like i said in previous posts, you do NOT need to collapse the bunker... all ya gotta do is destroy/close their entry/escape routes and air vents so that they suffocate before they can be dug out, dead is dead
Posted on 05/03/2013 2:28:37 PM PDT by Pan_Yan
They have neither.
Sure, they could jury rig a transport plane to carry such a weapon, but it would not be survivable. There is a reason the US would use the B-2 bomber for such a mission. The Israelis are capable of many things, and it is never a good bet to bet against them. However, this is simply beyond their current capability. The bomb is too big, they don't have a way to transport it, and even if they jury rigged a 747 or C130 it would simply not be survivable.
For effect, compare the 1981 attack on the Iraqi reactor (Osirak) with what would be needed for the Israelis to replicate that over Iran. Far longer distances, greater complexity, and thirty years for the Iranians to prepare (by the way before the Israeli attack on the reactor the Iranians had also conducted their own attack on Osirak). One US study a couple of years ago said it was simply not possible for the Israelis to do such an attack on Iran. Now, I hate the word 'impossible,' and the Israelis have a way of making impossible possible (ask Idi Amin's ghost how that impossible raid on Uganda went), however the Israelis simply cannot do a successful AIR attack on Iran without US help. It's not a lack of will but rather of capability.
How about several smaller bombs dropped with extreme precision into the same spot? Israel won’t just lay down on this.
Anyways, one way or another (and there are a couple of ways) Iran will not get nuclear weapons. The thing is that it will not be done via an Israeli air attack because that is simply not possible. The US would not have bothered investing in IADS penetrators like the B2 if it was that easy penetrating an integrated air defense network. The Iranian system may not be as sophisticated as the Russian or Chinese IADS, but it is by far more capable than the KARI system used by Iraq during the Gulf War.
Iran will not get nukes ...but it will not be via an Israeli air attack.
Thanks for your comprehensive posting #61.
Cruise missiles probably could not carry a bunker buster payload - maybe ... I have not heard of such... Israel has at least 5 German built conventionally powered diesel subs maybe more. They are top rated with Polaris type ballistic missiles and Cruise missiles. The missiles are nuclear armed - maybe have conventional warheads too - not sure.
Why send a MOP to do a NUKE’s job?
When you have a weapon you refuse to use,
you are essentially defenceless.
The idea behind the penetrator bombs is that they burrow a long, long way down before they explode. A series of small bombs can’t duplicate that.
Keep it stored in the White Hut basement to keep prying eyes away.
like i said in previous posts, you do NOT need to collapse the bunker... all ya gotta do is destroy/close their entry/escape routes and air vents so that they suffocate before they can be dug out, dead is dead
That might work fine. I just can't recall anything like a belly tank having been used before on a 747 and I can recall the Shuttle so I KNOW top carry is possible and with a large size margin. Simpler generally better; belly carry and gravity drop probably is the fastest, cheapest solution and probably would work the first time.
The only problem is getting your 747 to the launch point. A hypothetical realist Mullah in Iran should have little confidence in the ability of his air force and ground to air missiles to shoot down Israeli fighters. But if all his nuclear dreams required was keeping an externally loaded foreign 747 from reaching the center of his large country he's going ton be feeling a lot better. Even the israelis can't convert a 747 into a B1 designed to penetrate air defenses.
The ability to launch from some distance might greatly increase the chance of launching at all. It also offers a better chance of achieving tactical surprise. It significantly adds complexity and lead time to the mission, but then Israel could well have started designing such when Obama was first elected. Which makes it possible. Belly carry is size limited by ground clearance and the landing gear. If more space was needed it would be available topside. It's at least worthy of consideration when starting the mission planning.
What you suggest would slow them down for a year or so ... but if the contents of the bunkers stays in tact - then it can be rebuilt and restaffed - at great hardship I agree - but they can bet back on line ...
The one thing that occurs to be - bunker buster MOAB or bigger - then place multiple ones on the same site ... Make a big hole with one then follow up with two-three more - with GPS - TV guidance and laser guidance it can be done ... then nothing could withstand multiple hits - because the second and third start to blast at much deeper levels ...
the vital contents of the bunker are the people, and they cannot be replaced in a year or two... and even if they can be replaced, Iran's knowledge base is gone, and everything starts again from zero
Just to be nice I will take your word for it — but you are being very optimistic. People said things like this about the North Vietnamese way back then - but their resilience and come back ability was astounding. One of the best attacks on Iran has been the industrial viruses and the motorcycle bombers who have assassinated some of the nuclear scientists.
yeah but the Vietnamese weren't trying to build the bomb... you build bunkers to protect people/knowledge base not things and the higher value the target the harder it is to replace and even when replaced, lessons learned have to be relearned and it also makes it harder to get new talent of equal caliber let alone better when they see what happened to their predecessors even when hiding in their end of the world bunker system
Have it your way ...
It's doubtful that Israel has a means of delivering a 20-30,000 lb bomb.
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