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Letís face it: The US job market is dead in the water and not getting better
American Enterprise Institute ^ | 09/08/2013 | James Pethokoukis

Posted on 09/09/2013 6:52:47 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

090613jobs

How do you know the August jobs report was pretty bad? When the best thing you can say is that it might have met Wall Street expectations if not for a temporary shutdown in the porn industry last month. (The motion picture and sound recording industry lost 22,000 jobs in August, according to the BLS.) Sure, the White House can argue, as economic adviser Jason Furman did right after the report’s release, that the “incoming economic data broadly suggest that the recovery continues to make progress.” But consider the following:

1. This was the jobs report that was supposed to reflect an economy kicking into higher gear. Goldman Sachs, for instance, was looking for 200,000 net new jobs. And whisper estimates were even higher. Instead, the economy added just 169,000 jobs vs. the 180,000 consensus forecast.

2. What’s more, June and July were revised down by 74,000 jobs, putting the three-month average at a paltry 148,000.

3. Even at 169,000 jobs a month, it would take an unbelievable 9 years and 10 months to return to pre-Great Recession employment levels, according to Brookings. See you in 2023 — assuming no recessions between now and then.

4. Sure, the unemployment rate fell to 7.3%. But that’s only because the labor force participation rate fell to a 35-year low. If it were still at January 2009 levels, the unemployment rate would be 10.8%. As RDQ Economics cautions, “This continued fall in participation should give pause to those who argue that the decline is cyclical and will be reversed.” In other words, the US faces a permanently larger pool of jobless Americans.

5. The employment rate — the share of the non-incarcerated, non-military working-age population with any job — also fell and remains dead, dead in the water. (See above chart).

One reason for that, notes the Economic Policy Institute is “our 3.8 million “missing workers … workers who have dropped out of, or never entered, the labor force due to weak job opportunities in the Great Recession and its aftermath.” If they were in the labor force looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 9.5% instead of 7.3%.

6. Recall that according to the Obama White House’s 2009 stimulus forecast, August 2013 should have been the 2nd straight month at 5% unemployment:

090613romer

7. The median unemployment duration actually increased to 16.4 weeks from 15.7 weeks in July, while the share of the unemployed without work for 27 weeks and longer jumped to 37.9% from 37.0%. There are 3 million more long-term unemployed today — four years after the end of the recession — than before the recession.

8. Worst of all, this jobs report could be a signal that the US economy is not about to accelerate as many are forecasting. IHS Global Insight:

This report confirms our outlook of lackluster economic growth for the second half of the year. The headline establishment survey number, 169,000 jobs, more or less continues a trend over the past several months, as does the downward tick in the unemployment rate. … There are other negative aspects of this report from the household survey. While this survey is considered to be a less precise measure of employment on a month-to-month basis, total employment fell by 115,000 in contrast to establishment survey gains.

Moreover, the size of the labor force shrank by 312,000 in August, following a smaller decline in July. Virtually all of this decline can be traced to men; the number of women in the labor force increased in August. This suggests that much of the decline came from occupations that are male-dominated, such as construction, and that many former workers are becoming discouraged about their job prospects and dropping out of the labor force as a result.

9. Looking at a rolling, 3-month average of job numbers from the more volatile household survey, economist Robert Brusca asks, “Where did the full time jobs go over the last SEVEN MONTHS?”

Bottom line: Yes, the economy is growing, but not at a rate generating very many jobs, either full-time or part-time. The jobs recovery seems to have stalled. It’s not getting better.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: jobs; unemployment

1 posted on 09/09/2013 6:52:47 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Tell me about it.


2 posted on 09/09/2013 6:53:51 AM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Bring back American jobs.

Stop exporting American jobs.

Buy American.


3 posted on 09/09/2013 6:54:04 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: SeekAndFind
Whatsamatteryou ?
Did we run out of excuses after 5 years of "Bashing BUSH " ?
Sooner or later , someone is going to have to come up with a plan ,rather than excuses
and I don't see that comming out of this administration !
4 posted on 09/09/2013 6:57:56 AM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt (Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm. -- James Madison)
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To: SeekAndFind
Let’s face it: The US job market is dead in the water and not getting better

Don't worry. Obama Makes Jobs His #1 Priority…Again

See. When you are "the one" things can be fixed with a wave of the hand.

5 posted on 09/09/2013 6:59:58 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Muzzie killing muzzie what's the downside and who am I to stop them ?)
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To: SeekAndFind
I heard a statistic this morning that really gives me concern :
that "96% of black high school drop-outs are unemployed".
I wonder what they will do for income ? /s
6 posted on 09/09/2013 7:00:40 AM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt (Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm. -- James Madison)
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To: SeekAndFind
It's so simple only a Democrat could fail to see it.
Remove all recent government created impediments and costs of running a business and businesses will start growing.

7 posted on 09/09/2013 7:02:58 AM PDT by BitWielder1 (Corporate Profits are better than Government Waste)
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

become obamacare navigators?


8 posted on 09/09/2013 7:03:18 AM PDT by silverleaf (Going to war without the French is like going hunting without an accordion.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Is this the reason the DOW is up 100 points at this moment?

It seems what’s good is bad, and what’s bad is good, last week Syria drove the market down a little, this week although nothing changed, the market is up.

I know there is a lot more to it than that, but remember when the market went up on good news and down on bad, you could count on it.


9 posted on 09/09/2013 7:05:43 AM PDT by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt
THIS WAS FROM 2009, BUT THE FIGURES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THEN...

10 posted on 09/09/2013 7:06:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

11 posted on 09/09/2013 7:08:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Let’s face it: The US job market is dead in the water and not getting better

Lying Media Propagandist Scum: Yeah, but just think how bad it would really be if Sparky the Wonder Prez wasn't "focusing like a laser beam" on the problem. We'd really be in trouble then.

12 posted on 09/09/2013 7:08:51 AM PDT by Common Sense 101 (Hey libs... If your theories fly in the face of reality, it's not reality that's wrong.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The reelection of Barack Obama was a clear indication of where this puppy is going. The Productive Members of society know who’s going to have to pay and pay and pay....


13 posted on 09/09/2013 7:12:06 AM PDT by griswold3
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ve never understood how any kid could think it wise to drop out of high school.


14 posted on 09/09/2013 7:13:05 AM PDT by DonaldC (A nation cannot stand in the absence of religious principle.)
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

[Re: Dropouts] “I wonder what they will do for income? /s”

Welfare, if they’re too lazy to steal.


15 posted on 09/09/2013 7:13:12 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: SeekAndFind
And those statistics for graduation rates don't include the "Dumbing Down " of the American educational system.

16 posted on 09/09/2013 7:14:20 AM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt (Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm. -- James Madison)
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To: Pearls Before Swine
Pearls Before Swine ~:" Welfare, if they’re too lazy to steal."

Or Drug sales , burglary, and other 'property crimes'.
With all the time on their hands , there will be more opportunity to procreate.
Already there are states that are reducing prison population, by Federal mandate, due to overcrowding.
The future , to say the least , is bleak !

17 posted on 09/09/2013 7:19:40 AM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt (Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm. -- James Madison)
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To: griswold3
The reelection of Barack Obama was a clear indication of where this puppy is going.

Exhibit A: those chilling speeches where he admonished his peeps to "vote their revenge".


18 posted on 09/09/2013 7:28:45 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind

OBAMA FOCUS ON JOBS:

January 2009: “My economic agenda ... begins with jobs.”

November 2009: “This is my administration’s overriding focus.”

January 2010: “We are going to have a sustained and relentless focus over the next several months on accelerating the pace of job creation, because that’s priority No. 1.”

September 2010: “Our No. 1 focus has to be jobs, jobs, jobs.”

December 2010: “My singular focus over the next two years is ... jump-starting the economy so that we actually start making a dent in the unemployment rate.”

January 2011: “My principal focus, my No. 1 focus, is going be making sure that we are ... creating jobs not just now but well into the future.”

November 2011: “The president is focused like a laser on passing the American Jobs Act, on making sure we put people back to work.” (Debbie Washerwoman-Shultz)

November 2012: “Our top priority has to be jobs and growth.”

February 2013: “Our first priority is making America a magnet for new jobs and manufacturing.”


19 posted on 09/09/2013 7:29:05 AM PDT by Iron Munro ("You bring me the man, I'll find you the crime" - Lavrentiy Beria [and Eric Holder])
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To: SeekAndFind

BHO doing the job the Russians and Chinese just won’t do. Destroying America.


20 posted on 09/09/2013 8:00:39 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt
IIRC the only growth in full time jobs is from Government hiring - and those are hiring 60%+ women.

Very expensive employment for the jobs created.

SIEU is the only union showing any growth in its ranks - all from gov’t hiring.

21 posted on 09/09/2013 9:13:42 AM PDT by texas booster (Join FreeRepublic's Folding@Home team (Team # 36120) Cure Alzheimer's!)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

I’ve been using this decades old McDonald’s commercial to demonstrate the absolute benefits of free trade. Take a look:

http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1490134670001?bckey=AQ~~,AAABBjeLsAk~,DhYCBe7490KsWT5hIzt-NQcasGnRcAt8&bctid=1675213489001

What you’ve read in the article above is the continuous failure of government intervention in the economy. It’s a century long failure.

Better that government simply stepped out of the way of commerce. Much of the labor problem is a direct result of poor government education coupled with anti-commerce local, county and state laws.


22 posted on 09/09/2013 11:04:58 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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