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US shale oil supply shock shifts global power balance
BBC ^ | 14 May 2013 Last updated at 10:00 ET | STAFF

Posted on 05/14/2013 8:25:13 AM PDT by Red Badger

A steeper-than-expected rise in US shale oil reserves is about to change the global balance of power between new and existing producers, a report says.

Over the next five years, the US will account for a third of new oil supplies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The US will change from the world's leading importer of oil to a net exporter.

Demand for oil from Middle-East oil producers is set to slow as a result.

"North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world," said IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven.

The surge in US production will reshape the whole industry, according to the IEA, which made the prediction in its closely-watched bi-annual report examining trends in oil supply and demand over the next five years.

The IEA said it expected the US to overtake Russia as the world's biggest gas producer by 2015 and to become "all but self-sufficient" in its energy needs by about 2035.

The rise in US production means the world's reliance on oil from traditional oil producing countries in the Middle East, which make up Opec (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), would end soon, according to the report.

Slower growth

US production is set to grow by 3.9 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from 2012 to 2018, accounting for some two-thirds of the predicted growth in traditional non-Opec production, according to the IEA. Continue reading the main story “Start Quote

The regional fallout from the 'Arab Spring' is taking a toll on investment and capacity growth”

IEA

Meanwhile, global oil demand is set to increase by 8% which would be met mainly by non-Opec supplies, the report said

(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: energy; gas; iea; oil; opec; petroleum; shale
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1 posted on 05/14/2013 8:25:13 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: thackney

pING!............


2 posted on 05/14/2013 8:25:34 AM PDT by Red Badger (Want to be surprised? Google your own name......Want to have fun? Google your friend's names........)
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To: Red Badger

Let the Saudi’s wither on the vine.


3 posted on 05/14/2013 8:26:57 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: Red Badger
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
4 posted on 05/14/2013 8:29:05 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: knarf

Somehow I think our fearless leaders will screw it all up.


5 posted on 05/14/2013 8:31:33 AM PDT by Captain PJ (Are we there yet?)
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To: Red Badger

And I’m still paying $3.95 per gallon for gas this morning.

Drill now.


6 posted on 05/14/2013 8:33:07 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Blather. Reince. Repeat.)
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To: Red Badger
It has long been Americas energy policy to pump the cheap oil of the world dry until we had to develop our own reserves. And FWIW, the cheap oil locations will fill back up if left alone for a hundred years. That's how the molten earth core works. It's a giant distillery, which precipitates the long chain hydrocarbons as they cool inside cavernous mantle formations.

When the earth's molten inner core begins to cool, that's when oil reserves will vanish.

7 posted on 05/14/2013 8:34:16 AM PDT by blackdog (There is no such thing as healing, only a balance between destructive and constructive forces.)
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To: knarf

I agree. Arabs without oil (and oil money) are nothing more than camel jockeys. Let them all go back to the desert and pound sand.


8 posted on 05/14/2013 8:34:42 AM PDT by Cowboy Bob (Democrats: Robbing Peter to buy Paul's vote.)
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To: knarf

That will happen, and after that, the world will become a little more sane.


9 posted on 05/14/2013 8:36:11 AM PDT by stuartcr ("I have habits that are older than the people telling me they're bad for me.")
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To: Red Badger

for later


10 posted on 05/14/2013 8:38:15 AM PDT by Doctor 2Brains
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To: blackdog

My pet theory is, if you drill deep enough ANYWHERE, you will strike oil.........


11 posted on 05/14/2013 8:39:20 AM PDT by Red Badger (Want to be surprised? Google your own name......Want to have fun? Google your friend's names........)
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To: Red Badger

[[A steeper-than-expected rise in US shale oil reserves is about to change the global balance of power between new and existing producers, a report says.]]

That’s fine, but hte fact is companies want to export the oil because it will getm orem oney overseas, which means that our prices here will also rise-


12 posted on 05/14/2013 8:39:50 AM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: blackdog

You are living in a fantasy world.

The temperatures and pressures at the levels of molten rock break down the long-chain hydrocarbons, they don’t form them. We do this every day in most of our refineries.

Wishing won’t make the physics and chemistry run backwards.

abiotic oil theories have produced cash from gullible investors and few countries, but has never been a source for commercial oil production.

Every wonder how that deep-earth theory matched the fact that all the world’s oil fields are sourced from sedimentary basins? And places like Hawaii where the crust has been pushed up from underneath has no oil production?


13 posted on 05/14/2013 8:40:15 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: CottShop
hte fact is companies want to export the oil because it will getm orem oney overseas

Do you honestly believe that OPEC imports oil to us today and we don't pay global market rates?

14 posted on 05/14/2013 8:41:26 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

I am not a geologist. I just know that many of the wells we pumped dry in the early part of the last century are full again. That is especially true in California and Pennsylvania.


15 posted on 05/14/2013 8:43:48 AM PDT by blackdog (There is no such thing as healing, only a balance between destructive and constructive forces.)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

[[Drill now.]]

The drilling isn’t the problem- We’re suppsoedly ‘at capacity’ in regards to our refineries and what they can handle- the problem is two fold- congress has prevented the companies from making enough refineries- and 2 since we can’t refine anym ore, we are exportign oil because it getsm ore money overseas which raises price her too I guess- fro mwhat I understand of it


16 posted on 05/14/2013 8:44:36 AM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: CottShop
That’s fine, but hte fact is companies want to export the oil because it will getm orem oney overseas, which means that our prices here will also rise-

?????......

17 posted on 05/14/2013 8:46:02 AM PDT by Red Badger (Want to be surprised? Google your own name......Want to have fun? Google your friend's names........)
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To: thackney

I’m talking abotu IF we becoem ‘energy indepedent’ Our congress is not goign to allow low energy prices for one, and two- companies will make morem oney exporting oil, which will raise prices here-


18 posted on 05/14/2013 8:47:18 AM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: blackdog

And you know that how?


19 posted on 05/14/2013 8:49:29 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: CottShop
IF we becoem ‘energy indepedent’

If we are not paying market rates for the product, we won't be getting investors/oil companies spending money in this country to produce the product.

20 posted on 05/14/2013 8:50:45 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: CottShop
The drilling isn’t the problem- We’re suppsoedly ‘at capacity’ in regards to our refineries

You have it backwards. We import as much oil as we produce ourselves. We refine more than we use and export the surplus. Our refining capacity is above our refined product usage.

21 posted on 05/14/2013 8:52:30 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Red Badger

It amazes me how articles like this continue to miss the point.

The implication here is that US shale oil and gas are something unique.

In fact, many if not most countries of the world have such resources, some in much greater quantity than ours.

We just got a headstart on accessing them because the tech was invented here. (What does that say about our “inability to innovate?”)

When the shale fields in Oz, Russia, Argentina, S. Africa, Brazil, Europe, etc. come on-line, then we’ll have something. While prices won’t go down since fracking is more expensive than just drilling a hole, they will in all probability stabilize.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EIA_World_Shale_Gas_Map.png

While OPEC nations will continue to rake in money, their political power will disappear, since they won’t be able to shut off the supply when they choose. Very good thing.

It is also not at all unlikely that more energy and money efficient ways of accessing this oil and gas will be invented. There are truly massive incentives for anybody who comes up with such a process.


22 posted on 05/14/2013 8:52:40 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: thackney
Industry magazines from the 90's. It may be hooey, or information meant to influence research or markets, but it was information I read a long time ago.

Are you saying it is false? Or is the oil just now more recoverable because it's been lifted or displaced by something else?

23 posted on 05/14/2013 8:53:03 AM PDT by blackdog (There is no such thing as healing, only a balance between destructive and constructive forces.)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

I liked the gas price when we were pumping oil at >9,000.


24 posted on 05/14/2013 8:57:58 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Red Badger

May God continue to bless our oil companies. If our government was one-tenth as intelligent as the men who run EXXON and Conoco, this would not be a failing economy.


25 posted on 05/14/2013 8:58:06 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: Red Badger

Maybe we should slant drill into the Saudi reserves?


26 posted on 05/14/2013 8:59:09 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: blackdog

Many people confuse applying enhanced oil recovery methods to old wells with new oil in the field.

Simple pumping and the like may only recover 20% from the original drilling. Companies go back, rework wells, apply water flood, CO2 flood and other methods and a “played out” field “suddenly” has more oil.

The proved reserves of that field may double from the original, but the original oil in place hasn’t changed. When companies announce reserves in place, they must be based upon the current technology AND the current price. Some of the oil will cost to much to get at $20 but is recoverable at $80. A lot of that has happened over the years.

Occasionally you can get a couple pockets connected by a fault line. If you pump the pressure down in one and not in the other, the oil may move along the fault to the field you originally pumped from. That condition is rare but has been documented a few times.


27 posted on 05/14/2013 8:59:21 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

I never said we drill all the oil we use- I said the problem is that we are at capacity in regards to refineries production and export the rest- and agaIN, IF we go energy indepedent, companies will still export because they get mroe overseas which will keep prices high-

Michelle backman said that if she were elected she woudl have been abvle to reduce hte price of gasoline to arounf 2-2 1/2 dollars or whatever it was before dearl eader took over- not sure how she woudl have accomplished that-


28 posted on 05/14/2013 9:07:00 AM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

Gasoline is a global commodity for which crude oil cost is only one factor. Other factors include global demand, global refining capacity, state and federal regulation (including ethanol), taxes, and transportation.


29 posted on 05/14/2013 9:07:09 AM PDT by stinkerpot65 (Global warming is a Marxist lie.)
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To: thackney

[[If we are not paying market rates for the product,]]

This might be a problem as thigns produced here generally costm ore than thigns that we import- hence why we import- not sure if import oil is cheaper than domestically produced oil, but it woudl seem that it will be quite expensive to go compeltely domestic for our total oil use- Derek workers get a massive salary as opposed to oil workers overseas- as well oil companies here have to pay farm ore in fines, permits etc etcd etc- Import oil may be what’s keeping prices down some- I don’t know-


30 posted on 05/14/2013 9:10:11 AM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: CottShop
I never said we drill all the oil we use-

No, you said:

The drilling isn’t the problem-

I disagree. We get about the same amount of oil from OPEC as Texas, North Dakota and Alaska combined.

I said the problem is that we are at capacity in regards to refineries production and export the rest

No, you said:

We’re suppsoedly ‘at capacity’ in regards to our refineries and what they can handle- the problem is two fold- congress has prevented the companies from making enough refineries- and 2 since we can’t refine anym ore, we are exportign oil

We export essentially no crude oil, but we export our surplus of refined product.

Michelle backman said that if she were elected she woudl have been abvle to reduce hte price of gasoline to arounf 2-2 1/2 dollars or whatever it was before dearl eader took over- not sure how she woudl have accomplished that-

She could only accomplish that with price controls or other subsidies. It was a foolish statement designed to appeal to those that don't know better.

31 posted on 05/14/2013 9:16:28 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Do you know of a chart for total US energy production (oil,gas, coal...) over us demand.
Barrel equivalents, btu, calories...no difference.
I would like to see if we are in fact gaining and at what rate.


32 posted on 05/14/2013 9:17:12 AM PDT by DUMBGRUNT (The best is the enemy of the good!)
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To: txrefugee

Pause for a moment and think of the miracle of a gallon of gasoline.

Think about how much human effort would be required to move a 3 thousand pound vehicle and six people 20 miles.


33 posted on 05/14/2013 9:18:02 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: CottShop
not sure if import oil is cheaper than domestically produced oil,

Oil is like gold, silver, wheat etc. It is a globally priced commodity. It doesn't matter where it comes from for the price. What does matter is quality and the cost of transportation. That is variation in price.

34 posted on 05/14/2013 9:18:26 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/


35 posted on 05/14/2013 9:25:32 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: DUMBGRUNT
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36 posted on 05/14/2013 9:29:20 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

I think you’re missing hwat I was stating- IF we go energy indepedent, we set our own prices- and export prices will be higher makign it more attractive to export- and we’ll essentially be i nthe same perdicament we’re in now-

Venezuala is apaprently 12Cents per gallon in us dollars, nigeria, egypt etc are all below 1 dolalr gallon- their labor is dirt cheap but our labor is very expensive-

You said oil prices are the same everywhere- thsi isn’t true for ‘oil independent’ areas liek venezuala and others (We of course won’t be exporting to these countries, and wil instead export to the more expensive coutnries— )- global market values are not affectign htsoe coutnries-


37 posted on 05/14/2013 9:33:07 AM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: blackdog

“I am not a geologist. I just know that many of the wells we pumped dry in the early part of the last century are full again. That is especially true in California and Pennsylvania.”

It’s called migration! When we drill a well that zone is under pressure and that pressure is released through the well bore. We’ll let them flow as long as possible until the pressures drop to the point we have to use some type of artificial lift system. When it first starts the migration is intense and move allot of oil but as the pressure goes down so does the migration. at some point the migration is so slow and pressures so low that it doesn’t migrate fast enough to warrant pumping (cost more to pump than what you’ll make). I’ve got 2 flowing wells that I only open Once a week for about one day. I’ve got several pumping wells that I shut in in 98 and didn’t kick them back on until two years later. When they came on they produce about 3 times as much oil as they had before but that fell of rather fast back to it’s old production rates. Technicaly a well never goes dry it just gets to the point it’s not profitable to pump. Time is not your friend on down hole equipment and given enough it destroys your casing resultin a casing collapse or leak and then You plug it and walk away to the next one.


38 posted on 05/14/2013 9:33:45 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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To: thackney

I’m sorry- thsoe were 2005 prices in those cheap gasoline countries- however, I imagien they are still quite low


39 posted on 05/14/2013 9:38:29 AM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: CottShop
I think you’re missing hwat I was stating-

I think I am missing what you are trying to convey.

IF we go energy indepedent, we set our own prices

we set our own prices there is your false assumption. The producers will not spend money in this country to sell at below market rates.

It would take subsidies or price control along with nationalizing the industry to accomplish what you suggest. Not a road I want us to follow.

Venezuala is apaprently 12Cents per gallon in us dollars, nigeria, egypt etc are all below 1 dolalr gallon- their labor is dirt cheap but our labor is very expensive-

Their price is only that cheap because the government subsidies the cost.

You said oil prices are the same everywhere- thsi isn’t true for ‘oil independent’ areas liek venezuala and others

Yes it is, unless the government forces it different.

Try changing oil for gold and see how your situation would work.

40 posted on 05/14/2013 9:45:16 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: CottShop

Venezuela’s Gas Prices Remain Low, but the Political Costs May Be Rising
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/30/world/americas/30venezuela.html?_r=0

Saudi Arabia Must Review Its Oil Subsidies, Former Adviser Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-27/saudi-arabia-must-review-its-oil-subsidies-former-adviser-says.html


41 posted on 05/14/2013 9:47:40 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

[[we set our own prices there is your false assumption. The producers will not spend money in this country to sell at below market rates.]]

that is precisely my point- IF we go indepedent, we will NEVER sell oil below what it costs (which is why I was not sure how michelle backman coudl make that claim)


42 posted on 05/14/2013 9:52:44 AM PDT by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: CottShop
IF we go indepedent, we will NEVER sell oil below what it costs

In this we agree. I didn't get that from your statements above.

Cheers!

43 posted on 05/14/2013 9:55:10 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Red Badger

I hope this is just the tip of the iceberg, not only for America, but for the rest of the non Muslim, free world.


44 posted on 05/14/2013 10:01:49 AM PDT by pallis
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To: pallis

The power to tax is the power to destroy........John Marshall


45 posted on 05/14/2013 10:16:37 AM PDT by Red Badger (Want to be surprised? Google your own name......Want to have fun? Google your friend's names........)
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To: Red Badger
And the looney Gaia infected Al gore worshipping Earth-before-humans environazis want to stop it!
46 posted on 05/14/2013 10:25:16 AM PDT by PATRIOT1876 (The only crimes that are 100% preventable are crimes committed by illegal aliens)
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To: thackney

THANK YOU, THANK YOU!

Exactly what I was looking for and more!


47 posted on 05/14/2013 12:48:37 PM PDT by DUMBGRUNT (The best is the enemy of the good!)
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To: Red Badger

Hedge fund guru David Tepper was on CNBC this morning and relayed a story about another hedge fund friend who was talking to the Chinese. The Chinese said, “America is so lucky with all this shale oil and gas.” The hedgie replied, “You know why? Because God blesses America you athiest.”

I LOL’d on that comment.


48 posted on 05/14/2013 12:52:35 PM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: thackney

Coffee shop chatter this morning reporting extensive drilling activity in Union Parish lately. Lots of oilfield types in the restaurants, Wal-Mart, etc.

Union Parish is north and east of us, and borders Arkansas. This is the “Brown Dense” formation that made the news a couple of years ago.

http://www.swn.com/operations/pages/browndense.aspx


49 posted on 05/14/2013 12:55:35 PM PDT by abb
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To: abb

50 posted on 05/14/2013 12:56:46 PM PDT by abb
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