About That Chart That Says There's A '100% Chance' Of A Recession...

Calculated Risk ^ | Bill McBride

[blam]

About That Chart That Says There's A '100% Chance' Of A Recession...

Calculated Risk
Bill McBride
uNov. 10, 2012, 11:36 AM

One of the most frequent questions I receive via email is: "Is another recession starting?" There are quite a few people who have been calling a recession recently (ECRI has called several recessions since August 2011 or so). They still have time on their most recent calls, but their earlier calls were wrong.

Part of the problem in forecasting right now is the sluggish recovery has ups and downs, and each down looks like the start of a recession to some models. Another problem is that negative news sells ... and there is an entire industry that sells doom and gloom. And that industry has expanded significantly in recent years ...

There is a recession probability chartfrom the St Louis Fed making the rounds today. The chart shows that the odds of a recession have increased recently (ht Bruce).

Here is the chart from FRED at the St Louis Fed: "This recession probabilities series from University of Oregon economist Jeremy Piger is a monthly measure of the probability of recession in the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model applied to 4 monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales."

(snip)

Of course I could be wrong, but currently I'm not even on recession watch!

(snip)

[The Sons of Liberty]

Now that the media has secured the commie four more years, they can now report the truth. And the truth is the we never came out of recession, but the regime told us we were. Now 0bama can complete his destruction of the economy.

[arthurus]

Is there's A '100% Chance' Of A Recession?

We are in the midst, or still in the beginning phases of a l-o-o-o-ng DEPRESSION quite similar to the iconic one of the 30s and 40s. That depression was a series of recessions and recoveries. The recoveries were hailed as the end of the depression. They weren't. That depression did not end until Ike eliminated a lot of business controls and we went back to something more like a free market economy. This one will probably include a major war at some point, perhaps soon.

[faithhopecharity]

Chance of a recession? Rather: chance Obama’s recession will continue at least another 4 years..... (say, 99.44% given his anti-business, anti-investing, anti-energy policies).

[faithhopecharity]

chance of a recession? RATHER: chance Obama’s recession will continue and get worse over the next 4 years (call it at about 99.44% with his anti-business, anti-investment, anti-energy, and anti-jobs policies... plus his higher-and-higher taxes, Obamacare, and oppressive regulations)

The public voted for this. They’ll keep getting it (in the posterior anatomy). Apparently they enjoy it, too (as long as they have their “free Obamaphones.”)

Go figure!

[tumblindice]

It should be fair to partly apocalyptic in Obamaland: fire, brimstone, gnashing of teeth & hairshirts--yeah, the whole nine yards.

[Right Wing Assault]

What does Ron Silver say??

[ProtectOurFreedom]

FDR’s inclination was to use central planning to produce armaments in WW II, but he eventually decided that decentralized free market capitalism was the best approach. He recruited “Big Bill” Knudsen, a Danish immigrant who had risen through the ranks of the auto industry to become president of General Motors. Knudsen’s free rein on industry led to enormous innovations and productivity gains which were instrumental in ending the depression after the war and the huge boom throughout the 50s.

[BfloGuy]

This one will probably include a major war at some point, perhaps soon.

You have to wonder about that. The libs and the Keynesians [same thing] still believe that WWII got us out of the Depression.

It didn't. You're right, of course. It took FDR's death and the long-awaited election of a Republican Congress that ended the New Deal programs to start the economy up again.

But Obama doesn't believe in the free market. There'll be a lot of pressure on him from the Dems to "jump start" the economy as the next election draws near. I wouldn't put a war [Iran? Hope it's not China] past him.