GREAT THINGS ARE AFOOT
Posted on 07/03/2013 1:40:05 PM PDT by null and void
This newly public company is bringing something to the table in the 3D printing world, says Paul Goodwin of Cabot Wealth Advisory.
My favorite growth stocks with enormous potential are those that involve a "disruptive technology," or have the potential to be disruptive. For example, Apple (AAPL) disrupted the computer and other markets by the time its growth phase ended.
But disruptive technologies aren't easy to recognize. By definition, they don't fit into any existing model, so they can seem odd and unlikely. I remember one critic asking, after Apple introduced the iPad, "but what can you really do with it?"
And some people throw the term around, using it for something trivial, such as a "disruptive" toothbrush technology or a "disruptive" light bulb.
(The disruptive light bulb would be Cree's (CREE) LED bulbs, which last for many years, use less energy and don't generate heat. But that's not really disruptive, that's just better. Cree bulbs will still screw into the same sockets as the old incandescent bulbs and the fatally flawed compact fluorescent bulbs. A great product with big potential, but not a disruptive one.)
My candidate for a genuinely disruptive technology is the emerging 3D printing industry. For most people, 3D printing is just a novelty that will allow home users to create plastic toys or neat-looking iPhone cases. But for manufacturers, the technology has rocketed past the novelty phase into a mature business.
3D printers have often been seen as a way to produce fast prototypes of products. But machines can now create industrial parts in steel and bronze, construct intricate sand molds for investment casting, and do large-scale manufacturing of plastic objects and parts. And they can do so in increasing quantities.
So why is this disruptive? It's because traditional manufacturing involves a web of suppliers for parts and a closely monitored supply chain that includes delivery and warehousing. Companies must expend capital to order parts in advance, to have them delivered, and to store enough of them to meet current demand. It's an art in itself, and has spawned a computer software sub-industry devoted to supply chain management.
But a 3D printer can short-circuit that entire process. Parts can be manufactured on site exactly when needed, and only as many as needed. The only lag time is the time it takes the printers (or printers) to actually do the work. And the design specifications can be entered directly via computer.
The companies that manufacture 3D printers are also manufacturers in their own right, producing custom runs of products in various materials. Manufacturing setup and breakdown times and costs are much lower with printers, allowing quick changeovers.
Think of what the Xerox copier did for the paper-publishing world. 3D printers could do this for many big firms in the manufacturing world.
Two of the big kids on the 3D printing block right now are Stratasys (SSYS) and 3D Systems (DDD). But I have another candidate that I favor. It's ExOne (XONE), a manufacturer of 3D printers that has a global footprint and a unique array of products.
Last year, about two-thirds of ExOne's revenue came from manufacturing, and just over one-third from printer sales. But in the first quarter, printer sales accounted for nearly 60% of revenue.
It's still early in the evolution of this big change in the manufacturing industry, but ExOne—despite its small size ($34 million in annual revenue)—could be a leader. The company also offers very specialized laser micro-machining services that command a premium price.
XONE has only been trading since its IPO in April, but it has put together a strong chart with no big pullbacks. If the thought of getting in early on a truly disruptive technology appeals to you, this may be your chance.
Ping for later
Love it. Always interested in megatrends. The advances in medicine alone using this technology are already remarkable. I read yesterday a University in England is making prosthetic limbs. Truly an revolutionary technology.
Do you realize that in a few years time, we will be able to print out edible Egg McMuffins in 3-D?
I know, it sounds crazy but the fact is, the technology will soon exist to recreate edible materials using 3-D printing. In fact, you can 3-D print a hamburger right now but it will set you back $300,000.
But those are for the early adopters who have a lot of disposable income to toss around. But you know, eventually the economy of scale will kick in and people will be soon printing out their hamburgers for under a dollar.
But forget about hamburgers. Right now, I'm obsessed over 3-D printing my own Egg McMuffins. Not the ridiculous "egg white" ones being advertised by the McDonald's corporation but my own style of Egg McMuffins that will be rich in yolk and dripping with melted Swiss cheese.
Now the new egg-white only Egg McMuffins are very, very disturbing to me. They are basically taking the best part of the egg away (the yolk) and doing exactly what with it? Throwing it away? Blasphemy!
What is McDonalds doing with all those yolks? I was hoping that they would come out with a yolk-only (no egg white) Egg McMuffin but I have not seen it yet. So just where are those yolks ending up?
Some are shorting it now; I'm looking to get back in but I think it's overpriced for now.
It's almost tripled since February, still an IPO.
I got in a while back. It has been on a heck of a run the last few days. I am wondering if there is a takeover in the offing.
I prefer the sausage and egg biscuits. I wish I knew what brand of sausage they use, thought I had it once, maybe Johnsonville. The ones the closest I've found are pre-cooked but a little too spicy.
They are using 3D printers in bakeries, saw a video on that, too. Extrudes decorative frosting.
Just because you make it 3D doesn't necessarily mean it will tasate as good. But sometimes the egg picks up flavoring from something previously cooked on the grill that puts them a little off.
Within the last month I got 100 sh of Hasbro because I read it was hot, it wasn't doing anything fast enough to suit me so I sold it at a slight loss and jumped into Libbey. Now that has very low volume and I had watched it move up from 20 and was tickling 24 and 25 but wasn't doing anything fast enough and all got caught in the turbulence of the last month.
So I dump LBY and buy INTC at what looked like a decent price for them which promptly goes down. LBY was up a little higher to where I could have made a little more if I'd held on to it or jumped back into Hasbro lol. I was just playing with those 3 with leftover capital.
GREAT THINGS ARE AFOOT
There is also DDD stock. Up & down, slow climb. I think there will come a time where the growth is a little more exponential.
Political power grows out of the nozzle of a 3-D Printer.
What do you guys think about SSYS and Makerbot? I am not sure what to make of it. I am surprised Makerbot would get in bed with SSYS. The open source approach goes against the SSYS mentality, although lately they seem to have reversed some of that.
Sorry, don’t know a thing about them. Will look them up later.
For the love of all that’s holy, put all your money in Wellington and step away from the brokerage account. You will thank me in twenty years....
But I'm not very good at it and wanted to learn to daytrade, a little at a time because it is the most risky. Is this Wellington part of Vanguard? Maybe I can get it through Scottrade, probably not. They have lots of mutual funds and eft's; I just haven't gotten into that yet.
However, professional equities are probably better if you use funds so I will look into the one you recommended. Thank you.
If you’re having fun with it, go to town- just making sure you’re using Vegas money and not anything you’re actually going to need back for rent or retirement.
If you’re trying to grow money to pay for things you might need down the road, I highly recommend going here:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212
Follow the directions and you will be sure to receive serious, thoughtful advice. As far as Wellington goes, it is a Vanguard mutual fund. It’s a good choice for a forty-something investor who doesn’t want to think about it anymore.
bmfl
Thank you for the link. I will start reading up on that. Now INTC is down on a good day, bad business news. I'm beginning to think this is not for me.
It's not fun any more when you keep losing.
Today is a good day, did very well, will probably pull back. But I hope this bull business keeps up. A lot have broken loose.
It is a no load but does have a TF and I can get it through Scottrade. So when I shuffle things around, I may put some into that. You were right. 10,000 doubled in 10 years.
I have to think about how I can work things in. Thanks so much. I looked at their mutual funds some months back; none appealed to me but one, tried to buy some of that and would have had to call for help.
I found this one (there might be a Wellington series of several, I think there is) through a screener based on performance.
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