Posted on 03/28/2013 6:14:19 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Thanks for looking those up WT - I was going to have to wait until tonight otherwise.
I know that you are intelligent, but sometimes you are obtuse...
Well, you stated related to claims that “You need to get to about 160,000 to see any significant growth in the economy or a stabilizing labor market.” That hasn’t happened ever so that statement is invalid.
Statement isn't invalid. I described what the economy would do given certain parameters. For example, GDP growth at 8%, with certain amount of initial unemployment claims etc..
I could give all of the fixes for this economy in this post, but I won't. Most economist already know what would stimulate the economy, and give it significant sustained growth. Unfortunately, the Fed gov's % [consumption] of GDP is totally out of control. Politics are killing the economy, and DPI.
As I stated in my last post,...
The statements on this thread that the employment situation is not improving are inaccurate as claims are actually below normal as defined by a long-run average.
...the long run average is not misleading, but irrelevant in both our discussion, and as a metric to gauge economic activity (GDP over the long run).
Anyway,
The statements on this thread that the employment situation is not improving are inaccurate...
You are correct, but there is a caveat. It's call the Labor Participation Rate.
I enjoyed our banter.
5.56mm
This is incorrect. You have the claims number correct but you have substituted the 164K (last 12 month average) for "new hires". The 160K is NET jobs added (additions less subtractions) not gross (just additions).
Agree completely and I've never said otherwise. I have said that it's pretty amazing how well the economy is doing despite everything from a fiscal and regulatory perspective that is being done to wreck it. Suffice it to say that GDP is "sub-optimal." I think we are on the same page here.
You are correct, but there is a caveat. It's call the Labor Participation Rate.
The main question is why is the labor force participation rate declining to levels we haven't seen since the 1970's? A part is the relatively week economic recovery (frictional). Another is the aging population of Baby Boomers that started retiring (structural). I'd like to see some serious analysis of these two issues. I'm not an economist (although I play one for my company ;-) and don't have the statistical chops to do this heavy analytical work.
I enjoy our banter as well. Always good to engage in these discussion where I am challenged and learn something.
Lets see made in China
GM cars
Chrysler cars
BMW cars
Volkswagen cars
Briggs and Stratton engines
Apple Computers, Apple Ipads etc.
HP Computers
Sony has products made in China
Black and Decker Products
add to the list if you so desire
Notice the issue is Global products to make a profit for the company.
Profit is only propping up the Chinese.
Whatever happened to Silicon Valley California?
Seymour Cray Super-Computers Chippewa Falls, WI?
Tecumseh Engines?
What to do? Avoid buying anything that we don’t really need. Do what is natural, healthy and productive regardless of social pathologies being pushed by political folks. Become more self-sufficient. Learn to do technical work as a hobby for now.
Watch the bond collapse, haircuts, pension reductions, repudiation, currency adjustment. No more funding for anti-competition interests. Export anti-American interests. Make laws to enforce the exportation of anti-American interests. Repeal zoning ordinances/laws against new, small manufacturing starts in rural areas.
More bipartisan controls against American freedoms to head off such efforts? Sure. Go ahead. Domestic anti-American interests are doing a great job of that so far. [Little irony and sarcasm in this last paragraph.] We’ll stock up on popcorn.
Well looky there, It's not 1,357,000 jobs, so you see, Obama saved one million jobs!
And the government is still printing and borrowing to keep the economy from falling into another recession, which is a confession that the economy hasn't been fixed, that is it can't grow on its own, yet.
And yet the stock market is continuing to set records.
Ever heard of Castro?
< /sarc off
I bought a double whopper combo today. Those are about the only manufacturing jobs we have now.
just hang in there, come late may there will be a few hundred thousand jobs in the northeast (as usual) mostly in hospitality. especially in Cape Cod.
A significant factor may be the growth in the number of potential laborers on disability. The number I heard recently was 14 million, but I took it that the 14 million referred to only recipients of Gov't disability payments. Maybe someone can confirm, correct, or add more details to this.
However, while I realize this is "anecdotal evidence", I know a few people who are on what is essentially private disability of one sort or another. These are typically settlements after a worker has been "disabled" to one degree or another by an injury on the job, etc., and the employer (or an insurance company) is paying out over a period of time. There are quite a few of these people out there, I believe -- in our litigious society their numbers seem to be growing also, but I've seen no definitive statistics regarding this group. In any case, many persons in the above groups either do not work, or if they do it is off the books. Indeed, I suspect a part of the resilience of the US economy may actually be due to the underground economy, but that is another discussion.
I do have a question about manufacturing output. WHAT is being manufactured here, that holds up the manufacturing output numbers? Cars at prices few can afford? Certainly, few consumer goods that one sees in stores at almost any price level are being manufactured in the US. High tech, da, but how big a chunk can that be? Also... It would seem to me that any manufactured product being subsidized by the gov't should have the % that is subsidized taken back off of "manufacturing output", as that % is an illusion.
He’s great in Homeland.
“And yet the stock market is continuing to set records.”
If I read the numbers right, the average daily volume on the DOW over the last three months is ~124 million shares.
That’s kinda low, isn’t it?
By which I mean how realistic is the “record high” if hardly any shares are being traded?
Is market manipulation afoot?
You don't outlaw that. You need to create an environment to which jobs are attracted and make sure your competitor is not cheating.
That's one possibility. Another is that the lambs are being led to the slaughter.
Or maybe the well being of American workers is not an important factor in this global economy.
Corporate America tipped the balance when NAFTA, free trade etc was passed during the 1980’s. During that time Mexicans, Chinese, Indians barely can meet the technical skills of US workers until corporate America help them close the skill gap by training them. Now it is too late. Cannot tell the Chinese and Indian society to dumb down or freeze and let the US leap forward technically and skill wise. Add automation that wiped out middle manager office jobs and now many skilled machinist jobs in what factories we have left. New economy will be the 1 percent rich, followed by entrepreneurs and high skill workers, and the rest will be poor service workers. That is the new world economic order of the 21st Century. Free trade is to blame, and the resulting globalist economy cannot be undone, only thing left for most Americans is how do you prepare to fit in and how you prepare determines if you are poor service worker or one notch higher.
Interesting graph and facts. It seems all the expansion in industrial output in theses united states have come from mechanization and technical improvements.
It should be also interesting to compare industrial imports along the same lines to give us an idea of the growth of consumption and outsourcing.
We are going to lose a lot more full time jobs in favor of part time jobs due to obamacare.
We may also see an increase in the number of people working 2 or more jobs, although with the struggling economy that seems unlikely.
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