You need to look beyond the cost of a barrel of crude having only one indicator. It is far more complicated than that (supply/demand, which countries are stockpiling, who is hoarding hoping to unload it if it goes up because they know of some governmental activity that will cause a shortage). It is also directly tied to the dollar. So if the dollar is in the tank, crude goes up, and vice-versa. If you google for a graph overlaying the value of the dollar vs. the cost of a barrel for the past 20 years, you will see an almost perfect mirror image as the rise in one results in a decline in the other.
If you want a better vanguard, keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Shipment Index. It is in the tank, because no one plans on shipping anything, because no one plans on selling anything.
I agree that just looking at one indicator is foolhardy. But making investment decisions based on ones political beliefs is equally foolhardy. I actually take lots of factors into consideration and I’m betting on slow choppy growth in the next 2-3 years..