Posted on 01/30/2013 11:35:47 AM PST by blam
Just talking about this,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETNX
If we have hit the long term support bottom in August, there is only two options, inflation, or stagflation.
No one in the history of the world knows how to unwind this unprecedented stimulus, the world is awash in digital currency, ...
John Williams Forecasts U.S. Dollar Hyperinflation Before End Of 2014
We’ve both been on FR and online forums for a long time, I’ve lost all faith in John Williams and ShadowStats. 7 years ago we would have been sitting here trying to analysis the tea leaves Williams was dropping in his free reports. No more for me.
I’d sit down and drink with the guy and bullshit about the world and how it’s falling apart, but I have seen too many impeccably written retorts to his information to giver any further credence to his body of work related to ShadowStats calculated implied rates of , UE6, M3, etc.
Because fed pumping is helping growth in Asia not in the US, better tax laws and opportunity.
Yes...fair enough.
I’m commenting here mainly so that smarter people than me can tell me how I’m wrong.
In my opinion, inflation is masked over the last couple of decades by a couple of things. For one, computers, internet, telecommunications, have revolutionized all kinds of things and this has helped to keep prices low and going lower.
Offshoring our manufacturing has kept prices low.
A collapsing economy has cut the price of housing.
A weak economy also affects the demand for trucking, making it lower than it would otherwise be, which helps to keep fuel lower than it otherwise would be.
High unemployment keeps wages from rising much if at all.
Thats aside from the games that the statisticians play, where they claim that something is better, hence the higher cost isn’t really a higher cost. (Similar to the games they play with unemployment figures, where if you’re out of work long enough they stop counting you). The 2% figure, I believe, is a lie.
Still, whatever is the true figure, its lower than it would be if the economy wasn’t on the rocks and we weren’t innovating, and we weren’t letting Chinese do our work for us.
Check the inflation rate of food and ammo.
And, I meant to say.
I've been giving a little more attention to articles these days that state 'when' their predictions will happen.
I'm pretty sure that TS(will)HTF...I just don't know if it's tomorrow or ten years from now. I like hearing all opinions on the 'when.'
2% Inflation???
Seriously??
Anyone who has bought groceries or fuel in the past 12 months knows that the “real” inflation rate is probably around 12% per year.
Just like the unemployment rate is 7.something when 8 million fewer people are employed than four years ago.
I just can’t tell if I’m reading Pravda or Tass.
No inflation?
4 years ago I was surprised when my shopping total went over $200 or $250 dollars.
Last week my bill topped $400 for the first time ever
We have plenty of inflation, but prices are measured in such a way as to hide the real inflation rate.
That's exactly my motivation for posting these articles.
I learn much from the questions and comments of others...often, I don't even know what question to ask. So..... (The hard part is steering clear of the Smart Alecs)
All bad news, all policy consequences of liberalism, will be hidden until they can’t be hidden anymore,
then those consequences will be blamed on the opponents of liberalism.
We’re already seeing this - the fourth quarter negative GDP is being blamed on Republicans.
September 2015.
Google Jonathan Cahn and listen to an interview with him to know why I say that.
Judgement 1 was Sept 11, 2001.
Judgement 2 was Sept, 2008 (economic crash).
Judgement 3 is Sept, 2015.
All on the “jubilee” 7 yr cycle.
1) High Powered Money = M = Coin and Currency = Printing Press Money.
2) Physical purchases of precious metals are not counted in any of the M numbers M1, M2, ...)
3) Since physical precious metal purchases are generally excess liquid funds (i.e.Coin and Currency) much of the increase in High Powered Money is drained by the increase in precious metal purchases.
4) Velocity of Money V is vastly impacted by loan demand.
5) While banks would love to loan out the excess Coin and Currency, industry managers are not willing to borrow money as long as an avowed socialist occupies the White House and his minions in Congress harbor the most business unfriendly sentiments seen in decades. So, as the old saying goes, "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink" regardless of the price (interest rates) of water which figuratively speaking today is ZERO.
6) Without loan demand, the money multiplier effect of High Powered Money is largely negated regardless of the increases in the other M measures.
Yes, with the BIG CAVEAT: "Ceteris Paribus", or "All things remaining equal"
But if the Velocity of money simultaneously slows dramatically, it is entirely possible for Money Supply to expand without inflation.
So, if banks don't lend the excess cash, and corporations don't spend (invest) their excess capital, what happens inflation-wise? Nothing.
Yet.
But Monday's WSJ had three articles pointing to the beginning of asset bubbles: The price of Stocks, Houses and Bonds are all up.
All that cash is starting to chase things. Bubble-mania, here we go again!
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