OK, I’ll take the contrarian position: either Sanford or Bostic should beat Colbert’s daughter, but Bostic would have a greater chance of blowing the election.
Coastal South Carolinians are not like those in the High Country—they are first and foremost economic conservatives, and many are turned off by religious conservatism. In 2008, when the SC-01 still included Myrtle Beach but before they added Hilton Head, its religious-conservative incumbent, Henry Brown, came within 2% of losing the seat to a lesbian Democrat. Fortunately Congressman Brown retired in 2010, a year in which the GOP was assured of carrying a district that Republican, and when political rock star Tim Scott, who is popular among both religious conservatives *and* economic conservatives, won the nomination, the seat became safely Republican.
Now it is open again (and, Impy, it is short-sighted and Monday-morning-quarterbacking to object to Gov. Haley appointing Scott to the Senate: it was by far the best decision for the Senate seat, not to mention for the conservative movement and the GOP), and it is actually bit less Republican than it was under its 2002-2010 lines: the McCain vote went from 57% under the old lines to 56% under the new lines. Of course, like everywhere other than heavily black areas, the Obama vote decreased in 2012, which allowed Romney to get 58% in the district, so the Republican base starts off with a clear majority. How many Republicans will stay home or vote for the “moderate” Democrat? And will Democrats turn out in droves to defeat the Republican? It will depend on who our nominee is.
I will predict that Sanford, who represented the district for years and who still is popular among economic conservatives (not to say that he isn’t a social conservative—he just doesn’t emphasize it as much) despite his adultery, will limit Republican defections and win with 53%. Bostic, whose baggage is ideological, not personal (Democrats will depict him as a “fundie” who won’t “support” rape victims and would be “intolerant”), would drive up RAT turnout more and would lose some economic conservatives, but should still win with 52%. And the odds of our nominee saying something stupid and losing the race is exponentially higher if Bostic, not Sanford, is the nominee. So, strange as it sounds, Sanford is our @safer bet.”
And as for what they will do in office, I think both would be terrific congressmen, but that Sanford would be likelier to take the lead in decreasing the size of government and reforming entitlements spending.
So count me as a Santorum supporter who would prefer that Sanford wins the nomination.
An interesting theory, but my gut (and some of that polling data) tells me they might be better off going with Bostic, precisely because he doesn’t have Sanford’s baggage. I’m not stupid enough to urge a vote against Sanford if he is the nominee, but I believe he is more of a lightning rod for the opposition. Ultimately, I believe this is more personal for Sanford, looking for redemption. That can be a risky and questionable motive for public office, because you’re making it about yourself and not your constituents. Sometimes I can agree with it, and sometimes I can’t. In this instance, I lean against.