Skip to comments.New Jobless Claims: Outliers, Volatility, Incompetence and Incentives
Posted on 11/18/2012 6:50:51 AM PST by Kaslin
The United States would appear to have entered a new trend for new jobless claims, one characterized by outliers and volatility. Our chart below showing the residual distribution of the number of new jobless claims filed each week shows just how far off from normal things have become since 22 September 2012, which we're marking as the end of the previous trend.
In fact, the data is so volatile right now that we're not able to accurately determine what the real trend in new jobless claims might be. For that, we'll need anywhere from six to ten non-outlier data points, where at present, we only have five (or four, if we discount the first data point marking the shift from the previous trend).
The newest and most extreme outlier is an outcome of the economic disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy. Here, we note that it may be some time before the data settles down enough to reveal its current trend. At present, we're showing a flat trend for the data points that aren't attributable to special causes, but this is a temporary choice on our part to provide a reference from which we can determine the magnitude of the outliers in the data.
What's particularly upsetting is that the two of the outlying points are man-made, the result of the state of California's Employment Development Department's failure to process tens of thousands of new claims filed in the first week of October 2012. That failure then produced an outlier in the opposite direction in the following week, as the state played catch up.
No disciplinary action related to the mishandling of these unemployment insurance claims in California's Employment Development Department has yet been taken.
Those problems are deep and ongoing. The California State Auditor, Elaine M. Howle, issued a report on 13 November 2012 finding that the California Employment Development Department's management of the state's unemployment program still does not meet acceptable performance levels related to core benefits measures, such as the timely processing of unemployment insurance claims.
In addition, California's state auditor found that the agency has failed to implement a number of reforms it specified following a 2010 audit of the agency, but interestingly, noted that the agency made a unique effort to achieve one of them - the one that allowed it to receive $839 million in economic stimulus funds in return for establishing an "alternate base period" for determining benefit eligibility for jobless claim filers, which it put on the fast track and received in July 2011.
So apparently, if you want to get California's Employment Development Department to achieve a goal, such as the timely processing and reporting of initial unemployment insurance claims, one needs to dangle a check with a lot of zeroes on it in front of the state agency's management to provide a sufficient incentive for them to do so.
Throw out the junk and read the news.... it is going up.
Exactly right, and BIG TIME!
So far I’ve been able to document 91,296 people laid off since the election.
During the first term O’ failed miserably, sorry facts do not lie. All of the positions he supports & supported have not yielded positive results. Federal budget, when in the history of the U.S.A has a President not had a Budget? Yes, there have been cases where budgets were signed later than the October deadline, but they have been signed into law. The budgets sent by O’ have been voted down by his own party. This whole notion perpetrated by the LSM that Congress (particularly the Republicans) are a do nothing Congress is beyond reproach. I will also point out the fact that up through January of 2011, the Democrats had majority control over both the House & Senate and yet the only notable piece of legislation was O’care which no Republican voted YAY (even some Democrats had to be “convinced” to vote “YAY”). O’care was not written to provide affordable health care for anyone, if this was the case then why are there fines involved? For many years I did not have health insurance, I shopped for healthcare just like shopping for any other service. This misconceived belief that everyone needs health insurance is downright false. What O’care does is mandate that each person (unless exempted...? Muslims?) purchase health insurance, health is not indicative of healthcare! Increased EPA regulations are strangling power companies from generating electricity. Green energy initiatives have failed miserably, again money down the drain. Jobs, claims that 5 million jobs were created since O’ took office, fine & dandy.... but when 1.5 million folks a month are applying for first time UI benefits, well....quick math lesson. Lets divide 5 million jobs by the number of months (benefit of doubt) we will say 45 months equals approx 111,111 jobs per month. Not any where close to enough jobs created. Economy, by removing food & fuel from CPI, the economy looks pretty darn good (ok, not really). The media wants everyone to believe the economy is growing, sorry folks, in realville, the economy is in total shambles. How many times during a 4 year term has quantitative easing occurred? When in the history of our country has the borrowing credit rating been reduced?
And when he fails in his second term, will he be asking for a third term, or demand it? I would not be surprised if he does.