As I recall his original medicare reform plan didnt start saving a dime for the first 10 years, at which point anyone turning 65 would have their medicare 'saved' by having it replaced by them (seniors) buying insurance companies private insurance instead. (will insurance companies even be around in 10 years?)
Ryan now:”I want Medicare to be there for my kids—just as it's there for my mom today. But Medicare is going broke. Under our proposal, those in or near retirement will see no changes, and future beneficiaries will inherit a program they can count on. Starting in 2024, we'll offer eligible seniors a range of insurance plans from which they can choose—including traditional Medicare—and help them pay the premiums. “
2024 is 11 years away, but it balances the budget in 10 years before this even cuts a dime ?? Gilb, I have to share your cynicism here.
So, the economy is going to average > 3.4% growth / yr for the next decade? GIGO.
If Ryan was the least bit serious he would propose changes to medicare starting now (like the dual system he now proposes) and then setup some metrics so we can see how its working over the years,
... because as you pointed out, there is no guarantee that insurance companies will turn out any cheaper than government price controls for seniors health care, given the same care.
I suggested this back in early 2011 when he first started on the idea.
But his 10-11 year delay before doing anything is a cheap political gimmick that never worked (to convince anyone) and it never will work. Its so obvious.