Too late to stop Iran's nuke program?

One of the America’s foremost experts on nuclear weapons calls Iran’s secret “Quds” nuclear facility very scary and a sign the Islamic regime might be close to taking on the world.

In an exclusive March 20 report with updates on March 24, March 25 and April 10, WND revealed the vast “Quds” site. Iranian scientists are trying to perfect nuclear warheads at this underground facility previously unknown to the West.

According to WND’s source, an officer who has been assigned to the regime’s Ministry of Defense, the site, approximately 14 miles long and 7.5 miles wide, consists of two facilities built deep into a mountain along with a missile facility housing over 380 missile silos/garages that is surrounded by barbed wire, 45 security towers and several security posts.

The most significant information provided by the source is that the regime has succeeded in not only enriching to weapons grade but has converted the highly enriched uranium into metal.

Moreover, the source said, successfully making this metal neutron reflector indicates the final stages for a nuclear weapons design that would be a two-stage, more sophisticated and much more powerful nuclear bomb. Regime scientists are also working on a plutonium bomb as a second path to becoming nuclear-armed, the source said, and they have at this site 24 kilograms of plutonium, which is sufficient for several atomic bombs. The scientists are at the last stage of putting together a bomb warhead, he said.

The nuclear weapon-effects test expert, who could not be named but who served at the U.S. Defense Nuclear Agency and who inspected more than 200 tunnel structures of Russian nuclear test sites as well as Russian operational facilities and silos, viewed the imagery of Iran’s new secret facility.

Israel is waiting for the US, because without the US they simply do not have the ability to destroy the Iranian site. The US has the conventional ability to do so, but Israel doesn't have any platform that has the combination of range, payload and survivability (they have different approaches that have a combination of two, but none that have all three). Without the US Israel is limited to three options, with anything outside those three simply not being able to work (e.g. an air strike similar to that done at Osirak to take out the Iraqi reactor decades back simply cannot work in Iran's case).

The three options include using a special forces team, in which case a Sayeret force would be inserted and tasked with destroying the facility. Obviously that would be a one-way mission for the team, but considering what is at stake Israel would not be in any way short of capable volunteers. The ability of this succeeding though is not that high.

The second option is a nuclear strike. Israel can simply launch a number of its Jericho missiles at the site. Their yield would be sufficient to level the facility, and more importantly get to the underground facilities. The Jerichi nuclear MRBM has the three things I mentioned - range (can get to Iran with no problem), payload (a nuclear package will definitely do the job), and survivability (not many nations can intercept an MRB). However, the chances of Israel opting for a preemptive nuclear strike is the same as that of Clint Eastwood sending Obama a Christmas greeting card. Simply not going to happen.

The third option is a major cyber attack similar to that which crippled the Iranian nuclear project for a while (and that which crippled the Syrian air-defense network). It has worked before. The only problem here is that the Iranians are many things, but stupid is not one of them. If the Persians were to dedicate themselves to better things rather than fulfilling the wetdreams of the Ayatollahs Iran would be quite far. They obviously know what Western cyber attacks are capable of, and anything that is vulnerable has definitely been taken off grid. The only way a cyber attack would be possible is through HUMINT sabotage, where an Israeli asset (maybe an Iranian working at the site who has been turned by the Israelis) uploads a program in person.

Israel needs the US. The US has several platforms that meet the range, payload and survivability requirements. For instance, take the B-2 bomber. The Spirit has the range (intercontinental with refueling), it has the payload (the upgraded MOAB type deep-penetrator), and it is survivable against most IADS (and definitely survivable against the Iranian IADS).

If the US does not assist Israel then Israel will have to opt for option number 1 (the suicide Sayaret excursion) or option number 3 (hoping that the Iranians are still susceptible to a Stuxnet type cyber attack), since option number 2 (a nuke strike) will simply not happen. Or they can opt for an air strike using a F-15/F-16 package similar to that used in Osirak. Due to the distances it would be a one-way mission as well, the Eagles/Vipers would have a horrific attrition rate even with jamming, and there is simply no (non-nuclear) bomb powerful enough that can be carried by an Eagle/Viper that can penetrate to the depth required to ascertain destruction of the under-ground facilities. The air strike doesn't meet the range requirement (unless they are very creative at aerial refueling, similar to how they fooled neighboring countries by speaking Arabic during the Osirak strike ....and even with all creativity in the world in regards to refueling it would only create an opportunity to reach the target but no fuel to make it back). The air strike can be survivable due to some good work done by the Israelis on using radars against themselves (not just jamming, but using the fact that a radar is basically a large radio transmitter), but the rate of attrition may be bad. The air strike most definitely fails the payload test, since there is no bomb the Israelis have that can penetrate deep enough, and considering the size of the deep penetrators used by the US there is no aircraft the Israelis have that can carry an equivalent weapon (they could jury rig a C-130, but it would not be survivable).

Cruise missiles launched from the Dolphin submarines have the range and are definitely survivable, but the cruise missiles do not have the payload. Again, if we are talking nukes its a different story, but using conventional explosives it is simply not sufficient. Even for blocking entrances and ventilation.

This is the reason why Israel is waiting. For the US.

The biggest bomb for the task Israel has is the GBU-28, which can penetrate up to 30m of soil/6m of concrete before detonating. Quite good performance. However, the Natanz enrichment facility is deep underground and better protected than a GBU-28 can penetrate, and the Fordo enrichment plant is built into a mountain (the GBU-28 needs a near vertical drop to work well). Additionally, the only plane the Israelis have that can carry the -28 is the F-15, and only one can be carried per Eagle.

Israel would require larger bunker busters to be assured of reaching the appropriate depth, but they don't own those weapons and they don't have the delivery systems (e.g. a B-2 bomber) to use them.

At most, using current weapons and delivery systems - that are not nuclear - Israel can only damage the Iranian complexes. It is important to note it is just not one target but several - there is Natanz, Fordo, Arak, Parchin, and Isfahan ...and even each of those is not one target.

They key here is that they will need US assistance. Without US assistance then the Israelis will be forced to get VERY creative, and even then it will cost them. The good thing though is that no one does 'creative' quite like the Israelis.

Where did I say Israel didn't have refueling capability? Also, why the acerbic nature in your post? Israel does have refueling capability ...it is just that of the three main ways of ingress into Iran only the one via Iraq is viable followed by the one over Saudi Arabia, and in both cases refueling with fighter escorts is only viable over the Iraqi route, and with even with that it wouldn't be sufficient for F-15s carrying a single GBU-28 each to reach as far as Qom and get back. One option that had been raised was for Sayeret forces to prepare a landing site with fuek bladders in the Iraqi desert for the returning planes.

However you said what I posted was crap - even though I never said Israel couldn't refuel. Maybe its because I said the range of the B2 is intercontinental with refueling, but in-between refueling one can't compare the Spirit with the Eagle. Not one bit.

But hey ...even my other reasons are crap, right? The reason Israel has hit Iran to date using conventional weapons, even though they have been very busy using other means like cyber attacks and targeted killing of Iranian scientists, is not because of my crappy reasons, right? At any given moment Israel could fly F-16s and hit Natanz ...they just 'choose' not to and let the Iranians build nuclear weapon capability, right?

I support Israel as much as you do. Whether or not you think my post is crap the fact still remains that Israel's conventional options are restricted to what I said. I am typing this on my Galaxy, but later in today I will link some articles - one from a military analyst and the other from the US government - that say what I said, just in harsher tones (eg saying an Israeli attack, even if it managed to hit, would not even slow down Iranian nuclear development). I believe the Israelis are some of the best soldiers in the world, and in my last post I said no one does creative like they do. However, the US simply has a much larger choice of military options.

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