Posted on 06/05/2013 6:01:33 AM PDT by blam
MISS: US COMPANIES ADD ONLY 135,000 JOBS
Sam Ro
June 5, 2013
The ADP jobs report is out, and it's a miss.
US companies added only 135,000 jobs in May, which was well below the 165,000 expected by economists.
The April measure was also revised down to +113,000 from a prior reading of +119,000.
"Notably, a gain of 5,000 jobs in the construction industry during May was offset by a decline of 6,000 lost jobs in the manufacturing industry," said ADP's Carlos Rodriguez.
Here's a break down by company size:
* Small (1-49 employees): +58,000
* Medium (50-499 employees): +39,000
* Large (500+): +39,000
This is the first of the major May labor market indicators building up to this Friday's official jobs report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"In the short term, the monthly ADP survey, which we get this morning, is the single best predictor of changes in payrolls," said Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna.
The "odds of a strong report on Friday have just gone down considerably," said economist Ian Shepherdson.
Here's what LaVorgna and Shepherdson talking about (chart via ADP):
Historical Trend Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment May 2013
"Private payrolls rose 57K more than the ADP estimate last month; misses have averaged 42K since Moody’s became the compiler of the data," said High Frequency Economics Jim O'Sullivan addressing the relationship between the BLS and ADP reports.
Here's a historical chart from ADP:
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
If I remember right, it takes 300,000+ to just keep up with population growth.
Obamanomics is NOT working.
Bring American jobs back, to America.
Just saying.
UNEXPECTED?
TOTALLY!!
They are running only one side of the ledger.
The “jobs added” is a meaningless figure, if the number of people LAID OFF is not correlated in some way to that number.
What was the NET CHANGE in the number of people working as of a given date? If it is LESS on a day-to-day basis (or week-to-week, or month-to-month, or year-to-year), then no jobs are being CREATED.
Calling BS is entirely justified.
No matter how much the Current Regime in the White Hut wants to pretty things up, we continue on a death spiral.
Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses fell 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013, the combined effect of a 3.8 percent decrease in hourly compensation and the 0.5 percent increase in productivity. The decline in hourly compensation is the largest in the series, which begins in 1947.
There's no good way to spin this one -- productivity was up 0.5% during the first quarter, but the cost decrease is bad news as it is nearly all decrease in hourly wages.
Then, along will come Friday and the U.S. jobs report will give a 150,000 number, prompting the palace guard “media” to trumpet it as the return of boom times.
Here's their breakdown:
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
