Obamacare will be unpopular no matter when it’s implemented. The question is what strategy delivers the Senate and retains the house in 2014?
Boehner (and the GOP) should not wonder why the GOP base doesn’t trust them. They are victims of their own track record. They want to preach limited government, but practice big government. At least the Democrats are consistent-—they practice what they preach-—without shame or guilt or second thoughts. They are tactical and strategic political practitioners. They never lose sight of their goals; they have their eyes on the prize at all times. They march in lock step and are all reading from the “same sheet of music.” They are a well-oiled, albeit evil, machine. They care not a fig for the poor and the downtrodden, but cynically use them to acquire and maintain power.
The GOP, on the other hand, has no strategic, long-term goals. They pay lip service to conservative, limited-government, free-market ideals, but have no plan, or even intention, to codify their professed beliefs into law. Unlike the Democrats who march in lock step in pursuit of long-term objectives, the GOP is as organized as a herd of feral cats. They are here, there, and everywhere—a ship without a compass or a rudder. They are an adversary’s dream—spineless, disorganized, and lacking the courage of their stated convictions, save holding office. They cynically play their base like fools.
So excuse me if I am slightly less than convinced the GOP will finally “win one for the Gipper.” Once again, their base will be angry beyond words, swear they’ll never vote Republican again, and reflexively reelect Boehner, McConnell, Cantor and Co. once again. It’s an all too familiar script.
How about a strategy that wins the Senate and strengthens the House?
We need to elect some aggressive Senators, but I don’t see too many in the wings or too many capable candidates. Do you?
That would have been to let it take effect last year, so that people would be having to enroll just before the 2012 election, and would have to be paying the penalty on their taxes for not enrolling on April, 2014.
But, that's water under the bridge, now. Enrollment this year, along with timely warnings about the penalty for not enrolling in October, 2014, would do the same thing. This will be a great campaign issue next fall:
"You will have to pay a $95/adult and $47.5/child penalty in April, 2015, when you file your taxes if you didn't enroll in Obamacare. In 2016, it will be $325/person. In 2017, it will be $695/per person. If you want to stop this, vote for me."
(It's actually more complicated than that, and there are additional thresholds that are used if they are higher, like 1%, 2%, and 2.5% of your income, in successive years).
This is a huge deal. The Republicans are fumbling away a golden opportunity to say: "We tried to stop it, and now you can see why". No more hypothetical arguments: it's real, and it's happening now.