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To: edpc

That is not a good analogy. The situation is different. There isn’t a revolution in Syria. Its a religious war, with sunni takferi groups wanting to cleanse the region of anyone who is not sunni, especially Shiites who they hate more than anyone.
Provoking Israel to attack Hezbollah would be the stupidest move ever, because Hezbollah would open up a second front while a large amount of their fighters are not even in Lebanon. Hezbollah and Assad are winning in Syria, the longer it drags out the more their numbers will decline and their morale will dwindle.
You are forgetting that Hezbollah will never quit fighting the extremist Sunnis, because regardless if they fight back or not the extremist sunnis still will want to wipe them out, the same goes for the Alawites(Assad regime).
If you think that they will magically unite because Israel will strike Lebanon, you seem to forget about 2008 where Sunni politicians wanted to dismantle hezbollahs telecommunications networks in Lebanon which were highlighted as being one of the key elements which allowed them to fight effectively against Israel in 2006.
There are already elements in Lebanon (Takferi groups) that are trying to spark violence against Shiites.
Why would Hezbollah launch 4 small rockets blindly into Israel? They have nothing to gain, there is no one to unite, they would open up another front(and a much deadlier one at that)
What do free Syrian islamists have to gain? Hezbollah will need to move back most of their fighters from Syria. Hezbollah would be caught between the Israelis and the extremist sunnis. Syria will probably be taken over by the islamists.

If Israel gets involved now against Hezbollah in Lebanon it will be a kingmaker, essentially handing over control of two countries to sunni extremists which is not in their interests. Their best move is to keep the status quo in Syria, and hve Hezbollah lose fighters and the sunnis not gain control.

In any case, I believe it was said in Israel that Hezbollah did not launch the rockets, and I trust the Israelis have eyes in south Lebanon 24/7.
Makes sense to me that its sunni groups that are trying to instigate something to divert hezbollahs attention in Syria.

25 posted on 08/22/2013 5:07:41 PM PDT by hannibaal
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To: hannibaal
It's a perfect analogy to the overall idea of the initial question, but not necessarily to the specific incident.

Case in point: Hamas is now feeling the squeeze with the removal of Morsi. After leaving their Damascus HQ in protest over the Syrian conflict, they are again speaking to Hezbollah and Iran with hat (or turban) in hand.

The central point of the outreach revolves around the individual groups' opposition to Israel.

26 posted on 08/22/2013 6:54:52 PM PDT by edpc (Wilby 2016)
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