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Statistician Nate Silver predicts Seahawks-Patriots rematch in Super Bowl(Seahawks Lose Today)
SeattlePI ^ | 1-10-2013 | Nick Eaton

Posted on 01/13/2013 3:10:22 PM PST by Colonel Kangaroo

Nate Silver, the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blogger and statistician who rose to prominence accurately predicting sports and elections, has run the numbers and has come to a conclusion: The Seahawks, he predicts, will play in the Super Bowl.

There, they’ll take on the New England Patriots, Silver thinks. And while the Seahawks may not be the second-best team in the NFL — Silver says that’s probably the Denver Broncos — they may just be the best team in the NFC.

“There’s always uncertainty with any metric,” Silver told ESPN’s “First Take.” “I do think with a Seattle team that did come on so strongly in the second half, you worry, can other coaches readjust to them potentially? Talent-wise I’m not sure it’s a team that has as much pure talent as certainly a New England or Denver might, and that’s why the coaching could catch up to them eventually in the postseason, I think.”

Silver said he looked mainly at figures from Football Outsiders, a leading statistical analysis site that takes not just overall season numbers, but picks apart every NFL play and weights them based on situational context.

For instance, based on a statistic called DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), Football Outisders gives the Seahawks a 30.0 percent chance of making the Super Bowl — ranking fourth among the remaining NFL playoff teams — and a 15.6 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Broncos had the best chance of winning at 24.3 percent, the Patriots were next with 23.6 percent and the 49ers were fourth at 15.2 percent.

But Football Outsiders thinks the Niners have a slightly better chance than Seattle to make the Super Bowl, ranking third at 31.5 percent. Of course, it all depends on the conference champion matchups after this weekend’s second-round playoff games, during which the Seahawks travel to Atlanta and the 49ers host the Green Bay Packers.

“San Francisco obviously also played very well for much of the year,” Silver told ESPN, “but in terms of the balance overall between offensive and defensive play, Seattle had that best balance throughout the year and really, again, in the second half were blowing people out by 50-7 scores and so forth. So they had the best stats from the regular season. Again, you can worry about, will teams adjust to them, will Russell Wilson be a guy that won’t surprise people as much in the playoffs now? But I think, if you have to pick one team in the NFC, I’m still comfortable with the Seahawks.”

Of course, the Seahawks beat the Patriots 24-23 in Week 6 of the regular season, when QB Wilson hit wide receiver Sidney Rice for the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter Oct. 14 at CenturyLink Field.

You can watch Silver’s entire “First Take” segment at ESPN.com.


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: natesilver; nfl
The Atlanta Falcons eliminate the Seahawks. Mr. Wizard is not infallible.
1 posted on 01/13/2013 3:10:26 PM PST by Colonel Kangaroo
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Seattle did cover, though.


2 posted on 01/13/2013 3:12:58 PM PST by RugerMini14
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

I told my liberal daughter that our Seahawks had the curse put on them when I earlier heard Silver yapping about SEA being in the Super Bowl.

Once again - Dad is right


3 posted on 01/13/2013 3:15:21 PM PST by llevrok (ObamaLand - Where young people go to retire)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Moneyball DVD’s half price.


4 posted on 01/13/2013 3:16:46 PM PST by Morris70
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

The only reason this little putz predicted the election is because he was aware the fix was in.


5 posted on 01/13/2013 3:21:14 PM PST by dforest
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

There’s no secret inside information the NFL can give him, unlike the Obama administration with all their internal polling data.


6 posted on 01/13/2013 3:21:52 PM PST by jpl (The government spent another half a million bucks in the time it just took you to read this tagline.)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

He forgot about the “On Any Given Sunday” rule...


7 posted on 01/13/2013 3:25:33 PM PST by Paisan
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Not very much consolation. Do you follow him around and cheer when he stubs his toe?


8 posted on 01/13/2013 3:25:42 PM PST by SengirV
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To: dforest

Exactly, Nate works with the Obama campaign team. That’s the equivalent of calling the first play of the game when the Offensive Coordinator tell you exactly what they will run.


9 posted on 01/13/2013 3:31:19 PM PST by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: ilgipper

he was their conduit to the little scumbag lefty voters to keep the faith. Also why Ostinko didn’t give a crap about doing well in debates. Why bother, he already knew he was going to win.

Believe me, the dems will also “fix” the mid terms too.


10 posted on 01/13/2013 3:40:24 PM PST by dforest
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

He predicted that Notre Dame would at least cover the spread in the BCS Championship Game.

Trends in vote fraud hotspots could have told him what states would do what in the 2012 election.


11 posted on 01/13/2013 3:44:30 PM PST by petitfour
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To: petitfour

He’s obviously starting to believe his own ridiculous press too much.


12 posted on 01/13/2013 3:52:55 PM PST by jpl (The government spent another half a million bucks in the time it just took you to read this tagline.)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo
Stick to a bloodsport you and your ilk can fix like politics, you little penis-boy.
13 posted on 01/13/2013 3:53:13 PM PST by Captainpaintball
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Well, he would be wrong.


14 posted on 01/13/2013 3:53:19 PM PST by svcw (Why is one cell on another planet considered life, and in the womb it is not.)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

He’s not a “statistician”. He’s the left’s spokepesperson for the Odumbo campaign while waorking for the NY Slimes.

I guess he was able to predict the layoffs at the NYT s/


15 posted on 01/13/2013 3:53:38 PM PST by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: dforest

Yeah, I personally found absolutely nothing suspicious with Silver switching every swing state at the last minute to Obama.

Nothing suspicious at all.


16 posted on 01/13/2013 3:54:13 PM PST by flintsilver7 (Honest reporting hasn't caught on in the United States.)
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To: dforest

True, Carnac the Magnificent had all the answers too.

But that was a better time...


17 posted on 01/13/2013 3:54:30 PM PST by Clarence
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Silver just got lucky when he predicted 49 of 50 states in the Election of 2008 and 50 of 50 states in the Election of 2012 and almost every US Senate races during those elections.

Now, it has been proven that Silver’s predictions, using all his statistical data are no better than a coin flip.


18 posted on 01/13/2013 3:58:25 PM PST by OKRA2012
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Football scores aren’t preordained by the corrupt collusion of the left wing of the democratic party, media and outright fraud, for the most part.


19 posted on 01/13/2013 4:04:22 PM PST by MacMattico
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To: OKRA2012

Well, if he’s such a wizard, and his predictions are so golden, I guess you and the rest of us can just quit working and make an outstanding living just betting his predictions, right?


20 posted on 01/13/2013 4:04:34 PM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: OKRA2012

The fact of the matter, whether we like to admit it or not, is that polling has become very accurate in recent years, because there is so much of it being done, and the methodologies have become well refined. Anyone who has access to all the polling that he does is going to basically make the same predictions. It’s not nearly as big a deal as the liberal media wants us to believe.


21 posted on 01/13/2013 4:04:55 PM PST by jpl (The government spent another half a million bucks in the time it just took you to read this tagline.)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

"OK, Timeout!"

"Wait!? He missed that field goal! I didn't call Timeout?! I didn't!"

22 posted on 01/13/2013 4:08:13 PM PST by SkyPilot
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

SO maybe it will be Obama Vs. Patriots.
A match we’re going to see anyway for the next four years.


23 posted on 01/13/2013 4:12:51 PM PST by supremedoctrine
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To: SkyPilot
I bet he wishes he had that timeout left when Seattle got the ball back. One more completion from Russell, and they would have been within field goal range.

I don't get the whole 'ice the kicker' routine. These are professional athletes. One is better off letting them kick with the play clock running down especially considering that they are expecting a timeout to be called.

24 posted on 01/13/2013 4:17:41 PM PST by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

“Well, if he’s such a wizard, and his predictions are so golden, I guess you and the rest of us can just quit working and make an outstanding living just betting his predictions, right?”

No, markets only work when their are those who make predictions that turn out to be wrong. Those players who are best at analyzing data usually make the more accurate predictions and win most of the time.

Eventually, those who are inferior at analyzing data will wash out of the market and those who are best will thrive.

In the end, maybe 5-10% of the players will truly succeed and all other players will perish or hardly survive.

Even those who are best at analyzing data and making predictions are wrong once in a while.

If I were to bet on someone predicting which baseball prospects will be the best MLB players, who will win an election, or who will execute the best trading strategies or who will win the most money at poker, I will go with Nate Silver.


25 posted on 01/13/2013 4:49:43 PM PST by OKRA2012
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To: Colonel Kangaroo
Nate Silver, the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blogger and statistician who rose to prominence accurately predicting sports and elections...

He just had inside information about the rigged voting machines.

26 posted on 01/13/2013 5:16:39 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (TYRANNY: When the people fear the politicians. LIBERTY: When the politicians fear the people.)
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27 posted on 01/13/2013 5:25:55 PM PST by RedMDer (Those that believe in gun free zones should wear GUN FREE ZONE T-SHIRTS.)
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To: OKRA2012
If I were to bet on someone predicting which baseball prospects will be the best MLB players, who will win an election, or who will execute the best trading strategies or who will win the most money at poker, I will go with Nate Silver.

Again with this poker rubbish. The guy has never even cashed in a significant tournament in his entire life.

Are you Silver's publicist or something? I see you just joined less than two months ago, which is more than a little suspicious to me, considering how long F.R. has been around.

28 posted on 01/13/2013 5:30:48 PM PST by jpl (The government spent another half a million bucks in the time it just took you to read this tagline.)
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To: OKRA2012
“If I were to bet on someone predicting...”

Exactly my point. You are likely very savvy, and therefore do not bet on the basis of someone else’s predictions, recognizing that they are making calculated guesses - and that even the best calculated guesses have significant margins of error. There are a ton of people in the world who have much, much more statistical expertise than those like Nate Silver, or any of the other lay press personalities. Further, many of these people have access to computing power beyond what most, if not all of us have ever had access to, but they are not routinely wagering themselves to riches on the basis of their mathematical powers of prediction. There's a lot of variability in the world, and that's wonderful.

That said, I will make a prediction, in part based on the inherent variability, uniqueness, and need for individuality of each human being - that every human experiment based on the Marxist model, or variation thereof, will eventually fail, and that all who cavort as intellectually superior because they espouse such models will be proved wrong by history.

29 posted on 01/13/2013 5:43:28 PM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: SkyPilot

My son told me the coach was not complaining about the timeout. Rather, he was miffed that Bryant got a “practice” kick. Who knows?
It would take some serious gall to complain about a TO to the same ref you got one from.
But, too bad, too sad for the Seahawks.


30 posted on 01/13/2013 5:44:49 PM PST by BIV (typical white person)
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To: BIV

Pete should go back to B.C.....Always thought he was the definition of the “Peter Principle”. That was a really dumb call by the same token the Atlanta coach having 12 guys on the field in the last minute of the game was equally as stupid.


31 posted on 01/13/2013 6:06:34 PM PST by acapesket
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To: pieceofthepuzzle
Well, if he’s such a wizard, and his predictions are so golden, I guess you and the rest of us can just quit working and make an outstanding living just betting his predictions, right?

There was money to be made on Intrade (not any more :-( )

32 posted on 01/13/2013 6:26:53 PM PST by Mr. Know It All
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Typical Silver. The guy is a hack.


33 posted on 01/13/2013 6:50:41 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

More proof that Silver doesn’t know what he is doing and just got lucky.


34 posted on 01/13/2013 7:45:32 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: All

He predicted a rigged election - BFD


35 posted on 01/13/2013 8:08:53 PM PST by Rodney Dangerfield ("Don't ya just hate waiting in line at the Post Office? - Just wait until ObamaCare is implemented.")
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