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There's Almost No Chance Russia's Plan for Syria's Chemical Weapons Will Work
Foreign Policy ^ | 09/11/2013 | Yochi Dreazen

Posted on 09/11/2013 7:35:57 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Russia's proposal for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to place his chemical weapons under international supervision and then destroy them is quickly gaining steam. Assad's government accepted the plan this morning.

A few hours later, President Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Francois Hollande announced that they'd seriously explore the proposal. It already has the backing of United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and a growing number of influential lawmakers from both parties. There's just one problem: the plan would be nearly impossible to actually carry out.

Experts in chemical weapons disposal point to a host of challenges. Taking control of Assad's enormous stores of the munitions would be difficult to do in the midst of a brutal civil war. Dozens of new facilities for destroying the weapons would have to be built from scratch or brought into the country from the U.S., and completing the job would potentially take a decade or more. The work itself would need to be done by specially-trained military personnel or contractors. Guess which country has most of those troops and civilian experts? If you said the U.S., you'd be right.

"This isn't simply burning the leaves in your backyard," said Mike Kuhlman, the chief scientist for national security at Battelle, a company that has been involved in chemical weapons disposal work at several sites in the U.S. "It's not something you do overnight, it's not easy, and it's not cheap."

The decades-long U.S. push to eliminate its own chemical weapons stockpiles illustrates the tough road ahead if Washington and Damascus come to a deal. The Army organization responsible for destroying America's massive quantities of munitions says the effort will take two years longer than initially planned and cost $2 billion more than its last estimate.

(Excerpt) Read more at thecable.foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; News/Current Events; Russia; United Kingdom; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: chemicalweapons; davidcameron; europeanunion; france; francoishollande; hitlersrhineland; iran; israel; lebanon; maheralassad; potassiumfluoride; russia; sarin; sodiumfluoride; syria; thebrotherdidit; unitedkingdom; waronterror

1 posted on 09/11/2013 7:35:57 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s not supposed to work. But Obama bought it.


2 posted on 09/11/2013 7:37:09 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SeekAndFind

Then what is the affirmative action POTUS to do? Bomb Assad and allow the MB and AQ groups to take-over the country to commit mass murder against the other religious groups living in Syria?


3 posted on 09/11/2013 7:38:07 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike ("Governing a great nation is like cooking a small fish - too much handling will spoil it." Lao Tzu)
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To: SeekAndFind

It depends on what your definition of “work” is.


4 posted on 09/11/2013 7:38:43 AM PDT by workerbee (The President of the United States is DOMESTIC ENEMY #1)
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To: SeekAndFind

Russia is going to control the chemical weapons that the Russians said the Syrians didn’t have and didn’t use.
Umm......sure.


5 posted on 09/11/2013 7:40:26 AM PDT by AppyPappy (Obama: What did I not know and when did I not know it?)
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To: dfwgator

He didn’t buy it. He knows. It fits in with his intention to diminish the USA and it’s influence.


6 posted on 09/11/2013 7:42:23 AM PDT by Daveinyork
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To: SeekAndFind

Russia will have boots on the ground.


7 posted on 09/11/2013 7:43:08 AM PDT by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: Darksheare

I’m not so sure they don’t already.


8 posted on 09/11/2013 7:44:00 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SeekAndFind

Which is the beauty of what Putin did to obama courtesy of Kerry.

A total rout of obama’s policies.


9 posted on 09/11/2013 7:47:16 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Why haven't we heard from the 30 Benghazi survivors?)
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To: dfwgator

Spetnaz probably.


10 posted on 09/11/2013 7:48:39 AM PDT by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: Darksheare

I would hope they would make a beeline for those Christian villages....Putin would score a huge PR victory if they found out his troops rescued Christians from the Islamo-Fascists.


11 posted on 09/11/2013 7:49:43 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: AppyPappy
Russia is going to control the chemical weapons that the Russians said the Syrians didn’t have and didn’t use. Umm......sure.

Well, the Russians moved them out of Iraq just before the invasion..., remember? Now I guess they will contract with Iraq to "dispose" of the chemicals and move them there?

12 posted on 09/11/2013 7:50:07 AM PDT by ExSES (the "bottom-line")
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To: dfwgator

Darn autocorrect!
Spetsnaz.
With an “s” you toopid phone!

Mobile phone, not so smert.
You need to backspace and fight to get it to not mess with things.


13 posted on 09/11/2013 7:51:29 AM PDT by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: SeekAndFind

It already worked. It got Obama out of the corner he had painted himself into, which is all he cares about.


14 posted on 09/11/2013 7:51:33 AM PDT by Hugin
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To: dfwgator

And it would be a huge black eye for the big eared guy.


15 posted on 09/11/2013 7:52:37 AM PDT by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: workerbee
Chemical Weapons aren't stockpiled. Their precursors are. They are mostly legitimate Dual Use chemicals that are legal otherwise. Hydrogen Fluoride (Teflon)Isopropyl Alcohol. Looking at some now. So, don't mix it with your toothpaste.
16 posted on 09/11/2013 7:52:42 AM PDT by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: dfwgator

The decades-long U.S. push to eliminate its own chemical weapons stockpiles illustrates the tough road ahead if Washington and Damascus come to a deal. The Army organization responsible for destroying America’s massive quantities of munitions says the effort will take two years longer than initially planned and cost $2 billion more than its last estimate.<<

Did anyone else notice we have stockpiles of WMDs that have been outlawed for more than one hundred years?

DK


17 posted on 09/11/2013 7:54:15 AM PDT by Dark Knight
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To: Darksheare

The first time I tried to use a smart phone to post here, after three or four short posts I got permabanned...Dead serious. This after being a member with not so much as a warning for 13 years.

I don’t use a smart phone to post any more.


18 posted on 09/11/2013 7:54:47 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind

so?

There was zero chance that Bubba’s “light water reactors for no nukes promise in North Korea” plan would work and I bet “FP magazine” supported it to the hilt.

Everyone involved in that deal knew that NK would renege. They knew North Koreans think “it’s your deal not ours”.


19 posted on 09/11/2013 7:55:44 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: cuban leaf

It is different.
I can say that much.


20 posted on 09/11/2013 7:57:30 AM PDT by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free..... Even robots will kill for it!)
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To: SeekAndFind
There's Almost No Chance Russia's Plan for Syria's Chemical Weapons Will Work.

It's tied Obama's inept scheme in knots and prevented him from moving forward. Assad's air force is back in action. Russian arms deliveries have resumed. I'd say it's already accomplished most of what it was supposed to.

21 posted on 09/11/2013 7:57:43 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: SeekAndFind
It won't work, and it won't matter.

Obama just needed a way out, and got one.

Unless another chemical attack occurs, this situation ends with a stronger Assad, a stronger Russia, and a relieved Obama. In a year we'll be asking "whatever happened to that 'turning over chemical weapons' agreement that involved Syria?"
22 posted on 09/11/2013 7:59:44 AM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: SeekAndFind

If it keeps us out of there, who cares if it works or not?


23 posted on 09/11/2013 8:00:27 AM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: SeekAndFind

It sounds great in theory and it can’t work in practice. Standard liberal SOP.


24 posted on 09/11/2013 8:01:17 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (Government: Slimy used car salesmen writing laws forcing you to buy their cars)
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To: SeekAndFind
Why can't Assad's own army move all the weapons to a port facility on the Med where they would be loaded onto a ship? His air force would cover the movements. Our drones could observe the whole thing. Disposal could be handled later.
25 posted on 09/11/2013 8:01:45 AM PDT by ryan71 (The Partisans)
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To: SeekAndFind

OR....move the chemical weapons BACK to Iraq where they came from. That’s a brilliant plan.


26 posted on 09/11/2013 8:04:34 AM PDT by ryan71 (The Partisans)
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To: dfwgator
I would hope they (Russian troops) would make a beeline for those Christian villages

That would simply be a wonderful thing for civilization, but it would not be good for Obama's reputation.

I vote to put civilization first.

27 posted on 09/11/2013 8:04:43 AM PDT by Leaning Right (Why am I holding this lantern? I am looking for the next Reagan.)
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To: Leaning Right

F Obama’s Reputation.


28 posted on 09/11/2013 8:05:17 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SeekAndFind

Of course it won’t. No one believes it’ll work. But if it keeps us out of there and it delays WWIII, then I’ll play along.


29 posted on 09/11/2013 8:06:17 AM PDT by bgill (This reply was mined before it was posted.)
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To: dfwgator

You are correct, ‘Gator, as you usually are.


30 posted on 09/11/2013 8:16:53 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Uncle Miltie: Obama poisoned race relations for a generation. Everything is racial now.)
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To: SeekAndFind

LOL. THE PLAN is not intended to work. It is intended to delay. And that part of the plan will work. Fortunately.


31 posted on 09/11/2013 8:19:52 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Dark Knight
Did anyone else notice we have stockpiles of WMDs that have been outlawed for more than one hundred years?

Well, Obama lied about that "outlawed for one hundred years" thingy.

They weren't outlawed until 1997 according to this Wiki page:

1993: The United Nations Chemical Weapons Convention was signed by 162 member countries, banning the production and stockpiling of many chemical weapons, including sarin. It went into effect on 29 April 1997, and called for the complete destruction of all specified stockpiles of chemical weapons by April 2007.[27]

32 posted on 09/11/2013 8:24:01 AM PDT by BigBobber
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To: dfwgator

Dig down through the hoop-a-la and you will see the ploy that all nations, including the USA, will not only promise not to use WOMDs but also that all such weapons will be under the control of UN inspectors. Putin has corraled the USA and friends who no doubt have the makings.


33 posted on 09/11/2013 8:30:28 AM PDT by noinfringers2
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To: mmichaels1970

“Obama just needed a way out, and got one.”

Yep. For 0bama it’s off to the next shiny new object. The next thing, only thing, we will hear about Syria will be how Assad has crushed the rebellion (with Russian weapons) and won. It will be a five second blurb on ABC about 90 days from now.


34 posted on 09/11/2013 8:31:45 AM PDT by henkster (democrats will sacrifice the lives of our servicemen so 0bama doesn't look bad.)
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To: SeekAndFind

In the speech, Obama said that Syria, “Violated International Treaty” by using Chemical Weapons.

Syria is NOT a party to the Chemical Weapons Treaties, so how could they have violated them???

And no one in the media has dared to ask this question, but Russian media sure is.


35 posted on 09/11/2013 8:33:32 AM PDT by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s not supposed to work. It’s supposed to end talk of US military action, establish Putin as the dominant force in the world, and allow Assad to retain his advantage in the Syrian civil war, the only price being that he will have to be a little more discreet about what he does.

That it saves face of Obama is merely one Marxist doing a favor for another.


36 posted on 09/11/2013 8:43:15 AM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: dfwgator

“It’s not supposed to work. But Obama bought it.”

Syria received them from Iraq. There is no evidence that the government in Syria has used them.

This whole operation by Obama was not about chemical weapons. It was about installing Obama’s fellow terrorists in yet another Muslim country.

The plan by the Russians will get the bulk of the chemical weapons out of circulation. That’s a good thing... Unfortunately it won’t get rid of the ones in the possession of Obama’s friends.


37 posted on 09/11/2013 8:43:38 AM PDT by babygene ( .)
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To: SeekAndFind

Communists lie a a matter of course. Islamofascists lie as a matter of course. That’s all you need to know.


38 posted on 09/11/2013 8:43:45 AM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: SeekAndFind
It was never meant to work.

Putin knows that the last thing that the Democrats in Congress and President want is public exposure of Assad's chemical and biological WMD inventory.

This is because much of Assad's WMDs are actually Saddam missing “Bush Lied, People Died” that were transferred out of Iraq, with Russia's and Putins (Russia's President at the time) help, just before the US invaded.

Congress, including the Democrats, was fully aware of the transfer via intelligence briefings.

Democrats lied about Saddam's WMDs to undermine the war effort in Iraq and to destroy the Bush Presidency, which they came close to doing.

Putin knows that the Democrats simply cannot afford to have the truth about Syria's WMDs exposed to the public because if the truth came about how badly the Democrats lied to undermined Bush's War on Terror it would be devastating.

The real truth about the Iraq war was that the Democrats and Media lied and American soldiers and Iraqi civilians dies unnecessarily due to an insurgency aided and given unwarranted legitimacy by the lies about Saddam’’s WMDs

This is a Putin master stroke and an explicit personal threat to the President and the Democrats in Congress and they know it. Putin and Syria have a lot of implicit blackmail leverage over the whole bush lied, people died crowd and have outmaneuvered President Obama so badly it's laughable.

What is going to happen is that the US is going to pay to astronomical cost of disposing of old, dangerously unstable and obsolete WMDs while Obama makes sure everyone looks away while Assad gets to keep any and all of his WMD weapons stores.

Russia now owns Syria and will openly help Assad destroy the insurgency and Obama’s under the table efforts to install a Egypt/Libyan Muslim Brotherhood /Al Qaeda puppet government in Syria has failed.

The Arab Oil States brokering the insurgency now know that America will not help them and so they are isolated and would have to face Russia and Iran in a direct war if they overtly help the Syrian insurgents. They know they would lose such a conflict and see their oil fields destroyed (which would not bother Putin's oil income dependent Russia one bit)

The insurgents are now isolated and doomed.

As usual, Russia's Putin is playing Geo Political Gran Master Chess on a Chess Board that the US has had a lock on for 20 years while President Obama is in the lavatory adjoining the Oval Office playing with himself.

39 posted on 09/11/2013 8:45:50 AM PDT by rdcbn
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To: dfwgator
It’s not supposed to work. But Obama bought it.

You are CORRECT. Obunga was played like a fine Stradivarius so as to prevent himself from having to take any kind of action.

Leading from FAR, FAR BEHIND.

40 posted on 09/11/2013 9:26:30 AM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: tcrlaf

In the speech, Obama said that Syria, “Violated International Treaty” by using Chemical Weapons.<<

I believe the administration’s line has been international “norms”, and then talk about everyone else being a party to a treaty. Makes you wonder if he’s gonna start rethinking that whole “Gay Marriage” norm thing.

BTW
It’s none of government’s business who you marry. It’s a religious rite, and between you, your partner(s) and God.

DK


41 posted on 09/11/2013 10:01:40 AM PDT by Dark Knight
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s already worked. Obama’s had his clock cleaned. But now, of course, he’s likely to be more of a danger to America than ever before (unless the congress puts him in his place).


42 posted on 09/11/2013 10:30:03 AM PDT by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

If it is so difficult how did Saddam manage it and keep it a secret?


43 posted on 09/11/2013 2:06:31 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: Straight Vermonter

Bribery to the outside world and terror within his country. We did find stocks of various prohibited material, including binary nerve gas shells, specifically used as a really bad IED, it fizzled. It was filled with WMD gas in a regular looking artillery shell. But of course no matter what they found, the media always said it did not count.

DK


44 posted on 09/11/2013 5:45:21 PM PDT by Dark Knight
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks SeekAndFind.
Experts in chemical weapons disposal point to a host of challenges. Taking control of Assad's enormous stores of the munitions would be difficult to do in the midst of a brutal civil war. Dozens of new facilities for destroying the weapons would have to be built from scratch or brought into the country from the U.S., and completing the job would potentially take a decade or more. The work itself would need to be done by specially-trained military personnel or contractors. Guess which country has most of those troops and civilian experts? If you said the U.S., you'd be right. "This isn't simply burning the leaves in your backyard," said Mike Kuhlman, the chief scientist for national security at Battelle, a company that has been involved in chemical weapons disposal work at several sites in the U.S. "It's not something you do overnight, it's not easy, and it's not cheap."

45 posted on 09/12/2013 6:16:46 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's no coincidence that some "conservatives" echo the hard left.)
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