Posted on 03/17/2013 8:52:16 AM PDT by blam
ANALYST: The Cyprus Deal Could Be The 'Trigger' We Were Waiting For In Europe
Matthew Boesler
March. 17, 2013, 10:41 AM
Stephen Z on Flickr
On Thursday, Société Générale analysts made a prescient call on Europe.
"It is far too early to dismiss euro area crisis as a key [market] driver," wrote SocGen's Vincent Chaigneau. "We fear another shockwave in the spring."
As it turns out, they may not have had to wait very long. News this weekend that the ECB, EU, and IMF bailout of the Cypriot banking system will include an instant 10 percent "tax" on bank deposits before banks re-open following Monday's holiday has already triggered runs on ATMs there.
Now, the banks have a problem on their hands. "The Cypriot cabinet has declared Tuesday a bank holiday, for fear of capital flight, and this may even be stretched to Wednesday, as depositors are certain to withdraw huge sums from the Cypriot banks after the haircut imposed," reports Greek newspaper Kathimerini.
Many market observers are expressing concerns that the decision could have a ripple effect throughout Europe come Monday when markets open. After all, if European leaders have decided to violate the unspoken rule of bank bailouts – that deposits are sacrosanct – what's to say it can't happen in a bigger eurozone country, like Spain?
In a Sunday morning note to clients, Morgan Stanley economist Joachim Fels wrote, "I view this as a worrying precedent with potentially systemic consequences if depositors in other periphery countries fear a similar treatment in the future."
"This will probably go down as an ill-thought-out rescue plan with consequences for peripheral Europe," says Galy. "It breaks a cardinal rule — namely, public trust on which money relies."
The decision, therefore, has everyone scratching their heads.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Because they can and they “need” the money more than the rightful owners do. That’s why.
They figure don’t need public trust anymore.
I would make two observations. First, Monday will be a huge ‘down-day’ for stock markets in Europe. I expect a two-percent drop in most markets. And it’ll swing through the US with a likely one-percent down-day here.
Second....I suspect that the government will be jerked into court very quickly to prove the Constitutional side of an immediate ten percent tax. My bet is that the court says it’s not ethical and the gov’t is forced to pay the money back within sixty days.
But here’s the curious thing. If you just watched this tax occur and now grasp the lack of reliability with your bank structure....how you proceed in the future? The answer....no banking. And I suspect most regular people will just quit the banks and buy a safe for the house. Small business men? They will go to the local mafia operation and ask them to run a deposit system and keep their money safe. Half the banks in Cyprus will be shut down by the end of 2013....my humble bet.
They probably know that at least 10% of deposits came from welfare state payments.. and believing all money is the governments anyway, think it’s in their right to get it back.
I’d bet there are those here in the US (Obama and company) waiting to see if the IMF gets away with this.
When you can’t solve a money problem take other peoples cash,the see how Obama&Co works.
Some say O&Co will take over all 401k accounts because we are to dumb to handle them and it’s free money.
Dow to dive on monday?.
So now, Monday is a orthodox religious holiday with banks closed anyway, Tuesday is a bank holiday (according to this article) and Wednesday is being considered as such. The Cypriot parliament probably isn’t going to approve the EU money grab anyway, which should lead to military movements very quickly.
And I predict that there will be huge reductions in money on deposit in American banks, as well.
Mine will certainly be reduced.
The next thing to worry about:
Any money invested in mutual funds, trust accounts, pension funds, etc.
Not just in Europe, but in any country that is involved in world trade.
Cayman Island?
I have no idea.
The powers that be are skimming as much money as they can from as many people as they can to make good on their bad bets to one another.
I wish I could do that every time I went to Vegas.
Given the small size of Cyprus and its economy, I have to wonder if this is a “test” to see how it goes, and what can be learned from it before the Real Thing happens.
Whether it is approved by the parliament or not is moot.
The damage is done in that we all see how far the EU is prepared to go to control the world banking system.
The handwriting is on the wall, writ LARGE RED LETTERS.
“But here’s the curious thing. If you just watched this tax occur and now grasp the lack of reliability with your bank structure....how you proceed in the future? The answer....no banking. And I suspect most regular people will just quit the banks and buy a safe for the house. Small business men? They will go to the local mafia operation and ask them to run a deposit system and keep their money safe. Half the banks in Cyprus will be shut down by the end of 2013....my humble bet.”
This is the fundamental problem - a “trick” generally works only once.
I would think this would be the beginning of the end of the Euro, and of the EU as well.
If some small, fiscally responsible but embattled nation that were already regarded as something of a pariah internationally were to set up a solid custodial account system, not subject to confiscatory action internationally and denominated in a stable currency, that small embattled nation might just find itself suddenly awash in deposits.
That plan has been sitting on somebody's desk since Sept. 2008 under the guise of a thing called a GSE. The plan is already there, it is just waiting for the right crisis.
Saw BobL type this yesterday. I agree with is a "test". No doubt other nations are watching and waiting to see if containment is to be made of a "test" or expansion of a "test" is possible. They, who make the rules, have us no matter what the People do. Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and the countless contingency plans are in play always. The People normally sit, wait, and watch because when inflation is factored in, as is being done, the only thing left normally by the time before the shooting starts is the rulers can come take your life. Then the rulers retreat a little and say dear People you voted for us to fix it, and here is the fix, all while the rulers take advantage. A repeat of History. Rinse, Repeat, Rinse, Repeat. Submitted humbly in an opinion.
Two things:
Cyprus banks are way over-sized. Loads of Russian money.
How can they vote on this? Every parliament member will get emails showing mobs outside his house...mobs with gasoline cans and torches.
Something on the order of 50% of Cypriot account holders are non-resident Russians.
Russian mobsters is a less politically-correct of saying that.
Cyprus is well-known as a money laundering center in Europe. And more than a few fugitive criminals are captured there....it’s a nice place to go on the lam.
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