Skip to comments.U.S. Adds 113,000 Jobs, in Latest Worrying Sign on Growth
Posted on 02/07/2014 5:41:02 AM PST by John W
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The full time definition in post 35 is consistent throughout the data series.
How about this question?
“So, why all the fuss about extending jobless benefits? After all, the unemployment rate is down again.”
The WSJ became a leftist rag several years ago. I’d take anything they say with a grain.
So “full time” jobs are added. Is there a part of this report that says what kind of wages came with those jobs?
A friend of mine used to make 75 k a year. He just took a full time job that pays 18k. But it is still a “full time “ job, right?
Accurate? More like fake.
The +113k is a bit light with an environment of +350k new claims. Remember that +350k initial claims is but one side of the equation. Difference is that other recoveries have been in the 4-6% GDP growth range. This time it has been 2-3% growth. The Initial Claims number doesn't bother me one bit. It's on the low side historically. The NFP growth number does bother me as does relatively weak GDP growth for the reasons I've outlined in another post in this thread (and numerous others).
Here is the trend of NFP, UE and Initial Claims over the last 25 years:
Read the Business Insider post at #49.
Rosenberg added in his testimony that the patchwork of state and federal benefits program might be distorting the signal sent by the LFPR as it may be incentivizing some people to stay out of the labor market.
“One theory that deserves examination is that we may have an abundance of separate benefits programs that provide for the disenfranchised in a very piecemeal and inefficient manner that are also perhaps abused or overly relied upon by some, which may lead to a distortion of work incentives,” he said.
The U3 number is a total joke. Not sure why it is even used as a reference at this point.
What we need is Amnesty for illegals to add 15 million people to the mix. That is sure to help the unemployment rate/MEGA SARC
You give only half the picture which makes all your conclusions on which it is based false.
Your graph is meaningless without taking into consideration job growth which has averaged 2 million created per year for the 40 years prior to 2008.
A job creation of 113,000/mon for a year would be 32% LESS jobs created than the historical average. That looms huge and an average unemployment claim number in the context of this employment figure bodes definitively ominous.
The total for all sectors that lost employment is -52K for one month.
Still a heck of a lot different than 350K per week in new claims.
What am I missing?
No kidding, we have more national chains and local businesses that have closed or are closing. How can anyone believe the government and democraps lies if they just look around what is happening around them. And we have a stupid media, full of democraps, that won't call anyone on it if fear it might harm their agenda. I truly hate our media.
I really don’t think anything matters except that They want to just keep jamming everything higher with whatever counterfeit Fed money there is. Taper on, taper off, USD/JPY high, USD/JPY low, heavy POMO day, light POMO day, more jobs, fewer jobs, doesn’t matter. They have a script and a roadmap and They are going to stick to it. Today is one of three examples of something moving huge and then reversing just as hard and just as fast also for no reason, in the past week.
Just find two points before the open that make a rising trendline and that’s your guide to where They will be all day long, that’s what “investing” is these days.
So you're saying the labor force has been the same for the last 45 years?
The better indicator of economic strength is the labor force participation rate.
I hope you're not a beliver in funemployment.
I see you posting a lot of government statistics here in this thread. How can anyone in their right mind, given all the lies from the government and democraps with 0bamacare, among other things, trust anything the government and democraps put out today?
I’ve mentioned numerous times (even multiple times in this thread) that the recovery is weak by historical standards. Doesn’t make the data false.
People who just claim the data is made up and don’t post anything to back up their claim or other facts to support their claims just cannot be reasoned with. Ignore what is right in front of you. That’s your prerogative.
What you are missing is the 350k claims are all part of the “churn”. As I mentioned, tens of thousands of people are hired and fired every day. Simplistically if you had this scenario:
The Initial Claims are the +350k and the NFP would be +50K. It’s not as simple as that because the data for each comes from different sources and survey’s but the concept is accurate.
Don’t mean to be on your case but your initial conjecture for which I was responding stated:
these figures (unemployment claims/jobs added) were well within normal range for a growing economy.
Taken in context of claims/jobs added it most deinately IS NOT.
You sound like a true statist. That’s where all the lies lead to is belief and preservation of big government which I am opposed. You can trust your statistics all you want coming from government, which is really made up of big government democraps and repubs, hell bent on preserving their big government and power through lies and deception.
But continue to trust them.
Okay. That’s fair.
“You sound like a true statist’
When the government and democraps continue to lie to us and yet you still trust the info they put out, it’s your posts that are laughable, statist.
That “churn” is grinding us right straight toward depression, not recovery from anything. With the fake unemployment rate down to 6.6 % we gotta be just a few weeks away from the Kenyan claiming we are at full employment——wait for it. And now that the Kenyan has liberated everyone from those boring drudgery jobs by giving them part time ones it shouldn’t be long before he announces the plan to pay the rent/mortgages for part-time liberated.
I notice in the above chart that gov’t employment is down. Who believes that? And that pretty much makes all the gov’t reporting suspect if not out and out corrupt.
At 334k it's on the low end of the range. Only a few times since the 1970's have dropped below 300K.
Some starts by president:
Obama's average(since January 2009) is 431,262 (low is 304,750, high is 660,250, media is 407,500)
W's average (Jan 2001 - Dec 2008) was 366,181 (low was 286,500, high was 564,000, median was 353,000)
Clinton's average was 328,568 (low was 266,520, high was 393,000, median was 330,625)
Reagan's average was 407,144 (low was 287,250, high was 674,250, median was 390,250)
You are seriously clueless. When you can’t post any rebuttal to the statistics that tells me all I need to know about your analytic capabilities.
Have a good day.
Government employment is down... sorry it doesn’t fit your narrative.
People can ignore the data. If so you are missing out on some fantastic market returns. I’ve tried giving you the numbers. If you choose to not believe them then I just cannot help you.
This is the kind of reply I get from liberals that see government as the end all, or to put it another way, in big government we trust.
Question: Given all the lies and deception we have gotten from the government and democraps in recent years, why do you trust their statistics now?
“Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”
And making paranoid posts about government manipulation of data and calling people names is the kind of reply I expect from people on this board. Sadly it didn’t used to be this way. This place has changed a lot since I joined in 1999...
Why do I believe the numbers? Because it’s what I see in the market every day. I do financial and economic forecasting for a living. These numbers are very consistent with the results I see in my company.
“The essence of knowledge is, having it, to apply it; not having it, to confess your ignorance.”
Paranoid? We have deceptions and lies from Obamacare, Benghazi, IRS scandal, Fast & Furious, just to name a few, to draw from and you think I’m paranoid? What kind of false reality do you live in? Liberals live in a false reality to, just saying...
PS, I’ve been here from the beginning as well but just started posting because I am so sick of this big-government-is-the-end-all statist culture we live in now. If that hits close to home, so be it.
I’ve never disagreed with “deceptions and lies from Obamacare, Benghazi, IRS scandal, Fast & Furious’ so I have no clue what you are talking about...
And seriously, enough with the name calling. It just make you look foolish.
When you have something substantive to discuss regarding finance/economics I’ll respond. Until then I’m done with this conversation. It’s a waste of my time.
I do agree that in a perfect world there would be neither deflation or inflation but with QE inflation was guaranteed. Incomes, for families, has decreased. How is inflation better for families when families have less money due to inflation?
So you are either lazy for not refuting them, or simply whining that someone is posting statistics with which you disagree.
Since wages have Deflated or remained flat (no growth) yet goods and services have Inflated or the prices have increased giving families less money with which to purchase goods and services, is this a cycle of growth or simply a cycle of wage deflation and goods and services inflation with growth an illusion based on QE?
Here's a good essay by noted supply sider Jude Wanniski called the Deflation Monster
The deflationary spiral:
Does not inflation eventually cause goods and services to create a similar cycle?
my apology ... question should read ... Does not Inflation eventually cause goods and services prices to create a similar cycle if not identical cycle as Deflation?
Good question. Real wages have declined really due to a lack of inflation which is “good” for the economy. When we see real inflation you will see rising wages. Right now there is slack in the labor market which is also not putting pressure on wages.
There is some commodity “inflation” but I’m not sure it’s monetary inflation as the overall price level has remained relative stable to slightly increasing. Things like oil, gold, corn are subject to exogenous factors not related to the monetary level.
Bernanke’s PhD was on the Great Depression and he believes that the Fed tightened too fast and caused the deflationary recession in 37-38. He has always said that he would never make that same mistake again. He was true to his word :-)
It’s the reverse but yes similar. It’s just much easier to correct than deflation. The medicine is tough (see Volcker in 1981-82) but relatively short lived.
Bernanke maybe was a PhD but ... we are now in uncharted territory (imho).
Individuals make economic decisions based on future expectations.
If you have deflation, then a rational consumer will put off all purchases until some time in the future, since stuff will be cheaper tomorrow.
When people delay purchases, economic activity decreases, and the depression gets worse ( a downward spiral).
(imho) a huge maybe ... it worked then because the tax code was reformed and made more business friendly. (imho) we do not have that similar situation as was at that time instead we have just the opposite. Still of the opinion we are in uncharted territory. Don’t know how this will end and we all have to wait and see because government has deemed it to be as such. Might be a long, long ride this time though with reform to the tax code making the tax code business friendly.