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Approximately 4 Million MORE votes for Romney than McCain (Vanity)
November 8, 2012 | Strategerist

Posted on 11/08/2012 8:26:30 PM PST by Strategerist

Based on CNN vote totals and estimated percentage of votes in by state (a number of states still have less than 90% votes counted), through spreadsheet analysis Romney will end up with approximately 64 million votes; McCain received approximately 60 million votes.

Of course, we can't know how the uncounted votes will turn out; my assumption is that it matches the relative percentages of the votes already counted in each state. I'd be pretty surprised if it ended up less than 3 million more votes for Romney than McCain.

Even adjusting McCain's total upward to reflect growth in the voting age population (based on US Census Data extrapolating the change from 2008 to 2010 to 2012 in voting age population), Romney received 1.5 million more votes, or 2.6% more votes.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: election; vanity; votes
Hopefully this puts a stake in the decaying carcass of the idiotic "missing votes" meme and people using that falsehood to grind their various axes of what true conservatives "stayed home."

Notably Norman Podhoretz has also noticed that the problem is simply votes not being counted yet.

1 posted on 11/08/2012 8:26:35 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

If there are that many votes not counted, how can we say who may have been the winner in close states?


2 posted on 11/08/2012 8:32:32 PM PST by gusopol3
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To: Strategerist
Thanks for this.

Professionals, people who claim to be experts on elections, were pushing this meme as well.

It will be interesting to see if the gap between the President's and Romney's vote totals narrows even further as well.

3 posted on 11/08/2012 8:33:08 PM PST by wideawake
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To: Strategerist

Where are you getting these numbers? CNN’s totals have Romney at 58 mllion.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=hp_t2


4 posted on 11/08/2012 8:34:14 PM PST by mnehring
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To: gusopol3

There aren’t any close states where the number of votes left to count could possibly change the result.

The worst offenders in uncounted votes are California, Washington, New Jersey, New York, etc.


5 posted on 11/08/2012 8:35:02 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: mnehring
Where are you getting these numbers? CNN’s totals have Romney at 58 mllion.

Sigh.

Try going back, reading, and understanding my post; you completely missed its entire point.

I'm in complete despair at getting people to understand basic math.

6 posted on 11/08/2012 8:36:56 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

I’ve been trying to find frontpages from newpapers on day after elections to compare that to the final votes (I’ll bet there are Freepers who have saved some of those pares in ther homes.) I think I do remember that the day after the election in ‘o8, it was already determined that ‘08 had exceeded ‘04, and I was underwhelmed in that the supposed electoral phenom had only brought out about 5 m more votes as opposed to the incremental boost of almost 20 m between ‘00 and ‘04. I’ll bet there will be three million votes added totally between the two candidates.


7 posted on 11/08/2012 8:44:09 PM PST by gusopol3
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To: Strategerist

Don’t blame folks for commenting about the data they have at their disposal. You’re talking about new numbers not previously published. Furthermore, you have no evidence the “true conservatives” that stated they would not vote for Romney actually voted for Romney.


8 posted on 11/08/2012 8:46:23 PM PST by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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To: Strategerist

I guess I will believe it when I see it up there that Romney got 64 million.

Some of these ballots still aren’t counted because of the new early voting processes. These new early voting options are KILLING the GOP.

What I think has happened the last two elections is that these long early voting periods allow the Dems plenty of time to go out in their union paid vans and roust up all their inner city voters, senior home voters, deliver absentee ballots to the homeless, etc. In some states they have 4-5 weeks to do this now.

In the past, they needed to get all those deadbeats and mentally incapacitated people to the polls on one day. That was hard work and a logistical nightmare.

Now, I know the GOP early vote was better this year. But after talking with my friends and family, I learned that probably 50% of them early voted. These are hard core conservatives who vote in every election. They just love early voting because it doesn’t interfere with their jobs and families. So I think despite Rove’s white board and Larry Schweikart on here saying we were winning the early vote, I think we just cannibalized our good regular election day voters.

To me that is the single largest lesson from Tuesday. The GOP flat out has to find more voters and get them to vote early. Certainly candidate, message, etc are all needed. But that early vote strategy with non regular voters needs to be employed by us.


9 posted on 11/08/2012 8:47:53 PM PST by SteveAustin
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To: Gene Eric
Don’t blame folks for commenting about the data they have at their disposal.

People too stupid to think for 5 seconds about the data they have at their disposal, or to spend 2 minutes researching the nature of the data and learning it takes weeks to count all the votes, deserve all the blame that they get. Particularly people like Limbaugh and popular bloggers.

You’re talking about new numbers not previously published

Every single number I used in my analysis was published yesterday morning.

10 posted on 11/08/2012 8:55:13 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

It’s not 90% of the votes cast, it’s 90% of the precincts. The last 10% of the precincts could be 10,000 votes in a state with millions of votes cast.


11 posted on 11/08/2012 8:55:37 PM PST by sufus
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To: SteveAustin
What I think has happened the last two elections is that these long early voting periods allow the Dems plenty of time to go out in their union paid vans and roust up all their inner city voters, senior home voters, deliver absentee ballots to the homeless, etc. In some states they have 4-5 weeks to do this now.

In the past, they needed to get all those deadbeats and mentally incapacitated people to the polls on one day. That was hard work and a logistical nightmare.

This.

It matters. They are probably getting a couple million extra votes this way. There is no real reversing this early voting nonsense, we are just going to have to emulate it. It's harder for us considering the Dem machine voters are in confined urban areas, but we are just going to have to figure out how to compete.

12 posted on 11/08/2012 8:58:27 PM PST by Longbow1969
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To: Strategerist

With the exception of OH and PA ? While he did better in surrounding states ? My theory follows:

When the early/absentee votes for OH showed up and the 1% precints was still showing Dick Morris tweeted not to worry as this was the early vote. However, I was very worried because of the numbers. There was an 18.5% gap with a near 60/40 split which was not what we had heard.

Rasmussen and others were telling us this was 40% of the vote and I knew we couldn’t make that up. When I compared it to 2008 it was actually about 20% of that vote which meant we had a better chance of making it up but once again 20% didn’t make sense from what we knew. Where did the other votes go and why were these votes so skewed ? Were early votes from R counties destroyed ?

Then when I heard that Romney got less votes than McCain in OH and PA it really made me think that there might have been an effort to destroy the early votes from Republican areas. The reported party breakdown of early votes in OH on election day according to Bloomberg’s Dem source: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-06/the-early-election-results-captured-by-democratic-microtargeters was 50D 36R 14I. The only way this turns into a near 59:40 breakdown is if the Indies went about 70:30 to Obama or many R’s voted for O which the polls don’t seem to bear out.

The only other explanation I can think of is that only the early voting was shown and absentees were much more favorable for us but not listed ? The actual # reported on Bloomberg was 1,442,536 which was about 27% or so and when I looked it up on a site that gave the actual counts down to the voter’s names it should have actually been in the 30s percentage wise. Perhaps you can find the breakdown of absentee vs early votes somewhere ?

In surrounding states like IN, KY, WV Romney did much better than McCain by percentage and generated more votes overall. He also did better in other battlegrounds.

Either the negative/mostly untrue ads suppressed our voters only in OH and PA or someone suppressed their actual votes in a big way. I just can’t believe Romney/Ryan with 4 yrs of Obama turned out fewer R voters than McCain in these states. Other states in the eye of the storm or out West that we knew wouldn’t count, maybe there but not OH and PA. All the indicators were going our way all day, either we were being lied to or something happened. BTW, my absentee ballot never showed up as I went to the polls to check on it.


13 posted on 11/08/2012 8:58:44 PM PST by Bigjimslade
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To: Strategerist

Bump....


14 posted on 11/08/2012 10:01:32 PM PST by Intolerant in NJ
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