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U.S. Adds 113,000 Jobs, in Latest Worrying Sign on Growth
The Wall Street Journal ^ | February 7, 2014 | Eric Morath And Josh Mitchell

Posted on 02/07/2014 5:41:02 AM PST by John W

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To: Wyatt's Torch
So the data in this chart, showing -66K with a net +113K is consistent with 350K new claims?
51 posted on 02/07/2014 8:02:43 AM PST by NY.SS-Bar9 (Those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for one.)
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To: shelterguy

The full time definition in post 35 is consistent throughout the data series.


52 posted on 02/07/2014 8:03:19 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

How about this question?

“So, why all the fuss about extending jobless benefits? After all, the unemployment rate is down again.”


53 posted on 02/07/2014 8:05:04 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

The WSJ became a leftist rag several years ago. I’d take anything they say with a grain.


54 posted on 02/07/2014 8:05:56 AM PST by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

So “full time” jobs are added. Is there a part of this report that says what kind of wages came with those jobs?

A friend of mine used to make 75 k a year. He just took a full time job that pays 18k. But it is still a “full time “ job, right?


55 posted on 02/07/2014 8:10:31 AM PST by shelterguy
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To: John W
Seems like overall the report is not good. Do you think the numbers are accurate?

Accurate? More like fake.

56 posted on 02/07/2014 8:12:54 AM PST by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9
Sorry I'm missing the -66K you are referencing on that chart.

The +113k is a bit light with an environment of +350k new claims. Remember that +350k initial claims is but one side of the equation. Difference is that other recoveries have been in the 4-6% GDP growth range. This time it has been 2-3% growth. The Initial Claims number doesn't bother me one bit. It's on the low side historically. The NFP growth number does bother me as does relatively weak GDP growth for the reasons I've outlined in another post in this thread (and numerous others).

Here is the trend of NFP, UE and Initial Claims over the last 25 years:


57 posted on 02/07/2014 8:15:19 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: shelterguy
All I have from FRED is this:


58 posted on 02/07/2014 8:17:33 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: John W

Read the Business Insider post at #49.

Rosenberg added in his testimony that the patchwork of state and federal benefits program might be distorting the signal sent by the LFPR as it may be incentivizing some people to stay out of the labor market.

“One theory that deserves examination is that we may have an abundance of separate benefits programs that provide for the disenfranchised in a very piecemeal and inefficient manner that are also perhaps abused or overly relied upon by some, which may lead to a distortion of work incentives,” he said.


59 posted on 02/07/2014 8:18:46 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: OrioleFan

The U3 number is a total joke. Not sure why it is even used as a reference at this point.


60 posted on 02/07/2014 8:53:13 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: nhwingut; All

What we need is Amnesty for illegals to add 15 million people to the mix. That is sure to help the unemployment rate/MEGA SARC


61 posted on 02/07/2014 8:55:10 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9
"350,000 new unemployment claims,"

That's from only one week.

"113,000 new hires"

That's from a month.

"and the unemployment rate drops 0.1

Reads like Pravda and Tass circa 1972.
"

Agreed. Well said.


62 posted on 02/07/2014 8:55:30 AM PST by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch
Leftsism, by any of its brand names, always fails economically, culturally and morally. ALWAYS


63 posted on 02/07/2014 9:11:17 AM PST by newfreep (Breitbart sent me...)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

You give only half the picture which makes all your conclusions on which it is based false.

Your graph is meaningless without taking into consideration job growth which has averaged 2 million created per year for the 40 years prior to 2008.

A job creation of 113,000/mon for a year would be 32% LESS jobs created than the historical average. That looms huge and an average unemployment claim number in the context of this employment figure bodes definitively ominous.


64 posted on 02/07/2014 9:18:56 AM PST by traderrob6
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To: Wyatt's Torch
My fault, I was reading the total jobs column.

The total for all sectors that lost employment is -52K for one month.

Still a heck of a lot different than 350K per week in new claims.

What am I missing?

65 posted on 02/07/2014 9:23:40 AM PST by NY.SS-Bar9 (Those that vote for a living outnumber those that work for one.)
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To: John W
The numbers may say slow growth but out here in the real world I’m not sure what’s growing

No kidding, we have more national chains and local businesses that have closed or are closing. How can anyone believe the government and democraps lies if they just look around what is happening around them. And we have a stupid media, full of democraps, that won't call anyone on it if fear it might harm their agenda. I truly hate our media.

CGato

66 posted on 02/07/2014 9:26:42 AM PST by Conservative Gato
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To: Wyatt's Torch

I really don’t think anything matters except that They want to just keep jamming everything higher with whatever counterfeit Fed money there is. Taper on, taper off, USD/JPY high, USD/JPY low, heavy POMO day, light POMO day, more jobs, fewer jobs, doesn’t matter. They have a script and a roadmap and They are going to stick to it. Today is one of three examples of something moving huge and then reversing just as hard and just as fast also for no reason, in the past week.

Just find two points before the open that make a rising trendline and that’s your guide to where They will be all day long, that’s what “investing” is these days.


67 posted on 02/07/2014 9:28:13 AM PST by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: Wyatt's Torch
"The average for the last 45 years is 363,000. Currently the 4WMA is 334,000 so this job environment is actually BETTER than average from an initial claims standpoint."

So you're saying the labor force has been the same for the last 45 years?

The better indicator of economic strength is the labor force participation rate.

I hope you're not a beliver in funemployment.

68 posted on 02/07/2014 9:57:29 AM PST by Justa
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To: Wyatt's Torch

I see you posting a lot of government statistics here in this thread. How can anyone in their right mind, given all the lies from the government and democraps with 0bamacare, among other things, trust anything the government and democraps put out today?

Seriously?

CGato


69 posted on 02/07/2014 9:59:54 AM PST by Conservative Gato
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To: Wyatt's Torch
You read the BI Kool-Aide?

Better yet:


70 posted on 02/07/2014 10:00:56 AM PST by Justa
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To: traderrob6

I’ve mentioned numerous times (even multiple times in this thread) that the recovery is weak by historical standards. Doesn’t make the data false.


71 posted on 02/07/2014 10:18:34 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Conservative Gato

People who just claim the data is made up and don’t post anything to back up their claim or other facts to support their claims just cannot be reasoned with. Ignore what is right in front of you. That’s your prerogative.


72 posted on 02/07/2014 10:20:37 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

What you are missing is the 350k claims are all part of the “churn”. As I mentioned, tens of thousands of people are hired and fired every day. Simplistically if you had this scenario:

Hired: 400,000
Fired: 350,000
Net: +50,000

The Initial Claims are the +350k and the NFP would be +50K. It’s not as simple as that because the data for each comes from different sources and survey’s but the concept is accurate.


73 posted on 02/07/2014 10:23:30 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: jiggyboy
Well I'll go ahead and solidify my reputation around here and comment that I've completely agreed with QE. It's the remedy when you are facing massive deflation. Yes DEflation. Bernanke was not going to make the same mistake the Fed did in the 1930's when they tightened too fast and set off the 37-38 recession.
74 posted on 02/07/2014 10:30:35 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
I question your upbeat assessment for jobless claims. The average, through all economies is 363,000, but that includes some nasty weeks in the 600,000's. I bet that the average weekly initial jobless claims in growing economies is considerably lower than that.
75 posted on 02/07/2014 10:35:09 AM PST by fhayek
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Don’t mean to be on your case but your initial conjecture for which I was responding stated:

these figures (unemployment claims/jobs added) were “well within normal range for a growing economy.”

Taken in context of claims/jobs added it most deinately IS NOT.


76 posted on 02/07/2014 10:44:27 AM PST by traderrob6
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To: Wyatt's Torch

You sound like a true statist. That’s where all the lies lead to is belief and preservation of big government which I am opposed. You can trust your statistics all you want coming from government, which is really made up of big government democraps and repubs, hell bent on preserving their big government and power through lies and deception.

But continue to trust them.

CGato


77 posted on 02/07/2014 10:45:21 AM PST by Conservative Gato
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To: traderrob6

Okay. That’s fair.


78 posted on 02/07/2014 10:48:10 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Conservative Gato

“You sound like a true statist’

LMFAO! Hilarious!


79 posted on 02/07/2014 10:48:48 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

When the government and democraps continue to lie to us and yet you still trust the info they put out, it’s your posts that are laughable, statist.

CGato


80 posted on 02/07/2014 10:52:57 AM PST by Conservative Gato
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To: Wyatt's Torch

That “churn” is grinding us right straight toward depression, not recovery from anything. With the fake unemployment rate down to 6.6 % we gotta be just a few weeks away from the Kenyan claiming we are at full employment——wait for it. And now that the Kenyan has liberated everyone from those boring drudgery jobs by giving them part time ones it shouldn’t be long before he announces the plan to pay the rent/mortgages for part-time liberated.
I notice in the above chart that gov’t employment is down. Who believes that? And that pretty much makes all the gov’t reporting suspect if not out and out corrupt.


81 posted on 02/07/2014 11:01:50 AM PST by cherokee1 (skip the names---just kick the buttz)
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To: fhayek
Well you can look at the chart:

At 334k it's on the low end of the range. Only a few times since the 1970's have dropped below 300K.

Some starts by president:

Obama's average(since January 2009) is 431,262 (low is 304,750, high is 660,250, media is 407,500)

W's average (Jan 2001 - Dec 2008) was 366,181 (low was 286,500, high was 564,000, median was 353,000)

Clinton's average was 328,568 (low was 266,520, high was 393,000, median was 330,625)

Reagan's average was 407,144 (low was 287,250, high was 674,250, median was 390,250)

82 posted on 02/07/2014 11:05:07 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Conservative Gato

You are seriously clueless. When you can’t post any rebuttal to the statistics that tells me all I need to know about your analytic capabilities.

Have a good day.


83 posted on 02/07/2014 11:06:26 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: cherokee1

Government employment is down... sorry it doesn’t fit your narrative.

People can ignore the data. If so you are missing out on some fantastic market returns. I’ve tried giving you the numbers. If you choose to not believe them then I just cannot help you.


84 posted on 02/07/2014 11:09:35 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

This is the kind of reply I get from liberals that see government as the end all, or to put it another way, in big government we trust.

Question: Given all the lies and deception we have gotten from the government and democraps in recent years, why do you trust their statistics now?

CGato

“Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”


85 posted on 02/07/2014 11:16:57 AM PST by Conservative Gato
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To: Conservative Gato

And making paranoid posts about government manipulation of data and calling people names is the kind of reply I expect from people on this board. Sadly it didn’t used to be this way. This place has changed a lot since I joined in 1999...

Why do I believe the numbers? Because it’s what I see in the market every day. I do financial and economic forecasting for a living. These numbers are very consistent with the results I see in my company.

“The essence of knowledge is, having it, to apply it; not having it, to confess your ignorance.”
~ Confucius


86 posted on 02/07/2014 11:30:30 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Paranoid? We have deceptions and lies from Obamacare, Benghazi, IRS scandal, Fast & Furious, just to name a few, to draw from and you think I’m paranoid? What kind of false reality do you live in? Liberals live in a false reality to, just saying...

CGato

PS, I’ve been here from the beginning as well but just started posting because I am so sick of this big-government-is-the-end-all statist culture we live in now. If that hits close to home, so be it.


87 posted on 02/07/2014 11:36:38 AM PST by Conservative Gato
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To: Conservative Gato

I’ve never disagreed with “deceptions and lies from Obamacare, Benghazi, IRS scandal, Fast & Furious’ so I have no clue what you are talking about...

And seriously, enough with the name calling. It just make you look foolish.

When you have something substantive to discuss regarding finance/economics I’ll respond. Until then I’m done with this conversation. It’s a waste of my time.


88 posted on 02/07/2014 12:13:56 PM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: John W
Good charts on Private vs Public Sector jobs (from Bill McBride's Calculated risk blog)

Private sector:

Public sector:


89 posted on 02/07/2014 12:20:59 PM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch
I have a question please regarding this post, in which deflation was mentioned and of the danger of such and is why you supported QE. My question ... How is inflation better for the economy than deflation?

I do agree that in a perfect world there would be neither deflation or inflation but with QE inflation was guaranteed. Incomes, for families, has decreased. How is inflation better for families when families have less money due to inflation?

90 posted on 02/07/2014 12:23:12 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: Conservative Gato
Funny thing about government statistics: the methodology used in the manner they are created is announced. It's somewhat odd that you would accuse someone of being a "liberal" for posting them, when they can be refuted by the information the agencies that post them provide.

So you are either lazy for not refuting them, or simply whining that someone is posting statistics with which you disagree.

91 posted on 02/07/2014 12:28:06 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Wyatt's Torch
Nothing to do with the chart but along the same line as was my prior post ...

Since wages have Deflated or remained flat (no growth) yet goods and services have Inflated or the prices have increased giving families less money with which to purchase goods and services, is this a cycle of growth or simply a cycle of wage deflation and goods and services inflation with growth an illusion based on QE?

92 posted on 02/07/2014 12:34:44 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: no-to-illegals
Deflation is far worse because of what it does on the asset value side and the result of that. When you are levered you are paying for that asset in current dollars when the value of that asset is declining. It leads to loans going under water. Creditors calling loans. Defaults. etc. Then it's much harder to sell assets when people expect the price to fall. the overall price level of everything falls including nominal wages. That's why it is often referred to a "deflationary spiral" or some call it a "death spiral". Look at Japan and what has happened to them over the last 20 years. Inflation is much easier to deal with.

Here's a good essay by noted supply sider Jude Wanniski called the Deflation Monster

The deflationary spiral:


93 posted on 02/07/2014 12:35:17 PM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Does not inflation eventually cause goods and services to create a similar cycle?


94 posted on 02/07/2014 12:37:01 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

my apology ... question should read ... Does not Inflation eventually cause goods and services prices to create a similar cycle if not identical cycle as Deflation?


95 posted on 02/07/2014 12:39:02 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: no-to-illegals

Good question. Real wages have declined really due to a lack of inflation which is “good” for the economy. When we see real inflation you will see rising wages. Right now there is slack in the labor market which is also not putting pressure on wages.

There is some commodity “inflation” but I’m not sure it’s monetary inflation as the overall price level has remained relative stable to slightly increasing. Things like oil, gold, corn are subject to exogenous factors not related to the monetary level.

Bernanke’s PhD was on the Great Depression and he believes that the Fed tightened too fast and caused the deflationary recession in 37-38. He has always said that he would never make that same mistake again. He was true to his word :-)


96 posted on 02/07/2014 12:41:05 PM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: no-to-illegals

It’s the reverse but yes similar. It’s just much easier to correct than deflation. The medicine is tough (see Volcker in 1981-82) but relatively short lived.


97 posted on 02/07/2014 12:43:33 PM PST by Wyatt's Torch
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Bernanke maybe was a PhD but ... we are now in uncharted territory (imho).


98 posted on 02/07/2014 12:43:53 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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To: no-to-illegals
Re: Why is deflation bad?

Individuals make economic decisions based on future expectations.

If you have deflation, then a rational consumer will put off all purchases until some time in the future, since stuff will be cheaper tomorrow.

When people delay purchases, economic activity decreases, and the depression gets worse ( a downward spiral).

99 posted on 02/07/2014 12:44:56 PM PST by j. earl carter
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To: Wyatt's Torch

(imho) a huge maybe ... it worked then because the tax code was reformed and made more business friendly. (imho) we do not have that similar situation as was at that time instead we have just the opposite. Still of the opinion we are in uncharted territory. Don’t know how this will end and we all have to wait and see because government has deemed it to be as such. Might be a long, long ride this time though with reform to the tax code making the tax code business friendly.


100 posted on 02/07/2014 12:46:55 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Scrutinize our government and Secure the Blessing of Freedom and Justice)
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