Here's The Real Reason Nate Silver's Perfect Election Call Was Such An Awesome Breakthrough

Business Insider ^ | Nov. 10, 2012 | Joe Weisenthal

[nathanbedford]

Obama was handily favored every single day of the race. The closest thing to a game changer (by far) was the early disastrous debate in early Ocrober. But at no point, did Romney's odds of winning hit 50%. And by the middle of October, Obama was back on the re-ascent. Sandy didn't change anything. The 47% tape didn't change anything. Benghazi didn't change anything. Paul Ryan's selection didn't change anything, and so forth. Romney didn't lose because of a glitch in his election day Get Out The Vote app, which is something a lot of folks are talking about right now.

[jwalsh07]

ps: NH is gone so the R’s will have to figure out a way to win Colorado or find a lefty Ross Perot to run. Barring that or a big ass war I don’t expect to see another republican POTUS in my lifetime. I am old though so the glass is still 1/32 full.

[major-pelham]

All you need is excel with a monte carlo plug-in
http://www3.wabash.edu/econometrics/EconometricsBook/Basic%20Tools/ExcelAddIns/MCSim.htm

[nathanbedford]

Jack, I have been remiss in not publicly complimenting you on the accuracy and professionalism of your posts throughout the campaign. I also have a confession, I dismissed the implications of your findings not because I did not believe they were accurate but because I did not think they were predictive. In other words, I got stuck on what people like Morris and Barone were saying concerning the weighting of the polls etc. and that comported with my prejudices which were the effect that people thought the way I thought and would not suffer their country to be destroyed before their eyes, much less destroy it by their own hands.

One of the reasons why I posted this article about Nate Silver is to demonstrate how treacherous it is for one to ignore people like you and believe our own worldview, which is precisely what I did.

There is a lesson to be learned. Before we decide in which direction to go to win the next election and save the country (assuming there is something left to be saved and something of liberty too), convinced of our virtue, demanding that we turn right, insisting that the election was stolen, blaming the candidate, even blaming the weather, we should turn to people like you and get some hard data and we should interpret that data as dispassionately as human nature will permit.

I do not assume that is easy, Michael Barone got it wrong, but there is no other way.

[goodnesswins]

YEP....as much as Newt has flaws...he IS a FIGHTER...

[major-pelham]

Granite State isn’t gone but it sure is prone to wipeouts now - both ways. All this talk about appealing to the 47% and latinos or minorities isn’t the answer either - we don’t have enough of either to make a hill of beans. I do think going over the fiscal cliff and letting the tax cuts expire etc. is a start. If people are paying taxes and working and have a stake in the success of the economy these fluffy issues like women’s health and gay marriage won’t stack up to bread and butter issues. The Bush tax cuts gave too many people an opportunity to be fly speck issue voters.

[henkster]

Romney lost because he never had a chance. And Santorum, Gingrich, Reagan or George Washington would have lost, too. The takers outnumber the makers, the democrats will steal what they cannot win legitimately, the education system produced a mass of stupid selfish sheep, the media covers up the fraud, attacks the conservative, and brainwashes the sheep.

This combination has now been perfected and is unbreakable. It was a nice Republic while it lasted.

[who_would_fardels_bear]

"Messaging is a major problem, too."

Because of the Citizens United decisions private citizens have great latitude in spending money to advocate for political change.

Every day and night the MSM gives free advertising to the Democrat Party. That message is only countered right before an election. The message is sent in an endless stream of annoying anti-Democrat commercials (or worse anti-Republican commercials during the primaries) that people quickly turn away from. Also the message is now sent days, and sometimes weeks, after millions have already voted early.

If we really want to change hearts and minds, maybe groups should spend money throughout the months and years between elections. The message should be a generally upbeat one comparing the relative economic success of states like Texas versus states like California. Lots of facts laced in with a little philosophy.

If the MSM is going to consistently lie for the Democrats, it seems to make more sense to send out a consistent and countervailing message of truths in favor of conservatism, rather than a last minute data dump of vitriol and anger.

[Utmost Certainty]

Eh, this seems like small-thinking.

If Conservatives were serious about getting the message out, they’d start proactively thinking up and exploring ways to decentralize TV/telecommunications/others and the FCC, in order to bust up the media conglomerate cartels and give the American people real media choices.

[gusopol3]

So, how does the turn out model work on election night when <120 m votes have been counted , if it’s based on “2008 model” when 130 m votes were cast? I understand how it can predict 100% Obama vote in certain Cleveland or Philadelphia precincts, but how does it predict St. Lucie county 140% turnout?

[Magic Fingers]

“I think he should have picked Rubio for Veep, more appeal to the un-silent minority of youth and Latinos.”

Many hereon squealed like stuck pigs at the mere mention of the idea.

[MarDav]

We lost because:

A) the Leftist/Socialist apparatus in America controls messaging

B) our institutions have been redefined and corrupted by the Leftist/Socialist messaging apparatus, undermining their moral authority

C) as a result of the loss of moral authority of our institutions, the American citizenry has ceased to be American in thinking. Many are no longer independent, self-reliant, liberty-embracing. They have become dependent, averse to personal responsibility, willing to trade freedom for security

D) the Republican Party has sacrificed its soul by adjusting to the change in the playing field created by A, B, and C.

[Sivad]

Yep. Part of the program needs to be to shoot down their
rising stars like Coumo, Booker, and Van Holland(?)....
...a homo for Coumo......a hooker for Booker .....and something
that rhymes with Van Holland. Of course there needs to be
a twist to these scandals because they are considered resume en-
hancers in Ratworld.

[jackmercer]

To be honest, I was furious with so many people like Morris, drudge, Rasmussen, Barone etc but finally with a week or 2 to go, let it all go as it was too late.

Had the campaign and activists like many at FR realized that the Romney momentum was a mirage or that demographics were against from the very beginning back in the spring, the GOTV operations and the base activists would have been working lie bees on Meth to get this election.

But everyone had their blinders on but really, who can blame them. They had so-called professional pundits like Morris, Barone and half of Fox telling them all is well, Romney has it in the bag with the first debate momentum.

When I finally got the balls to post my predictions based on my own view of the 2010 census and the equation I put together, I got kicked in the b**ls by a ton of freepers and I knew I would. I admit my cowardice but I’ve posted things that went against the conventional, conservative memes before and being the pariah in a place you find solace and like-minded views really sucks.

[dforest]

Yours is the only comment associated with this thread that makes sense. Won’t matter what we do, we are going to lose every time.

It means America is no longer America.

[dforest]

Newt would not have won either.

[nathanbedford]

If you ever come up with a program for the stock market I would be grateful it you would let me be among the first to know. :-)

[garbanzo]

I’ve said this before but it bears repeating, Romney was probably the best possible candidate the GOP could run and the campaign was by conventional wisdom run as well as it could be run. It just fell short. Campaign finance rules made it hard for Romney to go after Obama in the summer because all the money was spent winning the primaries. Romney promised fishing poles, Obama gave away fish. The GOP has cruised on the idea that Democrats won’t turn out on Election Day. They were sorely wrong. Likely voters and registered voters are becoming the same category and the GOP isn’t winning that category.

[jackmercer]

I think the real damning thing is the GOP GOTV incompetence. Do some google searches on the Obama campaign GOTV methods. They had people by the thousands at malls, outside movie theaters, along strip malls, college campuses, parks, etc etc in not just swing states but very targeted swing counties registering people to vote and persuading them with whatever liberal BS they had in their GOTV manuals.

On top of that, they had massive databases of people in specific neighborhoods and counties that never voted before. They didn’t just reinforce their base and try to persuade independents, they CREATED new voters by comparing registration rolls to other databases of eligible but non-registered citizens, getting them on the phone or knocking on their door, quickly analyzing what issue is most important to that person, checking their manual and immediately spouting the talking point that would appeal to that issue....bam, another new dem voter.

Rest assured, liberal policies and issues did not win this election IMO since policy elections are usually wave elections like the 2010 rejection of obamacare. This was a get out the vote election plain and simple and their design and machine put Romney’s outfit to shame.

[jackmercer]

Haha being an armchair analyst is one thing, using real money is a different animal. That’s a pond I wouldn’t dare jump in. If I did have more money than I knew what to do with, I’d sure be shorting gold right now out to 18 months if possible.

[Tau Food]

I think the real damning thing is the GOP GOTV incompetence.

Romney ran as the super-manager who knew how to get things done.

From his convention to his ground game, his whole general election campaign was mismanaged.