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Oil Guru Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom
TBI ^ | 1-21-2013 | Rob Wile

Posted on 01/21/2013 7:21:50 PM PST by blam

Oil Guru Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

Rob Wile
Jan. 20, 2013, 10:20 AM

Not everyone believes the U.S. is capable of becoming energy independent thanks to its shale oil and gas reserves, as the International Energy Association suggested recently.

The math just doesn't work out, they say — America consumes too much.

But some are even more skeptical than that.

Arthur Berman, an oil analyst with Labyrinth Consulting Services, says the promise of America's shale reserves have been vastly overstated.

His main argument: shale is too expensive to drill, and shale wells usually don't last longer than a couple of years.

Last year, he laid out his case at a gathering of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in Austin Texas.

With his permission, we've reproduced it here.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bakken; bhoenergy; economy; energy; oil; peakoil; recovery; shale
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To: Sequoyah101
Thanks for the insight.

Once again, posters here are confusing Shale Oil (trapped oil - Baaken) with Oil Shale (Kerogen - Green River) and oil sands (Bitumen - Alberta).

An excellent description of the differences is here.

The bottom line is that only Oil Sands is going to have a significant impact on North American energy independence, by adding another million or so barrels a day to Canadian oil exports by 2020.

Long term, Thorium is the answer.

21 posted on 01/21/2013 11:57:05 PM PST by Praxeologue
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To: Zhang Fei
why has production at Bakken been increasing?

Your link shows Baaken oil production of 660,000 barrels per day in late 2012, versus U.S. consumption of 20 million barrels per day.

22 posted on 01/22/2013 12:02:53 AM PST by Praxeologue
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To: blam

He is right. We drill locally but also conserve at the same time.


23 posted on 01/22/2013 1:17:43 AM PST by Cronos (Middle English prest, priest, Old English pruost, Late Latin presbyter, Latin presbuteros)
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To: blam

avoid both OPEC and oil companies...

the electric car


24 posted on 01/22/2013 3:23:28 AM PST by RockyTx
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To: crusty old prospector
Even Hugo Chavez will be sending oil our way for a long time.

Maybe Venezuela, but Hugo isn't going to be doing anything on this earth for a long time.

25 posted on 01/22/2013 3:27:38 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: spokeshave

Thanks, what a liar he is . Maybe title should be “oily guru.”


26 posted on 01/22/2013 3:35:36 AM PST by gusopol3
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To: blam
"Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas"

Why study when you've already made up your minds?

27 posted on 01/22/2013 3:39:00 AM PST by Fresh Wind (The last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away.)
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To: Kennard
U.S. consumption of 20 million barrels per day.

The US does not consume 20 MMBPD of oil.

US Petroleum Product Supplied
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm

While the total liquids is 18~19 MMBPD, that includes natural gas liquids, ethanol and the like. The products refined from oil are around 16 MMBPD.

Texas and other locations are also increasing in production. We are not dependent only on one or two fields. Texas has increased by a million barrels per day in about 2 1/2 years.

Texas Field Production of Crude Oil
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPTX2&f=M

28 posted on 01/22/2013 3:44:48 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: sgtyork

Weather whether summer or winter is a big player no matter where your at but more so up nth. Even down here in the Permian basin ice and snow can shut us down due to bad road conditions. While they thaw out pretty quick we then have to deal with the mud. I had to shut in 72 wells this summer due to heavy rains, roads were so bad my tanks were getting full and I couldn’t get the oil haulers in. Thats just the way it is in the patch.


29 posted on 01/22/2013 3:50:15 AM PST by Dusty Road
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To: hinckley buzzard

I’ve got some Wolfcamp wells over by Forsan TX that have been producing longer than that.


30 posted on 01/22/2013 3:54:28 AM PST by Dusty Road
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To: Graewoulf
We may not be past the point of "peak oil".

But it's difficult to deny that we are past the point of peak cheap oil.

The days of $1.50 gasoline are gone forever.

31 posted on 01/22/2013 4:49:04 AM PST by Notary Sojac (Ut veniant omnes)
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To: blam

The oil companies have over played their hand and kept gas prices too high and for too long. Usually they drop after a couple of years of profit taking so the SUV drivers feel safe in replacing their behemoths.. Now I see many are giving up low mileage vehicles forever. Look for consumption to level off and/or go down.


32 posted on 01/22/2013 5:10:42 AM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Notary Sojac

“The days of $1.50 gasoline are gone forever.”

If this are any future admin would step up and simply say we are going to open up all available resources both onshore and off and started doing it, we would see prices plummit over night. When the price went up over 4 bucks what did Bush do and what was the reaction?


33 posted on 01/22/2013 5:25:30 AM PST by Dusty Road
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To: central_va

“The oil companies have over played their hand and kept gas prices too high and for too long.”

And how have they done that?


34 posted on 01/22/2013 5:34:45 AM PST by Dusty Road
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To: Notary Sojac

The peak of global cheap oil occurred in 1972-3.

Then as now, it is all about supply and demand.

The amount of Oil and Gas in the Earth is finite, and the demand is infinite - - -, do the Math.

BTW, it takes a minimum of 1 Million years to create crude oil. Tick-tock - - - .


35 posted on 01/22/2013 5:42:17 AM PST by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Commune Obama"care" violates Anti-Trust Laws, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: blam
1. The shale play is more Natural Gas than oil, but oil is a part of it. 2. With horizontal drilling the vertical part of the well can be used multiple times to go horizontal in different directions, adding to the life and economies of each well. 3. Natural gas is so cheap now many wells are just being capped until the price goes up. 4. Hydrocarbons only need to get us by until we have a better (working, not green fantasy) solution. By all reasonable accounts we have 100 years or more supply. Think of how technology has changed in the last 100 years and how fast it is changing now.
36 posted on 01/22/2013 6:03:09 AM PST by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
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To: Graewoulf

“Oil and Gas reserves are mainly a function of price”

Exactly. The price of natural gas is barely above $3 per Mcf. The producers are taking rigs offline to reduce supply and increase prices.


37 posted on 01/22/2013 6:27:09 AM PST by sergeantdave (The FBI has declared war on the Marine Corps)
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To: hinckley buzzard

and which is now a beehive of activity with new wells being drilled sometimes along side an existing well.


38 posted on 01/22/2013 6:33:23 AM PST by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 .....The fairest Deduction to be reduced is the Standard Deduction)
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To: hinckley buzzard

Indeed. And what is his explanation for the increase in production from the Permian Basin in West Texas, where we have been pumping oil since al least 1940?

.....

Shale fields that were not economic to produce with last century’s technology.

Horizontal Steerable Drilling combined with Hydraulic Fracturing makes the shale plays economic to produce when combined with today’s oil prices.


39 posted on 01/22/2013 7:04:39 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Graewoulf

“BTW, it takes a minimum of 1 Million (sic) years to create crude oil. Tick-tock” - GW

That is perhaps the biggest crock I have ever read on FR.

Have you ever taken a Chemistry course? Do you know what oil is?

I think the Nazi chemists were making synthetic oil during WWII. If I am not mistaken WWII lasted slightly less than 1 million years.


40 posted on 01/22/2013 7:16:59 AM PST by Triple (Socialism denies people the right to the fruits of their labor, and is as abhorrent as slavery)
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