Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Kaslin
The price of crude is close to 100 bucks a barrel..that tells me the markets expect economic growth... I don't pay much attention to the politicians numbers good or bad.
7 posted on 01/30/2013 5:45:01 PM PST by montanajoe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: montanajoe
The price of crude is close to 100 bucks a barrel..that tells me the markets expect economic growth...

It tells me the same thing, but it doesn't tell me where they expect economic growth. I'd bet on the BRICs or on Japan finally getting out of its long-term slump (or at least fully out of its post-Tsunami recession -- already signs of that with Toyota back ahead of GM as top auto manufacturuer) before I'd bet on the U.S. while Obama's in office.

10 posted on 01/30/2013 5:52:11 PM PST by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies ]

To: montanajoe

It isn’t the case that every commodity bubble indicates future industrial demand.

And it isn’t the case that every stock market bubble indicates future increase in earnings LOL

The ‘price forecasting growth’ model is a bunch of hooey.


13 posted on 01/30/2013 6:04:17 PM PST by steve86 (Acerbic by Nature, not NurtureĀ™)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies ]

To: montanajoe
The price of crude oil is around $100 - not because the economy is expected to improve - but rather because the FED continues to print money with no wealth to back it up to the tune of $85 Billion per month.
14 posted on 01/30/2013 6:06:52 PM PST by USMA '71 ((Re-elect no one!))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies ]

To: montanajoe

You need to look beyond the cost of a barrel of crude having only one indicator. It is far more complicated than that (supply/demand, which countries are stockpiling, who is hoarding hoping to unload it if it goes up because they know of some governmental activity that will cause a shortage). It is also directly tied to the dollar. So if the dollar is in the tank, crude goes up, and vice-versa. If you google for a graph overlaying the value of the dollar vs. the cost of a barrel for the past 20 years, you will see an almost perfect mirror image as the rise in one results in a decline in the other.

If you want a better vanguard, keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Shipment Index. It is in the tank, because no one plans on shipping anything, because no one plans on selling anything.


18 posted on 01/30/2013 6:26:56 PM PST by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare for survival.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson