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CBO: THE DEFICIT WILL SHRINK MASSIVELY IN COMING YEARS
Business Insider ^ | 02/05/2013 | Sam Ro

Posted on 02/05/2013 11:07:51 AM PST by SeekAndFind

cbo deficit projection

CBO

The CBO has just published its Budget and Economic Outlook.

The big headline: the CBO expects the U.S. budget deficit to fall to $845 billion this year.  This would be the first reading under $1 trillion in five years.

They also estimate that the deficit falls to $616 billion in 2014 and as low as $430 billion in 2015.

They assume unemployment rates of 8.0 percent in 2013 and 7.6 percent in 2014.  They also assume GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2013 accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2014.

Here are the CBO's long-term budget projections:

cbo deficit projection

CBO


And here are the economic projections:

cbo economic projection

CBO

Download the full report here.

Below is the CBO's statement:
========================

The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023

Economic growth will remain slow this year, CBO anticipates, as gradual improvement in many of the forces that drive the economy is offset by the effects of budgetary changes that are scheduled to occur under current law. After this year, economic growth will speed up, CBO projects, causing the unemployment rate to decline and inflation and interest rates to eventually rise from their current low levels. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 7½ percent through next year; if that happens, 2014 will be the sixth consecutive year with unemployment exceeding 7½ percent of the labor force—the longest such period in the past 70 years.


(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: budget; cbo; deficit
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To: SeekAndFind

Government programs always cost more than projected; cost overruns on government contracts are the norm; the government always spends more year-over-year; economic projections invariably are rosier than ultimate reality . . . but the CBO says the deficit will narrow going forward. How quaint.


41 posted on 02/05/2013 11:51:41 AM PST by AtlasStalled
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To: phormer phrog phlyer

They are not correct because they are lied to and fed “rosy scenarios” all the time.
They are not correct here, either.


42 posted on 02/05/2013 11:54:44 AM PST by Little Ray (Waiting for the return of the Gods of the Copybook Headings.)
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To: AtlasStalled
 photo obamaeconomyworld_zpsaf2f7f95.jpg
43 posted on 02/05/2013 11:56:38 AM PST by timestax (AMERICAN MEDIA= DOMESTIC ENEMY)
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To: SeekAndFind
CBO estimates are like any government estimate. for instance if the Defense Dept announces a new fighter plane is to be built and they say it will cost 1x number of dollars before all is said it done it will be 2x or more.

Example the F-22 was slated to cost around 177 Million per aircraft. The final cost is over 339 million per aircraft.

In other words its all bunk!

44 posted on 02/05/2013 11:58:24 AM PST by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the 2nd one...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hmmm, the cover letter to the CBO report begins, “Once upon a time . . .”


45 posted on 02/05/2013 11:58:57 AM PST by choirboy
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To: SeekAndFind

I checked the deficit figure for Oct, Nov and Dec. The total is $378B. Annualized, FY 13 deficit will be higher than FY12. Also in every article, the monthly deficit exceeded last years number and exceed expectations.....


46 posted on 02/05/2013 12:00:44 PM PST by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: SeekAndFind

I checked the deficit figure for Oct, Nov and Dec. The total is $378B. Annualized, FY 13 deficit will be higher than FY12. Also in every article, the monthly deficit exceeded last years number and exceed expectations.....


47 posted on 02/05/2013 12:00:58 PM PST by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: SeekAndFind

The numbers for 2013 might not be too far off. We might not be too far under 1.4% growth. For 2014 forward, it’s comedy night.


48 posted on 02/05/2013 12:05:19 PM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: Izzy Dunne

That guy was way more credible and entertaining than Jay Carney.


49 posted on 02/05/2013 12:07:29 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: SeekAndFind

This must be what it was like to live in the Soviet Union and read Pravda and Izvestia.


50 posted on 02/05/2013 12:16:14 PM PST by Count of Monte Fisto
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To: SeekAndFind
Even IF these numbers are correct (which they won't be)...we are talking $24 trillion in debt by 2023.

$24 TRILLION is the BEST scenario. That's something to get EXCITED about?

51 posted on 02/05/2013 12:16:53 PM PST by NELSON111
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To: SeekAndFind
From the CBO statement:

As a result of those factors, revenues are projected to grow from 15.8 percent of GDP in 2012 to 19.1 percent of GDP in 2015

So CBO assumes a 20.9% increase in revenues.

Was our recent tax increase 21%?

And will a 21% increase in tax rate necessarily translate to a 21% increase in tax revenue?

In addition, they assume a rise in income because of the growing economy when the economy contracted during Q4 2012.

Also from the CBO statement:

outlays are projected to decline from 22.8 percent of GDP in 2012 to 21.5 percent by 2017

Does anyone on FR really expect Federal outlays to decrease with Democrats and big gov't Republicans apparently in control of spending?

52 posted on 02/05/2013 12:19:16 PM PST by LucianOfSamasota (Tanstaafl - its not just for breakfast anymore...)
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To: SeekAndFind

             

53 posted on 02/05/2013 12:58:39 PM PST by tomkat
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To: DManA
In 2004 they projected we’d be in surplus in 2012.

They might have been right. In January 2007, the deficit was around 165 billion, down from about 248 billion the previous year. Of course, something changed in January 2007, but I can't remember what that was.

54 posted on 02/05/2013 5:05:17 PM PST by TwelveOfTwenty (Ho, ho, hey, hey, I'm BUYcotting Chick-Fil-A)
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To: TwelveOfTwenty

Yes. Increasing spending, temporarily cut tax rates weighted to the lower income end. To this day lots of folks here refuse to admit it was folly.


55 posted on 02/05/2013 5:21:40 PM PST by DManA
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To: DManA
At that rate, the deficit may have been paid by 2008. May have, because the Dems cooked up another crisis for us.
56 posted on 02/05/2013 5:35:51 PM PST by TwelveOfTwenty (Ho, ho, hey, hey, I'm BUYcotting Chick-Fil-A)
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To: SeekAndFind

After thorough assessment of the facts included in this article I’d have to conclude this is some serious and HEAVY BULL$HIT designed to be used to help keep the socialist show going.


57 posted on 02/05/2013 6:12:56 PM PST by VideoDoctor
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To: SeekAndFind

The Democrats can argue we can afford higher taxes, we can afford single payer, we can afford more entitlements - and the deficit is shrinking!

In a center left country, its hard to beat Santa Claus.


58 posted on 02/05/2013 11:38:38 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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