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Doctor Shortage Could Cause Health Care Crash
ABC News ^ | November 13, 2012 | Nisha Nathan

Posted on 11/15/2012 12:55:40 AM PST by CutePuppy

The United States will require at least 52,000 more family doctors in the year 2025 to keep up with the growing and increasingly older U.S. population, a new study found.

The predictions also reflect the passage of the Affordable Care Act — a change that will expand health insurance coverage to an additional 38 million Americans.

"The health care consumer that values the relationship with a personal physician, particularly in areas already struggling with access to primary care physicians should be aware of potential access challenges that they may face in the future if the production of primary care physicians does not increase," said Dr. Andrew Bazemore, director of the Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Primary Care and co-author of the study published Monday in the Annals of Family Medicine.

Stephen Petterson, senior health policy researcher at the Robert Graham Center, said the government should take steps — and quickly — to address the problem before it gets out of hand.

"There needs to be more primary care incentive programs that give a bonus to physicians who treat Medicaid patients in effort to reduce the compensation gap between specialists and primary care physicians," said Petterson, who co-authored the study with Bazemore.

< snip >

Green added that he believes this is because currently primary care specialties are not well paid, well treated or respected as compared to subspecialists.

< snip >

Perhaps the best known example of this approach has been Massachusetts, which since 2006 has mandated that every resident obtain health insurance and those that are below the federal poverty level gain free access to health care. But although the state has the second-highest ratio of primary care physicians to population of any state, they are struggling with access to primary care physicians.

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: health; healthcare; medicine; obamacare
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-72 next last
As if health care in the U.S. didn't have enough problems... here comes ObamaCare.

RomneyCare in MA already shows the strain of access to healthcare. 'Tis the future of ObamaCare or single-payer (government-paid) "planned economy" of health care.

Some doctors already understand what's coming: "Coverage" and "access" are not the same thing, when it takes months or a year to see primary care physician.

But the people of MA wanted it, and Romney said it was good for MA. They were told about the "coverage" part, nobody told them about the "access" part, which is basically rationing of health care and hits mostly those who can least afford to pay?

1 posted on 11/15/2012 12:55:51 AM PST by CutePuppy
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To: CutePuppy

Liberals must think money and doctors grow magically from trees.


2 posted on 11/15/2012 12:57:13 AM PST by ari-freedom (It's the bennies, stupid.)
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To: CutePuppy

I say, Good. Dying in the gutter, whether from a brick to the head, from war in Syria, from a Muslim dirty bomb, from hyperinflation and empty stores, from the disappearance of doctors—in other words, all the things the Obama voters voted for—is the only way morons who vote for Democrats will wake up.


3 posted on 11/15/2012 1:05:12 AM PST by Arthur McGowan (If you're for sticking scissors in a baby girl's neck and sucking out her brains, you are PRO-WOMAN!)
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To: ari-freedom

And reality ??? That’s an inconvenience. . . .Fast forward to 2015, and Obamacare in place. . . .and Doctors are disappearing faster than fried chicken at an Obamaphone convention. . .


4 posted on 11/15/2012 1:07:14 AM PST by Salgak (Acme Lasers presents: The Energizer Border. I **DARE** you to cross it. . . .)
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To: CutePuppy

“Doctor Shortage Could Cause Health Care Crash”

of course it will.

(doctors won’t stay in the US to get taxed to the hilt... making no money... instead going go overseas for 6 months out of the year)

next question


5 posted on 11/15/2012 1:10:54 AM PST by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: CutePuppy

Just watch all the minority doctors that quickly get minted in the next several years . . . .


6 posted on 11/15/2012 1:22:46 AM PST by Bertha Fanation
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To: sten; Salgak; Arthur McGowan; ari-freedom
You guys make it so simple.

The issue has got to be much more complicated than this, or it wouldn't require more than 2,000 pages of the bill and having to "pass it to know what's in it."

Is it possible that the smartest people on the planet (Obama, Pelosi and Reid and the "world's greatest deliberative body" didn't really "solve" all the health care problems?

7 posted on 11/15/2012 1:28:45 AM PST by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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To: Salgak

This ER doctor is looking at international opportunities...


8 posted on 11/15/2012 1:35:12 AM PST by Kozak (The Republic is dead. I do not owe what we have any loyalty, wealth or sympathy.)
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To: Bertha Fanation

Gonna have to be honorary Doctors because medical schools can’t crank em out that fast...


9 posted on 11/15/2012 1:36:40 AM PST by Kozak (The Republic is dead. I do not owe what we have any loyalty, wealth or sympathy.)
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To: Bertha Fanation
Just watch all the minority doctors that quickly get minted in the next several years . . . .

That's already printed in ObamaCare's many pages: new doctors will be trained in their native language(s).

Didn't you read that? :-/

10 posted on 11/15/2012 1:44:57 AM PST by Does so (Dims don't think ... they PLOT!)
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To: CutePuppy
I'm trying to recall a Clintoon policy which CLOSED MEDICAL Schools... and I expected this shortage!

Anybody else remember that, or was it a dream?

11 posted on 11/15/2012 1:47:16 AM PST by WVKayaker ("Mitt Romney couldn't keep up with lies and spin of Barack Obama" - Sarah Palin 10/24)
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To: CutePuppy

Uh... let’s see... work my arse off as an undergrad to get into a good medical school... work my arse off in med school to get an internship... work my arse off as an intern so I can get a residency... work my arse off as a resident so I can spend the rest of my life being dictated to by some government commissar about what I can and can’t do, what I can and can’t charge...?

Uh... nah, don’t think so!

Thanks to socialized medicine, there will be far fewer doctors in future, and an explosion of patients getting in on all that subsidized healthcare.

Good luck getting in the door of any hospital in America with an urgent problem.

Healthcare in the US id officially f*cked.


12 posted on 11/15/2012 1:59:18 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: CutePuppy

Entirely possible. Indeed, Probable. They appear to actually think you can change just one thing, and nothing else will change. Static analysis in the extreme. . .

Just goes to show, none have any practical, real-world experience. . .


13 posted on 11/15/2012 2:01:11 AM PST by Salgak (Acme Lasers presents: The Energizer Border. I **DARE** you to cross it. . . .)
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To: CutePuppy

Entirely possible. Indeed, Probable. They appear to actually think you can change just one thing, and nothing else will change. Static analysis in the extreme. . .

Just goes to show, none have any practical, real-world experience. . .


14 posted on 11/15/2012 2:01:33 AM PST by Salgak (Acme Lasers presents: The Energizer Border. I **DARE** you to cross it. . . .)
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To: Kozak
It all depends on "which" kind of doctor you want to see .....


15 posted on 11/15/2012 2:11:20 AM PST by shibumi (Cover it with gas and set it on fire.)
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To: Kozak

Yup....only so many spots at so many med schools and it’s a loooong haul to the end.

I’m wondering if we will see a push to use nurse practioners in an expanded role.


16 posted on 11/15/2012 2:14:11 AM PST by SoftballMominVA
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To: CutePuppy

Doctors will be replaced by computers. You enter your symptoms and the computer spits out a prescription.


17 posted on 11/15/2012 2:18:29 AM PST by Fresh Wind (Cut the cable today!)
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To: CutePuppy

Oh! Now the media tells us!


18 posted on 11/15/2012 2:21:30 AM PST by Incorrigible (If I lead, follow me; If I pause, push me; If I retreat, kill me.)
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To: Arthur McGowan

No matter how onerous health care rationing becomes for the majority, the Democrat elites will have the best. No doubt even today in Boston under Romneycare if Elizabeth Warren, Patrick Duval, John Kerry, the royal Kennedys, or even Mitt himself can get same day service with a primary care physician while the average senior waits months for an appointment.

Now that the federal government has rejected the free market it will have to ration services by some mechanism. Expect most life enhancing and prolonging services to be denied to the average citizen over age 75. Expect to see seniors die everday due to delayed receipt of essential services. Consultation with a real MD will become rare for the average citizen who will depend on nurse practitioners, PA’s, and self treatment.

There will also be government regulations regarding priority of treatment in understaffed emergency rooms. When a white 65 year old female citizen insured by Medicare and suffering from a massive heart attack arrives in the emergency room at the same time as a 22 year uninsured male non English speaking undocumented gang member with a gunshot wound, who do you think will be treated first if there is only one MD available? Likely there will be a government regulations defining priority based on age, sex, and race.

One question is how will the elites be identified as having priority for service? When the 75 year non celebrity white Democrat Harvard professor emeritus, former undersecretary of state and frequent contributor to the NY Times editorial page lands in a Richmond, VA urban hospital one evening after suffering a heart attack at a conference, how will the hospital know to give him priority over the 12 year old minority gunshot victim? Will he have a special chip embedded in his arm or will there be a special notation on his Medicare card? Perhaps this is the real reason for the requirement all medical records are being digitized and linked in national databases. As soon as his record pops up, the ER staff sees a special flag that tells them to focus all of their efforts on saving the VIP.

Even more important, if you are a member of the elite class, is how your case is prioritized by the medical community when you need care at the same time as another VIP. For example will Warren Buffett have priority over a retired Leon Panetta or will senior government service triumph over private sector wealth when the best surgeon can only handle one person at a time? Will Jessie Jackson have priority over Hillary Clinton due to his race or will Hillary’s sex and government service give her higher standing? Some government bureaucrat is going to have to write the rules to guide the caregivers because decisions like these are too important to delegate to the health care providers on the front line.

Imagine the rules for allocating organs or medicine when there is a shortage. Will access to the best brain surgeon in the US be limited to the elites only or will there be guidelines allowing her to handle a few cases of medical interest involving average citizens? Perhaps the Secretary of HHS will maintain the appointment books of the top surgeons, oncologists, and medical specialists in the nation.

My point is that health care rationing will necessarily result in the institutionalization of status and privilege defined by political leaders. Not unlike the royalty of Europe assigning titles to the upper crust of society. Perhaps the simplest thing is for us to acknowledge openly the concept of individual equality is now dead and move forward by having the government assign titles of rank to each citizen. The current administration might designate conservative average citizens in flyover country as “untouchable” to the applause of the media and academia.


19 posted on 11/15/2012 2:30:44 AM PST by Soul of the South
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To: shibumi

Wonderful photo! He looks right at home.


20 posted on 11/15/2012 2:35:29 AM PST by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Bertha Fanation

I would think the best choice is to hustle up doctors from Cuba (they produce statistically more doctors than any nation on the face of the Earth). We develop friendly relations with those Cuba folks...which ought to be a priority with the Obama administration, and makes all the Latinos happy in the end.


21 posted on 11/15/2012 2:41:51 AM PST by pepsionice
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To: CutePuppy

This is all very logical from the Dem Ideologue’s point of view.

1. There are too many people on Gaia, (Earth), using up the resources.
2. American are the most resource abusing people.
3. We must stop them from using to many resources for Gaia’s sake.

Solution: Make as many of them die as possible.
2nd Solution: Make the method a law and the Sheeple will follow it especially if it takes years to do so.

Problem: If we do it overtly they Sheeple will fight back and stop us from achieving our goals.

And now we have Obamacare, Gaia will be saved.


22 posted on 11/15/2012 2:46:06 AM PST by The Working Man
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To: CutePuppy
"Coverage" and "access" are not the same thing, when it takes months or a year to see primary care physician.

That's exactly right. "Health care reform" -- whether in Massachusetts through Romneycare or in the U.S. under Obamacare -- was never about providing more health care to people. It was about forcing people to buy insurance whether they wanted to or not. That's why the insurance industry basically wrote Obamacare ... because a system where coverage is mandated while access is limited is an insurance company's dream.

23 posted on 11/15/2012 3:08:42 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("I am the master of my fate ... I am the captain of my soul.")
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To: CutePuppy

My GP says he’ll retire in the next year and he’s only in his mid-50’s. As far as doctor crunch...already here in our area due to much older population (I’m assuming.) Takes me 6 weeks to get an appt. with my GP. If it’s something that is urgent, you either take an appt. with the Nurse Practitioner or go to the walk-in.

Took me 6 months to get an appt. with a neurologist who specializes in my disease (he was specialist who was based at the University.) Now he headed for the hills, resigned and took a job with a big name pharmaceutical.

And the most recent doctor shortage (in neurologists and other health care providers) in our area comes from a large health care conglomerate that can’t come to an agreement with our insurance company (United). This health care conglomerate has several hospitals and a large portion of doctors in their organization (about 70% of neurologists in our area, it is estimated they include 34% of all health care facilities and providers.) So if they (the insurance and the health care conglomerate don’t come to an agreement within a couple weeks...it’s going to be bad news for lots of patients.) Crunch time at other hospitals and providers that will accept the plan.


24 posted on 11/15/2012 3:22:51 AM PST by memyselfandi59
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To: The Working Man

Kill off the old white people that vote Republican so the young brown people that vote Democrat can survive til the next election.


25 posted on 11/15/2012 3:26:34 AM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: Bertha Fanation

26 posted on 11/15/2012 3:32:27 AM PST by machman
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To: Soul of the South

Nice Op-Ed. I’d like to pass it on if you will.


27 posted on 11/15/2012 3:42:07 AM PST by poobear (Socialism, in the minds of the elites, is a con-game for the serfs, nothing more.)
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To: Jack Hammer
Uh... let's see... work my arse off as an undergrad to get into a good medical school... work my arse off in med school to get an internship... work my arse off as an intern so I can get a residency... work my arse off as a resident so I can spend the rest of my life being dictated to by some government commissar about what I can and can't do, what I can and can't charge...?

You forgot to add the debt, accumulated as you "work your arse off."

Thanks to socialized medicine, there will be far fewer doctors in future, and an explosion of patients getting in on all that subsidized healthcare.

You mean, as in higher demand and lower supply? What do they call it in economics?

Healthcare in the US id officially f*cked.

I think that's the idea and the correct answer to the above question.

28 posted on 11/15/2012 3:55:15 AM PST by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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To: Fresh Wind

“Doctors will be replaced by computers. You enter your symptoms and the computer spits out a prescription.”

Actually, I trust that more than an Affirmative Action trained doctor. My sister diagnosed our mom’s deadly disease via Google after her A.A. doctor told her she was “just getting old” and sent her packing. Sister saved her life; doctor didn’t want to be bothered.


29 posted on 11/15/2012 3:56:54 AM PST by MayflowerMadam
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To: Fresh Wind
Doctors will be replaced by computers. You enter your symptoms and the computer spits out a prescription.

[IBM's] Watson is almost there. All we need is enough "dumb" terminals and we're all set for health care Utopia.

30 posted on 11/15/2012 4:04:11 AM PST by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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To: Salgak
"Just goes to show, none have any practical, real-world experience. . ."

OR it is working just as designed. It is not about heaqlthcare. It is about power and control. The country is moving toward the classic model of a ruling party elite who will have immediate access to the best health care and the rest of the fine life and a downtrodden mass of serfs who will wait in long lines and must conform to every diktat of the Regime or be consigned to even less care and a path to gradual death.

31 posted on 11/15/2012 4:07:24 AM PST by Truth29
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To: CutePuppy

“solve”???

you mean the system we have, doctors, medicine, and hospitals... costs too much... so the solution is... to add 1m federal employees to oversee aforementioned system??

LOL

NO ONE actually believes it’ll get cheaper. NO ONE.

meanwhile, not a single political type has suggested... even once... to promote education / creation of more medical types

econ101: price too high? increase supply


32 posted on 11/15/2012 4:11:34 AM PST by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: CutePuppy
MY guess is they will follow the Soviet Model.

* Build many hospitals or urban outreach buildings. They will be filthy, just like in Mother Russia.
* Staff with poorly trained doctors or physicians assistants or some new title they invent.

We are FUBAR'd....

33 posted on 11/15/2012 4:14:24 AM PST by taildragger (( Tighten the 5 point harness and brace for Impact Freepers, ya know it's coming..... ))
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To: CutePuppy

The key to “selling” socialized care is the allure of “universal coverage”..... Meaning everybody has a “ health care policy” into which they pay monthly.

Basically another Social Security and Medicare style payroll deduction is considered ideal by the fascists/proto-fascists that now run this country.

The “key” to making it all work however, is having NO access to the system....which is best accomplished by having NO primary care docs.
This is only means by which the monthly payroll deduction can be retained for the play and use of the fascists. They consider the actual health care of those from whom they take the money “a waste of a good opportunity”


34 posted on 11/15/2012 4:17:05 AM PST by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: WVKayaker
"I'm trying to recall a Clintoon policy which CLOSED MEDICAL Schools... and I expected this shortage!

Anybody else remember that, or was it a dream?

About 20 years ago, there was an absolute cap placed on the number of Medicare-funded resident training positions in US hospitals. Since the number of residency positions was historically greater than the number of US medical school graduates, the difference was made up by foreign medical school graduates in the past. The number of US medical school graduates has been increasing since then, so the number of residency positions that are offered to foreign medical school graduates (and that are necessary to complete before the doctor can be licensed) is getting very small.

I think the statistic is that about 1/3 of US physicians are age 55 or above and so have already retired, are going to retire, are cutting back their hours, or at least aren't going to be expanding their practices.

I'm pretty sure that I've posted remarks about the physician supply problem since the Obamacare debate began (as have many others). Since it took 20 years for the gov't to create the problem, at best it would take them 20 years to undo the problem. (Think "Veterans Administration", "Post Office" and "FEMA"!)

But first, they must understand that there is a problem, which they don't. "Physician extenders" -- Nurse Practitioners and Physician's Assistants -- have been used for years, but the educational requirements are much less rigorous, and IMO the quality just isn't there.

My only advice is, "don't get sick". The only people who will do well under Obamacare are malpractice lawyers.

35 posted on 11/15/2012 4:20:35 AM PST by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: CutePuppy

I’ve already lost my doctor to the Obamacare rules. My doctor owned a chain of about a dozen clinics, and being a physician, he also practiced in one of his clinics. Obamacare says that a doctor cannot own and operate a hospital or healthcare facility and practice in that place. My doc had a choice, stop being a doctor or give up his business. He chose to stop practicing medicine and just manage his chain of clinics. I had to find another doctor and now I’ve lost out by having a doctor who I’ve only seen twice versus one I’ve known for the past twenty years.


36 posted on 11/15/2012 4:27:22 AM PST by BuffaloJack (Children, pets, and slaves get taken care of. Free Men take care of themselves.)
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To: Salgak

“Doctors are disappearing faster than fried chicken at an Obamaphone convention. . .”

I worked in the health care industry and they can’t get out fast enough.


37 posted on 11/15/2012 4:28:49 AM PST by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: SoftballMominVA
I’m wondering if we will see a push to use nurse practioners in an expanded role.

Didn't you read the bill?

"A major victory for nursing occurred with the designation of nurse-managed health clinics as eligible for federal funding in addition to a $50 million grant through the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Nurse-managed health clinics will help train more nurses in primary and preventive care while strengthening the nation's healthcare safety net. The nurse practitioners who staff nurse-managed health clinics are by far the nation's fastest growing segment of primary care providers. Offering cost-effective, high-quality care to patients regardless of their ability to pay, these clinics are perfectly positioned to fill the provider gap that has been well documented by the shortage of primary care physicians."

38 posted on 11/15/2012 4:34:15 AM PST by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown are by desperate appliance relieved or not at all.)
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To: Truth29

Obamacare was a poisoned pill from the beginning. It was designed to fail, a feature not a bug. In a couple of years the sheeple will beg for single payer, the ultimate socialist nirvana....


39 posted on 11/15/2012 4:36:18 AM PST by Kozak (The Republic is dead. I do not owe what we have any loyalty, wealth or sympathy.)
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To: CutePuppy

The solution to the non problem is obvious.

Low Pay for a docter in America is better than No Pay in India or the Philippines


40 posted on 11/15/2012 4:41:05 AM PST by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: Kozak

Medical schools? What medical schools?

Any of our illustrious investigative reporters check on enrollment lately?

No. The only few working today are stretched thin following Benghazi.

No one in their right mind would sign up for this.

100K per year to come out and deal with this at about 150K per year under Obamacare?

No takers.

We will have no doctors and no research and our pharmacuticals will be outdated


41 posted on 11/15/2012 4:45:28 AM PST by stanne
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To: CutePuppy
Gee! No foolin’? One of the doctors in my town has already announced his early retirement.
42 posted on 11/15/2012 4:50:16 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: SoftballMominVA
“I’m wondering if we will see a push to use nurse practioners in an expanded role.”

Of course, and it will go much further than that. We'll get to the point at which you'll be seeing people with 1 or 2 year degrees ‘treating’ patients. Then the media will spout ‘studies’ about how the treatment people are getting is actually as good or better than from physicians. You can bet, however, that politicians will still be seeing MDs.

43 posted on 11/15/2012 4:55:22 AM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: Fresh Wind

“Doctors will be replaced by computers. You enter your symptoms and the computer spits out a prescription.”

Way too much biological variability and way too many holes in what we understand to be able to approach medical care with a computer algorithm. Computers can be very helpful, but ultimately, it’s really a ‘fuzzy’ logic based discipline. That doesn’t mean they won’t try, but people will get hurt.


44 posted on 11/15/2012 5:01:32 AM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: MayflowerMadam
They will do like they did to the active duty military a few years back when most of the base hospitals went to a daytime, no emergency room operation.

We all received a really thick medical book that listed all the illnesses. You basically had to self diagnose yourself.

45 posted on 11/15/2012 5:28:26 AM PST by USAF80
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To: taildragger

Or they will be staffed by foreigners like all the hospitals in Saudi Arabia.

The VA hospitals are like that now. Lots of Russian physicians that can barely speak English.


46 posted on 11/15/2012 5:32:42 AM PST by USAF80
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To: Kozak
This ER doctor is looking at international opportunities...

I'm going to guess that tourist locations may be interested in US-trained doctors to take care of their visitors, and may provide life-style amenities in an effort to attract such.

47 posted on 11/15/2012 5:35:50 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
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To: Arthur McGowan
Wake up Americans over 60!

Aches and pains, moans and groans, taxation without representation and NOW having to watch the house salad who won reelection for the next four years?

I will prefer to close my eyes and drift away.

The Golden Years are a myth.

48 posted on 11/15/2012 5:35:50 AM PST by urbanpovertylawcenter (where the law and poverty collide in an urban setting and sparks fly)
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To: USAF80

“Good! It’s about time Americans had to live like the rest of the world!”
— 0bama’s thoughts on this


49 posted on 11/15/2012 5:38:31 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: PapaBear3625
"I'm going to guess that tourist locations may be interested in US-trained doctors to take care of their visitors, and may provide life-style amenities in an effort to attract such."

It also looks like so called Medical Tourism is a growth industry in countries such as India, Costa Rica, Panama, etc. If you can schedule your procedure and travel, you can go to one of these countries and get first world treatment at second world prices.

50 posted on 11/15/2012 5:39:26 AM PST by Truth29
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