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The GOP and Hispanics: What the Future Holds
Real Clear Politics ^ | June 28, 2013 | Sean Trende

Posted on 06/28/2013 1:03:41 PM PDT by neverdem

This is the third part in a series exploring whether the GOP really needs to pass a comprehensive immigration reform package to continue winning elections (Parts one and two are here). It's worth re-emphasizing that this series isn’t intended to offer a policy prescription. The purpose here is to challenge the almost universally unchallenged argument that the only real debate is whether the GOP will die a slow death or a fast one if it doesn’t back the bill.

What really motivates Hispanic voters?

One of the assumptions lurking behind the immigration debate is that Hispanics spurn Republicans in large part due to identity politics, with immigration as a primary motivator. But there’s usually precious little data offered up to buttress this assumption, aside from the occasional generic poll question of “How important is issue this to you?”

But dig down. When Pew asked Hispanic voters what the most important issue was in 2012, immigration ranked near the bottom of the list. At the top of the list was jobs, just as it was for whites. In the 2008 exits (the last presidential election for which we have full data), a majority of Hispanic respondents told the exit pollsters that they didn’t care much about immigration (regardless of how they ultimately voted), or that they cared a lot (but voted Republican).

Many point to George W. Bush’s performance with Hispanic voters, especially compared to Mitt Romney’s, as evidence that the immigration reform issue is crucial. After all, Bush was strongly in favor of a path to citizenship, and exit polls show him winning 45 percent of the Hispanic vote (though many analysts believe this likely overestimates his share of the Hispanic vote). But there are two counters here.

First, consider a different Bush, George H.W. He had many of the...

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: amnesty; gophispanics; immigrationbill

1 posted on 06/28/2013 1:03:41 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Future holds nada as long as the objective is free stuff from the government and turning a blind eye to illegal immigration.


2 posted on 06/28/2013 1:06:02 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: neverdem

Utterly laughable.

Arithmetically challenged.


3 posted on 06/28/2013 1:24:39 PM PDT by Regulator
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To: neverdem
Its real easy.

Once you discard the premise that we are all created equal and start trying to tailor your appeal to different ethnicities the game is over.

The democrats win.

4 posted on 06/28/2013 1:29:56 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: neverdem

I think the GOP is going to open the border and lose the votes of everyone in the process.


5 posted on 06/28/2013 1:36:26 PM PDT by Tzimisce (The American Revolution began when the British attempted to disarm the Colonists.)
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To: neverdem

What would happen if EVERYONE joined the Democrat party?

Where would the demons come from?

Hmmmmmmm...


6 posted on 06/28/2013 1:42:27 PM PDT by Walrus (America died on November 6, 2012 --- RIP)
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To: Tzimisce
I concure. I will be re-registering as an Independent for the next election.
7 posted on 06/28/2013 1:44:34 PM PDT by 5th MEB (Progressives in the open; --- FIRE FOR EFFECT!!)
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To: neverdem

Amnesty started with the Republicans and Ronald Reagan,

WHERE ARE THE MILLIONS of Hispanics and their Children and their Childrens Children voting REPUBLICAN!?!?

NOT!

We screwed ourselves! WHY do it again?


8 posted on 06/28/2013 2:01:59 PM PDT by chicagolady (Mexican Elite say: EXPORT Poverty Let the American Taxpayer foot the bill !)
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To: neverdem

***...Bush was strongly in favor of a path to citizenship,...***

Who - Mr. ‘Family values don’t stop at the Rio Grande’? Actually, it is more accurate to state he was willing to erasing the borders entirely, a la North American Union Treaty.

GOP is only using the ‘Hispanics won’t like us unless we do this’ excuse to fulfill their dreams of making us into a regional entity; a dream that failed more than a decade ago.


9 posted on 06/28/2013 2:05:01 PM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: neverdem

What happens to the pissed off honkies?


10 posted on 06/28/2013 2:14:11 PM PDT by Sybeck1 (Marco is a good conservative. Rush and Mark tell me that everyday.)
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To: Regulator

One word comeback to them........California. ;)


11 posted on 06/28/2013 2:31:41 PM PDT by sheana
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To: neverdem

When the House doesn’t pass amnesty Rubio switches party.


12 posted on 06/28/2013 2:47:39 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Fight the culture of nothing.)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines; skeeter; Tzimisce; Walrus; 5th MEB; chicagolady; MichaelCorleone; ...

Did any of you read the essay, or did you just react to the title?


13 posted on 06/28/2013 3:07:11 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: neverdem

What the future hold?
Nada!


14 posted on 06/28/2013 3:08:44 PM PDT by peteyd (A dog may bite you in the ass,but it will never stab you in the back.)
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To: neverdem

Almost. I reacted to ‘what really motivates hispanics?’.


15 posted on 06/28/2013 3:16:11 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: neverdem
Sure did. Especially the paragraph that begins with: “But dig down.”

So let me ask you - what issue do you have with what I posted? Do you disagree? Or is it that you don't want the brilliant GOPe master plan to be discredited?

16 posted on 06/28/2013 3:28:28 PM PDT by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: MichaelCorleone

I think the GOPe is talking to hear itself talk for blowing an election with Romney that should have been in the bag.

Dreams about a North American union are just that, dreams. Mexico and Canada can’t go with the Second Amendment for starters.


17 posted on 06/28/2013 3:53:51 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: neverdem

Interesting how they never get into the religious difference within the Hispanic vote.


18 posted on 06/28/2013 4:59:11 PM PDT by ansel12 (Libertarians, Gays = in all marriage, child custody, adoption, immigration or military service laws.)
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To: Tzimisce

The GOP is finished. It tried to be Democrat-Lite at the very least, and in some instances even tried to out-Democrat the Democrats. And it happily tossed conservatives under the bus.

The GOP deserves the ignominious death towards which it is headed.


19 posted on 06/28/2013 5:41:46 PM PDT by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
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To: neverdem

There’s no such thing as an “Hispanic voter”. Attempts to discern what motivates this mythical creature are fruitless.

There are white Cubans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Argentinians, Chileans, etc who are motivated by the same things we are.

Then, there is an invading army of Indians (Mayans and Aztecs) and mixed breeds from Mexico and Central America who are part of the free s*** army.

Treating them as the same is absurd. We should be encouraging the former and rounding up for deportation the latter.


20 posted on 06/28/2013 5:47:43 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: neverdem
The GOP has NEVER gotten a majority of the Hispanic vote.

If the GOP tried as hard to get the Conservative vote as it tries to get the Mexican vote, they might be winning a lot more elections...
21 posted on 06/29/2013 12:29:30 AM PDT by Tzimisce (The American Revolution began when the British attempted to disarm the Colonists.)
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