Posted on 02/28/2013 8:22:32 AM PST by Mad Dawgg
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew in the fourth quarter - but just barely - instead of contracting for the first time in three and a half years, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The U.S. expanded at a 0.1% annual rate in the last three months of 2012, better than the initially reported 0.1% drop but well below the third quarter's 3.1% pace.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
The Commerce Department is lying.
More lies from the government. Government issued economic statistics have become nothing but disinformation. Kind of like it was in the former Soviet Union. Or like it is in North Korea.
And, this during the HOLIDAY Season????
And this is when the Obama economy is doing the best it can.
Just wait until the Obama economy runs into a problem
“And, this during the HOLIDAY Season????”
Exactly, the most retail heavy time of the year.
This is the “Dorothy” economy. Click your heals together and wish for a better one like all the CNBC idiots do.
See, that is the point of this revision. IIRC two quarters of negative growth = the dreaded "R" word. Now if 1st quarter 2013 is negative well then we still aren't in a recession.
Magic Numbers, easypeasy japaneesy, no Recession!
...at least until the NEXT revision. IIRC it took THREE revisions to finally settle on the lie that was quoted for Q4 2011.
0.1% Gee thats exactly what my CD’s are paying, and I am getting rich off of them.
The headline is wrong. The economy grew .025% last quarter [assuming the number is accurate]. They multiply the quarterly GDP figure by 4 to “annualize” it.
What does it matter now? The Marxist have total control. There is no opposition party. Pray.
AKA higher interest rates.
Interest rates are being kept artificially low by the Fed buying government securities to the tune of 85 billion dollars.
We know they are among the lowest interest rates in history.
We also know that the cost of our interest payment is about 350 billion a year. The interest bubble will soon burst, though, and if that even doubles to about 4%, that makes our interest payment more than the cost of the entire Dept of Defense including the war in Afghanistan.
If it goes to a normal 6-7%, then it’s as costly as the social security/Medicare program.
In other words, we’re screwed.
The Fed is riding this big interest bubble now, and they MUST have a lousy economy to keep inflation in check. If inflation increases, then the interest bubble is going to burst.
“And, this during the HOLIDAY Season????”
Consumer spending was up 2.1% during this period.
That’s standard procedure. The initial is a “flash” view which is filled with estimates. There are always two additional revisions. They already have the date for the next one. From the BEA press release:
Next release — March 28, 2013 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2012 (Third Estimate)
Tune in next week for a downward adjustment of 0.2%
Yeah. Which would make two down quarters, and an official recession. Gee, isn't Obama lucky?
Word.
Yep, they’re playing with fire. We’re the ones who will get burned. It would be nice to believe that Bernanke and Co. were well-meaning, but they’re not neutral. They’ve focused on rescuing not the financial system, but their banker friends. It’s a mess.
{{{{{{PRECEDENT BARACK OBAMA}}}}}}}}}}} <3 3< >3
“The U.S. economy grew in the fourth quarter’
1. What is “the economy.”?
2. Who is the “consumer.”?
3. How much “grew” in and around the counties of N. Virginia?
4. Who’s buying power has grown?
5. Who’s buying power has dropped?
6. Who got their salaries automatically raised?
The guys who write the laws off course.
But the downward adjustment happened in the second quarter, so therefore, the first quarter still had .1% growth, because perception is reality. Therefore, since reality was not perceived, it did not happen, so there is no recession, and we are forever at war with Eurasia.
“It’s the American public’s fault! They voted for that inexperienced neophyte Baraq Husein Ubama in 2008!” - Barack H. Obama
yeah, right... 
talk about fudging numbers again
i wouldn't believe them if they said .000001%
Woohoo let's celebrate! I'm a gonna buy me one of them thar Mursaidees Bens!!!
Nah. Consensus GDP for 1Q13 is north of 2%. Barring some disaster we were never going to have a technical recession anyway.
Hey! Maybe we can git Barack to buy one FOR us! Or at least git us a loan. No money down.
One each. I want mine in blue.
the economy has gone to crap but all these clowns want is for feces pushing sex to be legal in all states and then let them play happy famnlies whilst making the whites a minority.
ooppss guess I must be racist for pointing out that fact, ah well I couldn;t careless anymore
bump
It is noteworthy that the GDP is adjusted for “official” inflation. Since the BLS is lying through its teeth on that number, it is a safe bet that the real GDP was and is negative.
Rejoice comrades, the chocolate ration has been increased from 25 grams to 20 grams.
Since the BLS is dummying up the inflation rate numbers, I have to wonder if there really is any [genuine] growth in the GDP.
Thanks Mad Dawgg.
Bad news from Democratic rep: Sequester could cost America 170 million jobs (video)
Hotair
Posted on 02/28/2013 7:17:25 PM PST by chessplayer
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2992360/posts
Oh sorry. That was me. I'm making a scrap quilt, and I needed a certain color. I broke down and spent $1.99 on a fat quarter.
Sorry everybody. I was weak. I promise it won't happen again.
This is with a trillion dollars a year in federal defecit spending. With that much stimulus the economy should be roaring, but it is not, why? Because their isn’t a business in the country willing to hire or spend money while the Socialist in Chief has power.
Anyone who still thinks government debt spending helps the economy is a blithering idiot
We’re Number .1! We’re Number .1! We’re Number .1!!
Consumer incomes declined 3.6% in January, the biggest drop since '93.
If people out there hadn't noticed yet, this is fully the Economy of Smoke and Mirrors.
My guess is, unless the fudging continues unabated, that number is revised downward.
But that's just me...
CA....
PFFFFT!!
So, we should celebrate that the patient is recovering from his pneumonia when his cancer is terminal??
If you think all the numbers are made up and fudged then I can’t argue with that sort of, umm, logic and I’m not ping to waste my talking responding to people who cannot be reasoned with......... There are just way too many conspiracy theorists on this site. I’ve been on FR since the late 90’s and I’ve never seen it like this.
One last try but I’m sure you’ll just say this is all made up too...
Personal income decreased by $505.5 billion in January, or 3.6%, compared to December (on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis). That’s the most dramatic decline since January 1993, according to the Commerce Department.
It’s something of a combination of one-time events, though.
Monthly income was unusually high in December because companies paid out early dividends to avoid upcoming tax hikes. Companies like Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500), and Costco Wholesale Corp paid special dividends to their shareholders at the end of 2012, instead of waiting until 2013.
In doing so, they helped their high-income shareholders (individuals earning at least $400,000 a year, or married couples earning $450,000) avoid paying higher taxes on their gains. In their last-minute fiscal cliff deal, lawmakers decided to raise dividend tax rates for high-income households from 15% to 20%.
The payroll tax cut’s expiration also played a role in January’s drop, because most workers have to pay 2 percentage points more in taxes this year. The Commerce Department’s “personal income” calculation subtracts out individuals’ contributions to government social insurance programs like Social Security, which are funded by the payroll tax.
Excluding those special factors, the Commerce Department estimates that after-tax income actually increased 0.3% in January.
- See more at: http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/01/news/economy/income-spending-saving/#sthash.pz0YaQxu.dpuf
That would be the same as France and they’re lying about it too. The new guy in France is just as dopey as our new guy.
How about that spectacular "drop" in unemployment the month before the election? I'm not saying the numbers were "made up" (your term), but with almost all serious observers chiming in it was readily apparent that serious efforts were being made everywhere to dampen the sounds of incredulous throat-clearing and reflexive rolling of the eyes.
The Commerce Department (BEA) says without these one-time factors (forget about Hurricane Sandy; forget about 4-day work weeks; forget about...) it might have been a gain of 0.3%. Interesting.
All private sector wages and disbursements decreased for the period; only government and military wages increased.
Further, the BEA reports that of this $44.8 billion decrease (month over month), it attributed these "special factors" to $15.0 billion, at an annualized rate. That is their statement in the report.
(I don't bother with things like Money magazine, which does have an audience. I prefer to go straight to the source - http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm.)
I understand the impact of shifting dividends and bonuses in to the current year for tax advantages; they are not by any means uncommon occurrences. But there is a limit to who and how many people these factors impact.
From the report:
Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $44.8 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $49.1 billion in December. The January level of private wages and salaries was reduced by $15.0 billion (at an annual rate) in January, after a boost of $30.0 billion in December, reflecting the impact of accelerated bonuses in anticipation of changes to individual income tax rates. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $3.3 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $9.8 billion in December; manufacturing payrolls decreased $3.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $5.4 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $41.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $39.3 billion.
Government wage and salary disbursements increased $1.1 billion, compared with an increase of $0.8 billion. Pay raises for military personnel added $1.9 billion to government payrolls in January.
These areas bolded reflect mainly wages paid that declined; it has nothing to do with accelerated dividend payments or employer contributions, which do not factor in to the calculation of either personal income or DPI.
Let's assume here, for the sake of argument, that the Commerce Department's claim of a rise of 0.3% is what should have happened.
Hiring in January increased, a paltry 157,000 (non-farm payrolls). According to the latest JOLTS report http://www.bls.gov/jlt/, job openings (again, non-farm) were listed at 3.617 million for December (last month figures are available), with a hiring rate of 3.1%.
However, turnover was reported at 3.0%, quits (yes, they even exist today!) came in at 1.6%, and layoffs/discharges were reported at 1.2%.
Again, for the sake of argument, we'll extrapolate these numbers as ballpark into January, even though factors like discharging seasonal (holiday) workers and the like should be apparent.
For the month of January, wage increases for all workers was reported at $0.04/hr. Weekly hours worked did not increase (in manufacturing, they actually fell). The change in real hourly earnings was actually $0.02.
(These are all Department of Labor Current Employment Statistics - http://www.bls.gov/ces/).
Given these numbers - depressed hiring, no increase in hours worked, continued staggering initial and continuing unemployment claims, etc., etc., I have a hard time witnessing this spinning of flax into gold.
Maybe it does work out that way (I'm still going through BEA's methodology), but given the increasing politicization of supposedly independent and trust-worthy governmental departments under the Obama regime I'm starting to wonder.
Think I'm a conspiracy nut? Why did Judd Gregg drop the Commerce Department job like a hot potato before he even started it? And then, after you've pondered that, look at my join date.
Thank you for this discussion. I've enjoyed it.
CA....
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