Retail sales growth pauses as higher taxes kick in

Reuters ^ | February 13, 2013 | Reuters

[John W]

Retail sales barely rose in January as tax increases and higher gasoline prices restrained spending, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of consumer spending early in the first quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales edged up 0.1 percent after an unrevised 0.5 percent rise in December.

The modest gain, which was in line with economist's expectations, suggested that households were responding to the expiration of a two percent payroll tax cut on January 1. Taxes also went up for wealthy Americans.

[massmike]

It’s the blizzard’s fault!

[tomkat]

             

[SueRae]

Modest gain???? More like pitiful.. Honestly.

[John W]

I guess I’ve gotten so used to the msm carrying this administration’s water I totally missed that. Ridiculous.

[LibsRJerks]

Can’t spend it if you don’t have it.

Don’t even bother setting foot in malls or stores anymore, other than for food or essentials. Making do with many clothes from several seasons past. Always forced to pass up that latest new item. Don’t decorate the house anymore — can’t afford that either. It’s just pay the bills, try to pay off debts and nothing but the essentials after that. And we are a family with a six figure income. If I want the extras, I will have to get back to work, which i’m planning to do soon.

Sorry, if these bozos at the helm don’t understand how this affects regular middle classed families, then they are either stupid, or, as I suspect more than anything, are doing it purposesly to destroy us.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Analysis from Bill McBride at Calculated Risk:

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.7% from January 2012. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $416.6 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent from the previous month and 4.4 percent above January 2012. ... The November to December 2012 percent change was unrevised from +0.5 percent.

Sales for December were unrevised at a 0.5% gain.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 25.7% from the bottom, and now 9.9% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

The second graph shows the same data, but just since 2006 (to show the recent changes).

Retail sales ex-autos increased 0.2%.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 22.8% from the bottom, and now 10.3% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.8% on a YoY basis (4.4% for all retail sales).

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThis was above the consensus forecast of a 0.1% increase, and might indicate some slowdown in retail spending growth related to the payroll tax increase.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/02/retail-sales-increased-01-in-janaury.html#LAZWxgP7y8kzlV60.99

[tomkat]

Same here, but minus the 'six' part.

Custom woodwork has about disappeared from folks' priority lists since the coup of Idi Osissy and the marxist mafia in '08.

Last November was confirmation of the insanity.

[DocRock]

Firearms and ammunition sales were through the roof.

[Uncle Miltie]

Now, divide by population on that long-term graph to get at consumption per person.

“Growth” doesn’t count if consumption grows by 15% and population (including illegals) grows by 20%.

[1010RD]

The modest gain, which was in line with economist's expectations

This statement contains two lies. You're right, "modest" is editorializing. The number is so insignificant it is likely noise.

The second lie is even more insidious and goes to the heart of central planning- "economist's expectations". What is an economist? What is their track record for predictions? Who makes up this group of brilliant "economists" predicting and guiding our nation's financial path?

They're voodoo doctors who know a little more than the average American. If they're so great at predicting why aren't they retired on a beach somewhere?

[Wyatt's Torch]

So if Walmart grows same store revenue YOY by 5% it’ doesn’t count if its due to population growth? Okay.............................

[Uncle Miltie]

Let me amend my previous statement: National Consumption Growth doesn’t improve individual lives if Consumption per Person is simultaneously declining due to population growth.

There. Y’all okay with that there then now eh?

[BuffaloJack]

Captain Obvious.

[BfloGuy]

As you can see on those thoughtfully-provided charts, consumer spending is now significantly higher than before the recession. If anyone needs proof that consumer spending does not grow the economy, that should be enough.

Production creates economic growth. Not consumer spending.

[mbrfl]

Correct. Per capita retail sales would give a better indication of prosperity. Also, these sales figures are seasonally adjusted, but not inflation adjusted.

[JoanneSD]

Last year when this pay roll tax was being debated Obama got 40 or so people to whine that they needed the tax cut, and gave examples of how the extra 40 bucks would dramtacially chage their lives, guess these folks got their 10 mnutes of fame...and are now I hope eating crow..