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Outsiders canít inflict changes in regime
The Pioneer ^ | Friday, November 9, 2012 | G. Parthasarathy

Posted on 11/09/2012 7:57:46 PM PST by Jyotishi

The Bashar al-Assad rule in Syria has come under heavy fire from people who believe that the regime must quit over its atrocities. But any attempt by the US-led West to impose a replacement will backfire soon

India’s oil-rich western neighbourhood, extending from the Arabian Sea to the Bosporus, is engulfed in conflicts arising from sectarian and civilisational rivalries, aggravated by the meddling of external powers. With an arsenal of over 100 nuclear weapons, Pakistan is today witnessing a period of internal strife, largely arising from the pernicious role of its military establishment and tensions across its disputed borders with Afghanistan. This conflict, involving radical groups like the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, is engulfing Central Asia. Iran is now involved in multiple conflicts, arising from its regional ambitions and its controversial nuclear programme.

Iran has added to its woes by intemperate rhetoric about “wiping out Israel from the map”. Its Sunni Arab neighbours allege Iran is inciting restive Shia populations in Eastern Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen and Kuwait. Further westwards, Iranian support for the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Moslem Brotherhood in Gaza and the embattled Alawite (Shia) minority regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, has led to regional and global rivalries, exacerbating existing tensions.

Tensions in relations with Israel and the US have resulted in Iran facing growing international sanctions and American and Israeli efforts to cripple its nuclear weapons programme, by targeting its nuclear scientists. Cyber attacks with ‘Flame’ and ‘Stuxnet’ viruses have stolen Iran’s nuclear data and crippled its enrichment programme for months. Azerbaijan, India and Thailand have been drawn into this rivalry, by Iranian-sponsored attacks on Israeli establishments and tourists on their soil. Iran is also believed to have mounted retaliatory cyber attacks on American banks and financial institutions, Natural Gas production facilities in Qatar and on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil company. Israel and the US are being warned that any attack on Iran’s nuclear installations, would engulf the entire region in flames.

The much touted ‘Arab Spring’, which many believed would lead to a new era of democracy, peace and progress in the Arab world, has only exacerbated tensions and uncertainties across the region. Ruled for decades by despots and dictators, the region is now witnessing momentous changes. In Libya, where the despotic regime of Muammar Gaddafi was removed by Nato military intervention spearheaded by France, Britain and the US, large tracts of the country are under the control of Al Qaeda-linked Islamist militias. The Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots are expanding their influence in countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and the Palestinian Gaza strip. Syria, now ruled by an Iranian-backed minority Alawite Shia sect that comprises barely 12 per cent of the population, is engulfed in a bloody civil war which pits the bulk of its 70 per cent Sunni majority against the secularly oriented regime of Mr Assad.

The Syrian civil war has led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people and an exodus of thousands of refugees to neighbouring Turkey and Jordan. It has also led to a deadlock in the UN Security Council, where Russia and China have resolutely blocked any attempt by the West to get a resolution passed that would sanctify a Libyan-style Nato intervention. Veteran Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi is trying to fashion a ceasefire as a prelude to negotiations between the warring parties in Syria. Led by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, the Arab League has favoured intervention and regime change in Syria. Now ruled by an Islamist dispensation, secular Turkey, which has been denied entry into the Christian-dominated European Union, is attempting to become major player in the region, by downgrading ties with Israel and embracing the cause of the Hamas in Gaza.

The United States and Israel favour the ouster of the Iranian- backed Assad regime, as that would undermine the influence of Iran and the Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is the only Arab militia to challenge the might of Israel’s armed forces. The assassination of anti-Hezbollah Lebanese intelligence chief Wissam al-Hassan in Beirut could revive the sectarian conflict that tore Lebanon apart in the past. Most Lebanese appear to hold Syria responsible for the assassination. A new major player in these developments is the ruler of the Emirate of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa, who holds 14 per cent of the world’s gas resources and hosts the Forward Headquarters of the American Central Command and its Combined Operations Centre, apart from owning the worldwide Al Jazeera channel, now broadcasting anti-Assad programmes. Sheikh Khalifa took active part in the Nato-led ouster of Muammar Gaddafi and was the first Arab ruler to recognise the Libyan National Council. He is spearheading the Arab opposition to President Assad. He has visited Gaza and doled out $400 million to the Hamas leadership, to counter Iranian influence.

The US, its Nato allies and Israel would like to weaken Iran’s regional influence by the overthrow of the Syrian regime and the consequent isolation of Hezbollah, in neighbouring Lebanon. Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are key allies in this effort. But, both the US and Israel, are wary of arming the fractious Syrian Opposition,  fearing that an Islamist takeover in Syria could produce another haven for the Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood, akin to what transpired in Libya and elsewhere in the aftermath of the ‘Arab Spring’. The Israeli bombing of a suspected Iranian missile facility in Sudan is yet another manifestation of tensions in the region. Growing regional and external rivalries are increasingly destabilising India’s western neighbourhood.

India has reacted maturely and moderately to these developments, with its response being clearly articulated by its Permanent Representative to the UN, Mr Hardeep Puri. India joined Brazil, China, Germany and Russia by abstaining on Security Council Resolution 1973 that led to the Nato military intervention in Libya. India made it clear that it has serious concerns about UN resolutions lacking “clarity on enforcement measures”, through military intervention. India backed a UN General Assembly Resolution supporting “efforts of the Arab League for a peaceful resolution of the Syrian crisis” through a “Syrian-led inclusive political process”.

It also supported a Security Council Resolution, vetoed by China and Russia, to facilitate the work of a UN supervision mission in Syria to monitor the “cessation of violence”. India, however, abstained on a Security Council Resolution backed by the Arab League which, in effect, demanded a regime change in Syria. The policy on such issues is to back any regional consensus to resolve differences, without getting involved in demands for externally promoted ‘regime change’.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Germany; News/Current Events; Russia; United Kingdom; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: afghanistan; alawites; algeria; aljazeera; alqaeda; arab; arableague; azerbaijan; bahrain; brazil; china; christians; egypt; france; gaza; germany; hamas; hezbollah; india; iran; iranisrael; israel; jordan; kuwait; lebanon; libya; maronites; muslimbrotherhood; nato; ntsa; pakistan; paultards; qatar; russia; saudiarabia; shiites; sunni; sunnis; syria; thailand; tunisia; turkey; unitedarabemirates; unitedkingdom; uzbekistan; waronterror; yemen

1 posted on 11/09/2012 7:57:56 PM PST by Jyotishi
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To: Jyotishi

Figured the title was about the Obama regime.


2 posted on 11/09/2012 7:59:39 PM PST by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

To: Gene Eric

I thought they were talking about the “United State.”


4 posted on 11/09/2012 8:02:27 PM PST by Luke21
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To: Gene Eric

LOL!!! That was my first thought as well.


5 posted on 11/09/2012 8:26:59 PM PST by Stayingawayfromthedarkside
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To: Stayingawayfromthedarkside

Of one thing I am certain. We need to continue to forge closer ties with India.
We lived there for several years and their experience in dealing with external and internal Muslim extremism is important. In the end..they are a messy democracy..like us and have a vast source of talented people who long for freedom of opportunity. Based on immigration and business..we actually have much more ties with India than China.


6 posted on 11/09/2012 8:43:56 PM PST by Oldexpat
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Jyotishi.
India/s oil-rich western neighbourhood, extending from the Arabian Sea to the Bosporus, is engulfed in conflicts arising from sectarian and civilisational rivalries, aggravated by the meddling of external powers. With an arsenal of over 100 nuclear weapons, Pakistan is today witnessing a period of internal strife, largely arising from the pernicious role of its military establishment and tensions across its disputed borders with Afghanistan. This conflict, involving radical groups like the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, is engulfing Central Asia. Iran is now involved in multiple conflicts, arising from its regional ambitions and its controversial nuclear programme.

Iran has added to its woes by intemperate rhetoric about "wiping out Israel from the map". Its Sunni Arab neighbours allege Iran is inciting restive Shia populations in Eastern Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen and Kuwait. Further westwards, Iranian support for the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Moslem Brotherhood in Gaza and the embattled Alawite (Shia) minority regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, has led to regional and global rivalries, exacerbating existing tensions.

Tensions in relations with Israel and the US have resulted in Iran facing growing international sanctions and American and Israeli efforts to cripple its nuclear weapons programme, by targeting its nuclear scientists. Cyber attacks with 'Flame/ and 'Stuxnet/ viruses have stolen Iran/s nuclear data and crippled its enrichment programme for months. Azerbaijan, India and Thailand have been drawn into this rivalry, by Iranian-sponsored attacks on Israeli establishments and tourists on their soil. Iran is also believed to have mounted retaliatory cyber attacks on American banks and financial institutions, Natural Gas production facilities in Qatar and on Saudi Arabia/s Aramco oil company. Israel and the US are being warned that any attack on Iran/s nuclear installations, would engulf the entire region in flames.
It's getting closer:
[snip] If the Taliban / al-Qaeda authority links up with Iran (geographically), it'll be the beginning of the end of Saudi influence in Central Asia, and they know that too.

For that matter, if Iran's influence becomes dominant among the various rag-tag tribes without flags in the ethnic Pollock painting that is Afghanistan, Pakistan, and various other 'stans now in turmoil, I would look toward a major power shift when Ahmednutjob (if he's NOT bumped off by Israel) engineers a major rapprochement with India. It would be a huge coup for India, since its archenemy China has made a lot of inroads over the past thirty or more years, helping the Pakis with their Bomb, building Iran's communications infrastructure and working/training in its petroleum industry.

Russia would not care who runs the jihadist activity inside China, so out the Saudis would go.

India grows stronger as Pakistan disintegrates, and its only long-term worry is who controls the Paki atomic stockpile. India's excellent diplomatic relations and military connections with Israel continue to grow. Naturally that could be threatened the instant Iran and India share a rice buffet and sign trade and military cooperation agreements. Among those agreements would be arrangements to secretly cooperate in the dismantling of Pakistan, and continued fragmentation of the rest of Central Asia. [/snip] [Netanyahu reaffirms Israel claim to parts of West Bank (#164) (2010)]

I also neglected to mention (thought about it, got distracted and forgot) the recent fly in the ointment, which consists of India's and China's joint repudiation of carbon caps and other nonsense at the Copenhagen conference. Israel has resold some US military technology to China in the past, and all things considered, they have more in common with each other than with the crazy Muzzie despotates and terrorist groups. It can't be hopeful to China that its former ally, Pakistan, is disintegrating. Pakistan represented one of the few successes China had in trying to break the Soviet policy of containment (analogous to US policy toward the USSR) of China, and rapprochement with India will probably be the big story, rather than an Iranian-Indian deal. [Netanyahu reaffirms Israel claim to parts of West Bank (#164) (2010)]

7 posted on 11/10/2012 5:14:05 AM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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