Skip to comments.US Dec. nonfarm payrolls total 74,000 vs. 200,000 est.; unemployment rate at 6.7% vs. 7% est.
Posted on 01/10/2014 5:42:52 AM PST by John W
Job creation stumbled in December, with the U.S. economy adding just 74,000 positions even as the Federal Reserve voted to take the first steps in eliminating its stimulus program.
The unemployment rate dropped to 6.7 percent, below economist estimates and due primarily to continued shrinkage in the labor force. The labor force participation rate tumbled to 62.8 percent, its worst level since January 1978.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
How can the rate drop when fewer than expected jobs are being created?
More funny math.
2/3 of the decline in U3 related to participation rate
U6 remains constant at 13.1%
Hey kids! It’s fun with numbers Friday! 6.7%! ROTFL! That’s 6.7%, PERIOD!!!
More people off the UE system not being counted.
Just arbitrarily reduce the denominator until you get the stats you want.
PS Chocolate rations will be increased to 15 grams per week.
So then let’s use U6 as the number, not U3.
This is silly and everyone knows it.
The unemployment rate has lost all meaning other than as a propaganda tool. The labor force participation rate is far more meaningful and shows the continued spread of a dependency culture with the government fostering programs that encourage sloth in a hundred ways.
What’s really going on out there? The numbers make no sense. We are dropped precipitously to 6.7% with essentially no job growth. The population is growing faster in December than the job increase.
I understand all the discussion we’ve had about people leaving the workforce and/or going to disability...and I get that. but even accounting for that, I don’t see how we could see that kind of drop. In my personal look around, I am not seeing anyone in my friend circle without a job, like a few years ago, but I do know a number of people doing worse than 5 years ago. It is really hard to figure out what’s going on out there with these numbers.
Because more people have given up looking for work and when they do that they are no longer counted as being unemployed. If they gave the rate for people of working age who aren't working the numbers would be a lot different.
It’s silly. The only thing to follow is U6 and the participation rate at this point.
I guess we don’t need to extend the unemployment insurance.
Probably about 19%.
When the measured workforce shrinks and folks are deemed to no longer be “looking for work”, they are no longer counted as “unemployed”.
This is a political lie to improve prospects in the 2014 midterms.
If the denominator declines and the numerator stays flat the percentage declines. That’s the point of the labor force participation rate.
One of the structural issues with the labor force participation rate is demographics. Baby boomers are retiring. The rate has been declining since the late 90’s (i.e. this is nothing new).
There are, of course, issues with job growth that are impacting the participation rate.
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!
I am constantly amazed how ‘progressives’ use these figures. On one hand they present an improving economy with 8 million jobs produced, but on the other they have dire predicaments of the unemployment death spiral. Which is it?
Now they go up cause this will slow taper talk.
And December is typically a strong month for job creation with seasonal hires. This is simply pathetic.
What a joke. Terrible news, but the headline will look great to the low-informationers. Obama will crow about this in the State of the Union, but if things are so great, how come we can’t cut extended unemployment benefits, Fed stimulus or have the sequester cuts? Good lord, we are six years into the ‘recovery’’, and the economy still needs life support.
What a bunch of cr*p statistics.
Obviously unemployment isn’t getting better.
We need JOBS.
Not fiddling with statistics. Bring back US jobs.
From Business Insider:
The Jobs Report just came out and it was very bad.
The 74K new jobs was much worse than the 200K that was expected.
But at the same time, there was a HUGE drop in the unemployment rate, from 7.0% to 6.7%.
There was also a big drop in the Labor Force Participation Rate, which helps the unemployment rate to fall.
So now Janet Yellen has a slightly tricky position. This number does not suggest an economy that’s hitting “escape velocity.” But on the other hand, we’re getting closer to unemployment levels where the Fed might be inclined to tighten. But on the third hand, we don’t know how “clean” that unemployment number is because fo the ongoing decline in Labor Force Participation Rate.
So things just got a bit trickier for Janet Yellen, who now doesn’t have a smooth path out of the current plan.
No all of these numbers are seasonally adjusted and account for those sorts of things. Seasonal adjustments are used to make all data point comparable.
We’ve got the most corrupt government on the planet right now.
Somebody is doing something right.
And the weekly chocolate ration has been increased from 30 to 20 grams!
Obama be praised!
“The unemployment rate dropped to 6.7 percent, below economist estimates and due primarily to continued shrinkage in the labor force. The labor force participation rate tumbled to 62.8 percent, its worst level since January 1978”
The attempted Forced Federal Concentration Camp U.S. Territory is going to meet total resistance by the free people.
It’s all my fault. I just changed my TSP allocations.
Oh, no! Look at all those unemployed moochers that so many at FR hate! And they all voted for Obama! They deseve what they get!
The unemployment rate is a ratio. The denominator is the number of persons in the labor pool. The denominator is slipping faster than the numerator which is the number of new unemployed.
The labor pool is shrinking because people have given up or are underemployed and are working multiple jobs. Persons who take a second or third job are not reducing the number of unemployed.
When the underemployed and frustrated are factored in, the unemployment rate is well over 16%.
Personally I know people that are still waiting to bounce back from 2009. In the next 5 to 6 years I don’t think they will ever have the opportunity.
I have heard from several young people that they have taken second and third jobs. Although they are naturally upbeat at their young age they are increasingly frustrated. They’re also bright enough to know that dramatic increases in the minimum wage will result in losing a job or two.
Under Obama the USA is in decline largely because of his policies.
I heard that kind of number last week -- it was be in the very high 11% range. Just this report probably raises that to the low 12% range now, which would in fact be in the 13%'s if we didn't count the military as "persons employed" as we did before they made one of their "adjustments" in the the 1982 recession.
Notice in the chart it was even lower pre-1979. That’s because there were a lot more single income families back then.
Good luck with getting the MSM to use U6 instead of U3. Here on FR, the always-wrong kindergarten economists were ridiculing such a notion and fighting it hammer and tong at least as far back before the housing bubble blew up.
This is a political lie to improve prospects in the 2014 midterms.
This is only going to get worse for those who depend on the public believing those numbers.
Back then, you didn’t have to work three jobs to support your government leech.
“But on the other hand, were getting closer to unemployment levels where the Fed might be inclined to tighten”
And due to Federal attempted takeover (higher prices-—watch prices rise even further), the smaller number of EMployed will be paying higher and higher to federal program scams, including the Extortion-Care attempt.
Indeed. It’s important to note that they were single income families because they didn’t need to be two income families. Now in many cases single-income families used to be two income families and they’re in trouble. Any participation number today in fact signifies far more economic distress than a comparable number back then.
At this rate, we’ll be at “full employment” by June!
Funny math, indeed. At this rate the endgame is a reported unemployment rate of near zero, with those employed working for the government. /S
Because more people are hoping in the wagon then pulling it.
The Fed stops buying U.S. debt and interest rates on our debt will go up. Interest rates rise and the economy slows (plus we will have pay a higher debt service payment on the national debt). I do not envy Janet Yellen one bit. She is in the corner, out of paint, and the door is on the far side of the room.
When there are only 500 people left in the labor force, and all of them have a job, the unemployment rate will be 0%, and Democrats will credit Obama’s economy. What a farce these numbers are.
“Labor force participation rate” is a statistical lie designed to shield the politicians from reaping the fruits of their “labors”.
My wife just quit her job here in central KY. It’s because it paid the going rate around here, less than ten bucks an hour, and I can make up for an entire week of her income in just a few hours of overtime. And this saves us all the expenses incurred by her working outside the home. And they are not just monetary. She quit the end of the year and already I feel like I got my wife back. Now she can work and plan the garden, likewise the future livestock, plan our new house, make custom dog food for our dog, you name it.
Both spouses working outside the home is a very expensive proposition.
It’s Official: The US Created Less Jobs In 2013 Than 2012
The Fed spent over $1 trillion in 2013 (to push the stock market to all time highs) and all we got was... less jobs created than in 2012?
Quite possibily. Full Employment is reached when no one is working, thus the push for higher minimum wages and entending unemployment benefits - which as we all know increases jobs ... /s
This was not unexpected news. this is what the 5th unemployment extension fight is about. Reid and Obama want to paper over the fact the this is a jobless recovery.
here is a paragraph that explains what is going on
Senate Democrats on Thursday offered a new plan to revive federal unemployment benefits until mid-November and pay the $18 billion price tag with new spending cuts, but hopes of a bipartisan deal dissolved into bickering by day’s end.
“The package does what the Republicans wanted,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, said on the Senate floor. He said the cost of renewing the jobless benefits for about 1.4 million long-term unemployed Americans would be “entirely paid for” and would contain “structural changes they (Republicans) were demanding.
Keeping these 1.4 million people who have exhausted their total 99 weeks of unemployment benefits, the longest in history only makes sense for Obama. It keeps these people off his back when he refused the Keystone XL pipeline, lowering CAP gains taxes, cutting the fed government.
Also, by coincidence 1.4 million more people lost jobs in the 5 Obama years, and unemployment benefits are Obama’s answer to growing the economy. I always thought only JOBS,
JOBS, JOBS grew the economy.