around and see 20-30 percent of office, retail, and industrial space empty, for sale, or lease.
102 Million adults are NOT employed.
146 million Adults are employed.
Guess the real percent of adults unemployed.
DemocRat NO care will destroy another 2 million jobs soon - per the CBO.
Unemployment rates are down but FUNemployment is at an all time high.
RE: 102 Million adults are NOT employed.
146 million Adults are employed.
Guess the real percent of adults unemployed.
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That would be 248 potential workers in the US workforce. If as you say, 102 Million people are not employed, the REAL unemployment rate would be about 41% !!
BTW, where are you getting your numbers from?
91,455,000 adults gave up looking for a job [ not officially in the labor force, but still unemployed ] plus the 10,236,000 adults officially unemployed [ U-6 , from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ] .
Total 102 Million adults unemployed.
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/1154000-fewer-americans-working-today-6-years-ago
Birth & Death adjustment is extrapolation of past data. It tells them about expansion of the work force.
Obviously they can not survey every business, so it is just a statistical sample extrapolation.
Like I said, the only accurate count of jobs + self employed is how many people are paying social security tax. All earned income is subject to SS tax. Then divide that by adults of working age counted in the Census data and you will know the true picture.
Admittedly that number will show high unemployment because some people do not want to work at a job. But those people certainly should not be excluded from the ranks of unemployed.
The most critical and important point I want to make is the unemployment published number excluds anyone not actively looking for jobs because they have given up any hopes of finding a suitable job. I have read and heard there are 92 million adults without a job or self employment.
For example, I'm not eligible for unemployment comp, and if I lose my job I will be counted (if the survey-taker calls me).
“A “recovery” where people with skills work at Wal-Mart isn’t much of a recovery.”
A recovery where people with skills can’t get hired at Wal-Mart is even less of one.
What are the chances you will be called?
Unless you are actively registered with some gov’t agency as a job seeker, no one in the gov’t knows you are unemp-loyed nut looking.
Why do you think those unemployment numbers get significantly revised after a month lapses? Because they were severly extrapolated and are never accurate.
Just count how many are paying social security tax. Every single soul who has a job or self employed pays that tax. Everyone else is unemployed. Why do they have to be actively looking to be counted? Because it makes a rosier picture than it is.
It's fruitless to discuss how the number is inaccurate until you acknowledge it.
I should have said “Those are the ONLY accurate data the government has at their disposal.” Everything else such as surveys, extrapolation based on past data, seasonality, etc are subject to very high errors.
Just stop giving us these phony unemployment numbers which are always revised and even then they are not necessarily correct.
Just give me the exact count of social security tax collection data every 3 months. It is 99% accurate. And we already know last Census numbers for able bodied adults in the population.
DO not get hung up on my statement. Get with the crux of the problem, which is phony numbers given out by our government. Stop looking at trees and get lost in the forest. Build more maturity of thought. It is childish to pick on “statements” and miss the central object.
I don’t think you understand. If the object is to convince people that the government releases phony or otherwise inaccurate numbers (yes!), then you will get nowhere with them by arguing facts that are demonstrably false (no!).
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