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The Last Generation (America's Coming Demographic Disaster)
The Washington Free Beacon ^ | February 7, 2013 | Andrew Evans

Posted on 02/07/2013 7:05:47 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Are childrens’ car seats driving down the fertility rate in America?

Jonathan V. Last sees car seats as part of a “huge constellation of factors in modern life” that “nudge” people toward having fewer children, he said during an interview about his book, What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster.

Last said car seats effectively create a small “tax on people who want to have more than two kids” by making it harder to fit three kids into a normal sedan, which encourages parents to buy a larger car. This penalty may not dissuade people who already want more children from having them but it makes it “slightly harder to have big families.”

Last also noted there are other factors that have a measurable impact on fertility. Social Security and Medicare have dropped America’s fertility by about 0.5 births per woman, Last said. The safety net for the elderly has set up a “competing system” with the traditional role of families, where children take care of their elderly parents. Women’s education level measurably affects their fertility rates as well, he said.

“I am so not trying to tell people to have kids, it’s not even funny,” said Last, who has three children under 5 (and who drives a minivan). He also said he is not scapegoating women for the drop in fertility rate.

However, “you have to honestly talk about what the consequences are” of modern life, Last argued.

He said a major effect of the decline in America’s fertility rate will be an inversion of what he called the “age pyramid”: The elderly will outnumber the young. This inversion will cause economic stagnation, a loss of innovation, and a reduced defense budget to pay for entitlements.

Last cited an example from Japan, which he said is 30 years ahead of us demographically, in which the finance minister said the elderly should “hurry up and die” to relieve pressure on the country’s entitlement programs.

The finance minister, Last noted, did not lose his job.

Last said America’s debt is “tied up” in entitlements and pointed to problems in the assumptions governing the projections of the entitlements’ future.

The government is projecting fertility will stay at 2.0 births per woman, Last said—slightly higher than America’s current rate. The high variant in the government’s projections is 2.3, while the low is 1.7, Last said.

“It seems strange for demographers to assume that we can’t go below 1.7, because that’s a real possibility,” he said. Japan’s fertility rate is about 1.4.

When asked what society can do to combat the declining fertility rate and the consequent demographic shift, Last’s initial reaction was simple.

“Put on some Barry White, get really drunk, and make some really bad decisions,” he quipped.

He then gave a more sober response. “It is very, very difficult for government to achieve much change in the fertility rate at all except on the margins,” Last said.

He said for every 25 percent the government increases its spending on pro-natalist programs, the fertility rate increases by 0.05. He also noted that while he opposes abortion, eliminating it through government fiat likely would not increase the fertility rate by very much.

He instead advocated for policies that remove “impediments so the culture can rejuvenate itself.”

Last’s book, released on Tuesday, has already garnered attention. National Review posted a review of his book while the Wall Street Journal ran an essay by Last adapted from his book. Slate ran a feminist critique of the essay, which Last responded to on his blog.

Last is also giving a Bradley Lecture at the American Enterprise Institute on Feb. 11.

Last said he hopes the books sells well—“a bazillion copies” in his words—but he also said the potential attention did not drive him to write it.

“I didn’t write the book because I wanted it to have a big impact. I wrote it because I think it’s really interesting,” he said.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; Japan; News/Current Events; Philosophy
KEYWORDS: abortion; birthcontrol; collapse; demographicwinter; education; families; fertility; jonathanvlast; medicare; safetynet; socialsecurity; usa

1 posted on 02/07/2013 7:06:01 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
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To: 3D-JOY; abner; Abundy; AGreatPer; Albion Wilde; AliVeritas; alisasny; ALlRightAllTheTime; ...

PING!


2 posted on 02/07/2013 7:10:46 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Happy New Year!)
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To: 3D-JOY; abner; Abundy; AGreatPer; Albion Wilde; AliVeritas; alisasny; ALlRightAllTheTime; ...

PING!


3 posted on 02/07/2013 7:11:23 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Happy New Year!)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

What I found most difficult about raising children was battling the depraved culture throughout the years. Couldn’t let them out to play because we tend to allow pedophiles to roam the streets. Also had to fend off the public school rot by homeschooling and sacrificing to send them to private schools. Had to battle the carseats, yes, and the general preschool legions who set rules and regs for everything a mother ever did.

What I feel kept our family smaller was a lack of general extended family cohesiveness most of all. No one living nearby to help ...made child rearing a lot harder, made us less likely to want a huge brood. Just would have killed me to raise more than 3 all alone. Hubby also working way too hard and gone too much ...

I think it goes even deeper than they think.


4 posted on 02/07/2013 7:23:03 PM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks
Who can have kids when liberals have destroyed public schools and private schools are 10k+ a year?
5 posted on 02/07/2013 7:26:14 PM PST by Vision (Obama is king of the "Takers." Don't be a "Taker.")
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Don’t read the “feminist critique” shown above unless you have a strong stomach. She’s right of course. This whole misogynistic article has as it’s sole purpose the enslavement of middle class women. Right. The comments afterword are equally obnoxious.


6 posted on 02/07/2013 7:28:26 PM PST by lafroste
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To: lafroste

Don’t read the “feminist critique” shown above unless you have a strong stomach. She’s right of course. This whole misogynistic article has as it’s sole purpose the enslavement of middle class women. Right. The comments afterword are equally obnoxious.

**

These are liberals. They worship at the altar of death. What do you expect?

They like their newly derived economic power and sexual freedom, which they get from the existence of birth control. They aren’t going to give it up easily. This is what they value: freedom to do as they wish. Screw family values or a strong society. They do not care.


7 posted on 02/07/2013 7:39:06 PM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Definitely the culture has to change — family friendly, values-driven. What worries me is the lack of maturity and direction among the young. They will want to avoid ALL responsibility — finding a career, caring for parents, etc. Even if they had children, they would not know how to be effective role models. I predict a lot of early deaths — suicides, self-destruction (i.e. drugs, AIDS, etc.). The current generation will not age gracefully.


8 posted on 02/07/2013 7:42:33 PM PST by MoochPooch (I'm a compassionate cynic.)
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To: narses

One for your list?


9 posted on 02/07/2013 8:01:12 PM PST by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

God I’m glad I raised three boys, even though the cards are stacked against them today’s society. The are perfectly capable of fending for themselves, thanks to an education in how to get by without outside help.


10 posted on 02/07/2013 8:02:29 PM PST by factoryrat (We are the producers, the creators. Grow it, mine it, build it.)
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To: Vision

“Who can have kids when liberals have destroyed public schools and private schools are 10k+ a year?”

A lot of people making average salaries are finding a way to do it. I don’t mind people who don’t want kids (for whatever reason they opt to do so); I do mind when they complain about the number of foreigners surrounding them.


11 posted on 02/07/2013 8:26:24 PM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: MoochPooch

“Definitely the culture has to change — family friendly, values-driven. What worries me is the lack of maturity and direction among the young. They will want to avoid ALL responsibility — finding a career, caring for parents, etc. Even if they had children, they would not know how to be effective role models. I predict a lot of early deaths — suicides, self-destruction (i.e. drugs, AIDS, etc.). The current generation will not age gracefully.”

What you are predicting is already happening. On a positive note, the culture is changing to amore family-friendly one - but it isn’t Americans changing it. It is the “replacement Americans” from Asia & Latin America that are changing it; they are inheriting the Earth.

The stringy-haired femi-lesbos will have gone the way of the dodo while America’s under-20 population will look like the rest of the Third World.


12 posted on 02/07/2013 8:31:51 PM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: LibsRJerks

“I think it goes even deeper than they think.”

While I can certainly understand the challenges you faced, one thing that is stopping child-rearing dead in its tracks is a legal system that would deter any smart man from marriage itself (never mind children).


13 posted on 02/07/2013 8:34:04 PM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: kearnyirish2

For the right woman it’s worth it. The problem is finding one and finding one that’s not taken and interested in you.

Doesn’t matter unless they are interested in you and not someone else.


14 posted on 02/07/2013 9:02:31 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks
women's fertility rates?...I've read two articles about how western men have lower sperm counts and less testosterone....I don't think its women's fertitlity that's the problem....

but getting back to car seats.....the govt has made having a child an emotionally draining, worrisome job, not to even mention the money needed to do all the "right" things.....

member when we would all ride in a station wagon to go to the drive in movies....not a seat belt among us..kids piled up in the back....raising kids was easier and a lot more fun for we kids in the good ol days...

15 posted on 02/07/2013 10:09:30 PM PST by cherry
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To: kearnyirish2
the stringy haired lesbos and the silly, shallow, limp wristed,video game playing "men" that we seem to be producing in this country....

they get their sexual release from magazines and online porn....they can't connect with real women....

16 posted on 02/07/2013 10:19:13 PM PST by cherry
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To: cherry

I sort of agree with the article, the government is purposely making it difficult and expensive to have children, especially a lot of them.

But at the same time it seems to be trying to help with things like the child tax credits. It’s like it can’t make up it’s mind on the children issue, so all it’s policies are working against each other.


17 posted on 02/07/2013 11:18:40 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: JCBreckenridge

“For the right woman it’s worth it. The problem is finding one and finding one that’s not taken and interested in you.”

I agree; I’ve been married over 15 years (but she’s an import; came here as a kid, still a foreign national). Gave me a family!


18 posted on 02/08/2013 2:29:55 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: cherry

“and the silly, shallow, limp wristed,video game playing “men” that we seem to be producing in this country...they get their sexual release from magazines and online porn....they can’t connect with real women...”

I can go with that, though the ones I know connect with real women all the time; they just don’t marry/breed with them. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?


19 posted on 02/08/2013 2:33:01 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

“But at the same time it seems to be trying to help with things like the child tax credits. It’s like it can’t make up it’s mind on the children issue, so all it’s policies are working against each other.”

Even the child tax credits (which are a big help) can’t reduce the impact of the legal environment, where many men stand a good chance of paying for a house they don’t live in for kids they don’t see as soon as their wife gets bored. Raising a family in today’s economy is a lot of work, and working hard on the financial issues often contributes to the demise of a marriage.


20 posted on 02/08/2013 2:36:01 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: cherry

“women’s fertility rates?...I’ve read two articles about how western men have lower sperm counts and less testosterone....I don’t think its women’s fertitlity that’s the problem....”

Western men are breeding; it just isn’t with Western women. I’m not sure how they calculate “fertility rates”, but the problem is staring everyone in the face; I know many “Western men” who have sperm that work just fine with Hispanic and Asian women.


21 posted on 02/08/2013 2:41:25 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks
by making it harder to fit three kids into a normal sedan, which encourages parents to buy a larger car.

One of my friends recently bought a new car. The main factor in her choice - the Kia version of a Cube ... a Soul? - was that it could fit three child seats in the back. She measured it to make sure!

22 posted on 02/08/2013 3:15:17 AM PST by Tax-chick (Watch out for spiders.)
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To: kearnyirish2

“I can go with that, though the ones I know connect with real women all the time; they just don’t marry/breed with them. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?”

Which raises the question. We’ve all heard about how the guys are useless and weak. That if we just fix the guys the problems will all go away.

This assumes one thing. That it’s the guys who are the problem. What if it’s not the guys? What then?


23 posted on 02/08/2013 4:03:14 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: kearnyirish2

“and the silly, shallow, limp wristed,video game playing “men” that we seem to be producing in this country...they get their sexual release from magazines and online porn....they can’t connect with real women...”

**
Oh, they connect with them. They’re just not all that dynamic once they’re married. Have a friend who married a guy like this. Here they are newlyweds and yet all he does is game all day! I’m sorry, I would throw a wall eyed FIT over that one. He works for a living, but that’s about it.

They haven’t started with kids yet because he’s “just not ready.” (He’s almost 30 for crying out loud). I feel sorry for her. Then again, No, I don’t. She chose that existence and seems to enable it.


24 posted on 02/08/2013 4:45:01 AM PST by LibsRJerks
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks
Back in the 1980s I picked up a book at the discount table at a big book seller called “The Problem With Women”. The author was a psychologist that was very much a feminist, but he correctly diagnosed some of the major problems the direction the movement was causing in society (this book was written about 1976-1977).

He noted that modern women had developed a split personality. They were told they should aspire to hard work like men. Climb the corporate ladder like men. They could also have a husband (or not) and this “super job” would allow them to pursue a career while a nanny raised junior.

Men were told by these women that they weren't necessary, except as sperm donors. They didn't needed to marry the mother of their kids, but mom was able through the courts to make these men the woman's wage slave for 18 years (or through college) for HER kids. The woman had the final say whether she would birth his kids, and if the couple separated, he'd be paying child support and she'd decide whether he could see the kids or not. Under these conditions, men never outgrow adolescence and act like 18 when they are 65.

If the birth rate is shrinking, one of the first places to look is the feminist's war on men and boys. The feminist's have so stacked the deck against men that more and more men don't consider a traditional family as a serious option any more. Instead the act like a bunch of frat boys and are unbearably shallow when it comes to relationships.

The question that ought to be loudly asked of modern women: WHAT DO YOU WANT? The current war on men and boys is not working and it is producing all sorts of unintended consequences (like the rise of the sexually confused LBGT community, pedophiles, and animal husbandry lovers). What feminism has wrought has been extremely corrosive and destructive for society as a whole.

25 posted on 02/08/2013 5:15:22 AM PST by MasterGunner01
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To: LibsRJerks

Excellent and true. A half-century of anti-family policies have taken their toll.


26 posted on 02/08/2013 5:15:48 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Vision
That's why more and more people turn to homeschooling. All of my grandchildren are home-schooled.
27 posted on 02/08/2013 7:20:07 AM PST by Grandma Conservative (Take back the GOP Now, not in three years or be prepared to vote RINO once again.)
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To: kearnyirish2; cherry; KC_Lion

Just as I was reading this post, AMC had an ad on for their “Comicbook Men” show - they showed that most of the “geeks” were married (although it didn’t mention to what sex).

“I can go with that, though the ones I know connect with real women all the time; they just don’t marry/breed with them.”

My nephews, who are in their late 20’s have been doing this for years; they won’t consider marrying an American woman either (I guess they have listened to their uncle).

Although, “Kearney”, my younger nephew has just started dating a very nice looking, nicely mannered Argentinian chicka. The differences between foreign and domestic are so clear and wide.


28 posted on 02/08/2013 7:44:44 AM PST by GOPsterinMA (Time to musk up.)
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To: kearnyirish2; JCBreckenridge; KC_Lion; Impy

“I agree; I’ve been married over 15 years (but she’s an import; came here as a kid, still a foreign national).”

While not married (pretty much am, but for the paper), I wouldn’t trade my imported lady of 15 for anything...unless it was for a younger import. :)

Mine’s a dual citizen: Here and Italy.


29 posted on 02/08/2013 7:47:33 AM PST by GOPsterinMA (Time to musk up.)
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To: kearnyirish2; JCBreckenridge; KC_Lion; Impy

“I wouldn’t trade my imported lady of 15 for anything...unless it was for a younger import. :)”

OMG, I forgot to add “years” after 15.

Been with her for 15 years; no I’m not a pedo/Muslim.


30 posted on 02/08/2013 7:55:20 AM PST by GOPsterinMA (Time to musk up.)
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To: GOPsterinMA
I knew what you meant ;)

You just know what you like. :D

31 posted on 02/08/2013 8:06:24 AM PST by KC_Lion (Build the America you want to live in at your address, and keep looking up.-Sarah Palin)
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To: KC_Lion

Yes my friend, you do! :)


32 posted on 02/08/2013 9:55:19 AM PST by GOPsterinMA (Time to musk up.)
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To: JCBreckenridge

“Which came first, the chicken or the egg?”

It was a rhetorical question; the satisfaction of one side with the status quo, and the dissatisfaction with the other (it is plastered everywhere), tells EVERYONE who the problem is. The former are quite content to marry “other” women; the same doesn’t apply to the latter.


33 posted on 02/08/2013 11:38:48 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: LibsRJerks

I know couples (with either very young children or grown children) who game together; they actually bond with it. As a former gamer myself (from 1980s arcades, not the home systems) there are certainly worse things people can do. As a father I don’t like seeing the kids play too much, and I get them out hiking bright & early (weather permitting) no matter how much they kick & scream.

Single guys I know “connect” with real women all the time; they simply don’t want to get married, and the women are permissive enough so they don’t have to. I can never understand why women who give it away so easily (to the point of co-habitating) are complaining; they are the enablers of this subculture that is rapidly becoming THE culture.


34 posted on 02/08/2013 11:43:47 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: GOPsterinMA

“The differences between foreign and domestic are so clear and wide.”

Just more examples of Dem voters shooting themselves in the feet; blacks support Dems who import Latinos who steal their jobs, and women support Dems who import Latinas who steal their menfolk...

This country has gone overboard in emasculating men; now they are paying the price as those men flock to cultures that still have “men”.


35 posted on 02/08/2013 11:47:45 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: GOPsterinMA

I got the “15”, but that was smart to clarify. The duel citizenship is only recognized by the other countries; the US doesn’t recognize that.

Well, to each their own and all in good time, but I hope you don’t leave this world without leaving some mini-GOPsters behind. Sometimes I feel like a milk bottle standing out in a crowd of Dr. Pepper cans...


36 posted on 02/08/2013 11:52:21 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Why don’t you go sit over there? ;)


37 posted on 02/08/2013 9:33:20 PM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas is a state of mind - Steinbeck)
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To: kearnyirish2

Like you’ve posted many, many times “they won”.

How does the “victory” taste, Dems? I guess as long as they can have BDay parties for their cats and buy batteries for their “massagers”, they can be “happy”.

Yep...they “won”!

Love your comment about Western men’s sperm working just fine with Hispanic and Asian women.


38 posted on 02/09/2013 8:35:58 AM PST by GOPsterinMA (Time to musk up.)
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To: GOPsterinMA

“Love your comment about Western men’s sperm working just fine with Hispanic and Asian women.”

Thanks; while American women are entitled to their share of complaining, it is absurd to suggest the unhappiness is equal on both sides of the gender divide. You would think that American women would appreciate what their menfolk are when they attempt to date men from the same cultures in which American men are finding women; unlike those men, we don’t make our women walk three paces behind us, slap them around as a cultural norm (where it is practically expected, and completely accepted), or practice polygamy. Rather than concede this, they simply whine and waste away, while our little half-breeds (from any breed of your choice) are the next generation of “Americans”.


39 posted on 02/09/2013 9:58:32 AM PST by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: GOPsterinMA

I was gonna ask if she was 15. ;)

15 years, that is a long time. Clinton impeachment was going on. Common law wife I’d say.

My parents probably stopped doing it after 15 years.


40 posted on 02/10/2013 10:13:09 PM PST by Impy (All in favor of Harry Reid meeting Mr. Mayhem?)
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