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How many Americans will be using an iPhone when the US Smartphone Market Saturates? [68% in 2017]
Asymco [Analyst] ^ | December 13, 2013 | Horace Dediu

Posted on 12/16/2013 8:02:05 AM PST by Star Traveler

As previously noted, the US smartphone market has followed an almost perfectly logistic growth. The measured data (via comScore, in green below) follows a predictive logistic function (thin blue whose formula is discussed here).

The other notable market observation is how closely the iPhone follows the same pattern as the market. The red line representing the iPhone above is almost perfectly parallel to the green and blue lines which represent the overall market. The reason for this seems to be that consumers are absorbing the product in similar way to how they are absorbing the technology.[1] The “learning model” which underpins logistic models could offer clues as to the cause. It suggests that there is a direct communication that happens between the product and the consumer.

Incidentally, the reason other platforms do not follow this pattern is that they are not communicating value with the consumer but with manufacturers or distributors of the product. These alternative communications could create faster or slower growth than the overall market as they are not subject to the same large population imitation/learning models.

(Excerpt) Read more at asymco.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: androids; apple; iphone; smartphones
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Anything that passes 2/3 rules whatever it is that it's in. If we're talking about politics, if you pass 2/3 support - you rule. If you're talking about capitalism and the market, if you pass 2/3 - you rule.
1 posted on 12/16/2013 8:02:05 AM PST by Star Traveler
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To: Swordmaker

Here’s something for your list ... :-) ...


2 posted on 12/16/2013 8:02:53 AM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: Star Traveler

I finally got a SmartPhone this summer but it is an Android. I justified it because I now have a long drive to/from work and need to be able to check on weather/traffic that could change even as the trip is underway.

Most of the rest of it is just vanity to justify its own existence. But I have successfully circumvented the big carriers and big contracts by signing with Consumer Cellular. You can tailor you monthly cost based on how much you use your phone so if you aren’t a phone addict, you can keep the cost to a reasonable price.

Incidentally, that final third will either find cheap alternatives to the iPhone (hand-me-downs or cheap knock-offs), not buying the spiffiest, newest toys. The folks who *need* one are already invested.


3 posted on 12/16/2013 8:10:21 AM PST by OrangeHoof (Howdy to all you government agents spying on me.)
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To: Star Traveler

Not me. I can’t afford a dumb phone much less a smart one................


4 posted on 12/16/2013 8:18:58 AM PST by Red Badger (Proud member of the Zeta Omicron Tau Fraternity since 2004...................)
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To: Red Badger
Not me. I can’t afford a dumb phone much less a smart one................

Not even Virgin Mobile at $10 a phone and $7 per month for service?

5 posted on 12/16/2013 8:20:30 AM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Not after I got my Obamacrap letter from my soon to be former insurance company.................


6 posted on 12/16/2013 8:22:05 AM PST by Red Badger (Proud member of the Zeta Omicron Tau Fraternity since 2004...................)
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To: Red Badger

Here’s a neat trick ... I turned my iPad into a phone, also - by using an existing magicJack account, and adding their app to the iPad. Voila ... an iPad that is a phone, too ... :-) ...


7 posted on 12/16/2013 8:23:08 AM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: OrangeHoof

I went smartphone last Jan. I went Android as well. I went the Straight Talk route. $45 a month, unlimited talk,text, and data with no contract. They are on the Verizon network so I even get service at work out in the middle of the desert. I dumped my sattelite radio and now stream Pandora in my truck going back and forth to work. I should have gone smartphone sooner.


8 posted on 12/16/2013 8:23:22 AM PST by sean327 (God created all men equal, then some become Marines!)
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To: Star Traveler

I believe Apple will fall at some point, and here’s why:

Apple is to phones what Microsoft is to PCs. Apple has a lock on their proprietary platform, but there are tons of manufacturers out there designing phones for Android/GoogleOS. Non-proprietary Linux-based operating systems are growing at a rapid clip, and many younger kids are starting to dabble in Linux since Microsoft’s essentially trying to imitate Apple in their “shiny exterior” way.

As more people realize the options available to them on the Droid platform, they’ll start looking at other (cheaper) phone alternatives since Apple’s price points are locked to maximize profits. Cheaper phone and freedom to install your own preferred flavor of Google/Droid/ChromeOS means more of the market, esp. for tech nerds, will migrate this route.

Google is also much more “open source” for their operating systems meaning more APIs are available to code to for app programmers. There are a lot more cool/fun gadgets coded to Droid phones, and those that are ported to Apple iOS are often done so AFTER they’re coded for Droid.


9 posted on 12/16/2013 8:30:53 AM PST by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: sean327

“I went smartphone last Jan. I went Android as well. I went the Straight Talk route. $45 a month, unlimited talk,text, and data with no contract.”

I went smartphone several weeks ago. I have been using tracfone for many years and built up quite a few minutes since I rarely use it. Recently bought their ZTE Valet (80 bucks with 600 each of data, text, minutes). Works great. It is far and away better than the LG800 I had previously. Seriously, there is no comparison. Its an Android, has GPS, can use all the apps but the nicest thing is that all calls txt data etc from your home wifi are free. If you buy the 1 year service card it is only $99 a year.


10 posted on 12/16/2013 8:31:49 AM PST by Brooklyn Attitude (Things are only going to get worse.)
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To: Star Traveler

I experimented with that same thing this weekend but discovered the Ipad was too damn big to hold in one hand and drive at the same time.


11 posted on 12/16/2013 8:31:51 AM PST by Dexter Morgan (Everyone hides who they are.)
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To: Star Traveler

Could you send me some info?................


12 posted on 12/16/2013 8:32:15 AM PST by Red Badger (Proud member of the Zeta Omicron Tau Fraternity since 2004...................)
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To: Dexter Morgan

I have the iPad in the car, but I don’t try to talk on it while I’m driving ... LOL ...

However, when I’m at a red light, I have been known to reply on Free Republic ... :-p

But, if you did want to do that, you might try an iPad Mini. Also, a hands-free set up would work, too.


13 posted on 12/16/2013 8:36:27 AM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: Star Traveler
Smartphones have been a detriment to human interaction. So has Facebook and other web social networks.

Really? You need to tell the World about every little thing you do at every moment? You had eggs for breakfast rather than pancakes? You ran 1.3 miles rather than 1.2? I "Like" something.

Why do so many think that every little thing they do is so important that they have to alert their so-called "friends" which also appears to the entire world?. What a dumb*ss competition that is. I have, 10, 50, 100, 200, a gazillion "friends".

They are not friends, they are just people who follow inane comments everyone makes on Facebook, etc. Remember e-mail or phone calls or physical presence? Those are "friends".

And no, I'm not a techno-phobe. I'm actually somewhat of an audio/video tech. I could go to any of these "smartphone" types and set up an entire theater system when many wouldn't have a clue where to start. However, I don't feel the need to tell that to my "friends" on Facebook or Tweeter. Screw social media - it's dumbing us down further.

14 posted on 12/16/2013 8:36:46 AM PST by A Navy Vet (An Oath is Forever!)
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To: Star Traveler

Did you use an OTG cable?


15 posted on 12/16/2013 8:40:01 AM PST by Dalberg-Acton
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To: Red Badger

Well, let me tell you how it transpired for me and that will explain it. I first got a magicJack at the store which could be hooked up to a router (like the one you probably already have at home). I got magicJack initially just to use as an extra line at home, that’s all. But later on, it turned out we really weren’t using it that much.

I thought about transferring it to my desktop computer - but before I did that, I noticed a magicJack app on the Apple App Store.

So ... I got the app just to try it out. And it had the process in the app to use your existing magicJack account. I simply filled in the account info, in the app — and there it was — making and receiving calls ... :-) ...

Therefore, you just need to get a magicJack account (i.e. “phone number”) and then get the magicJack app from the App Store, and fill it in (with the account info). That’s about it.


16 posted on 12/16/2013 8:44:25 AM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: Star Traveler

I wonder if there is an app for Android based tablets?.................


17 posted on 12/16/2013 8:47:33 AM PST by Red Badger (Proud member of the Zeta Omicron Tau Fraternity since 2004...................)
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To: A Navy Vet

Well, I would agree about the usage of most social media - but that’s not (in and of itself) a smartphone.

A smartphone is extremely useful for a lot of other stuff, and that’s what I like.


18 posted on 12/16/2013 8:48:35 AM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: Red Badger

I’m sure magicJack makes an Android version of that app.


19 posted on 12/16/2013 8:49:31 AM PST by Star Traveler (Remember to keep the Messiah of Israel in the One-World Government that we look forward to coming)
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To: Star Traveler

I just need a damned flip phone.


20 posted on 12/16/2013 8:50:45 AM PST by headstamp 2 (What would Scooby do?)
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