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Low turnout--evangelicals sat it out?
Powerline ^ | Nov. 8, 2012 | Steven Hayward

Posted on 11/08/2012 11:29:45 AM PST by fifedom

Romney may underperform (or barely match) in turnout the listless McCain in 2008. According to exit polls Romney won white evangelicals by a four-to-one margin—as high or higher than George W. Bush in 2004. Could it have been that many evangelicals couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Mormon, and simply stayed home?

(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012analysis; 2012analysisreligion; 2012electionanalysis; election; mormons; president
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A Disquieting Thought

Wait, the turnout was what?! As the numbers continue to come into focus (and the final vote tally is still days or weeks away), the fact that Romney may underperform (or barely match) the listless McCain in 2008 is the real shocker of the election. Maybe we should have just run McCain/Palin again. Obama’s vote total will be down something like six to eight million from his 2008 total; it is unprecedented for a president to be re-elected without adding to his vote total from the first election. Hardly a vote of confidence.

The white vote, it turns out, was tepid. If the white vote had turned out to its potential, Romney wins and we wouldn’t need to go through the current hand-wringing about whether the GOP needs to seek amnesty from Latinos. What’s going on here? Keep two factoids in mind. First, according to exit polls Romney won white evangelicals by a four-to-one margin—as high or higher than George W. Bush in 2004. But second, recall Karl Rove’s theory after the 2000 election that Bush’s missing majority in that train-wreck election was the 3 million or so evangelicals who stayed home and didn’t vote, possibly because they were put off by the late DUI news about Bush. Finding and (successfully) turning out those voters became the key to Bush’s increased margin of victory in 2004.

It’s going to be a while before we know better whether the total potential evangelical vote didn’t turn out for Romney, and if not, why. Could it have been that many evangelicals couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Mormon, and simply stayed home? I distinctly recall polling data from back in 2008 that found as many as 20 percent of voters said they wouldn’t vote for a Mormon (versus only about 1 or 2 percent for a black or a Jew), and I wondered whether those 20 percent were un- or anti-religious liberals who wouldn’t vote for a Republican in any case, or whether they were theologically conservative evangelicals who are uncomfortable with heterodox Mormon doctrine? I’ve had numerous conversations with serious evangelical friends over the last couple of years who all said of course I’ll vote for Romney because I can’t stand Obama, but they admitted having doubts about it. My self-selecting sample are mostly intellectual and politically-engaged evangelicals; what about the kind of evangelical that doesn’t like or follow politics closely? Keep in mind that a lot of evangelicals eschew politics as a this-worldly dominion best left alone: the City of Man versus City of God.

Sean Trende doesn’t think so. He thinks rural whites in Ohio just didn’t turn out. Neither does AllahPundit, who offers some exit poll numbers. But Charlie Martin thinks maybe so. And see David Mason in the Washington Post today:

Evangelical America has been flogging Mormonism as Satan’s own retail outlet for decades. But the suddenly ubiquitous appearances of the word cult on the eleven o’clock news and in ostensibly serious political conversations in the early primary days gave legitimacy on the national stage to the characterization of me as a glassy-eyed, reclusive loon from whom the neighborhood alley cats run in fear.

One thing for sure: the major media and establishment political analysts won’t touch this with a ten-foot pole.

1 posted on 11/08/2012 11:29:58 AM PST by fifedom
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To: fifedom

Could it have been that many evangelicals couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Mormon,

I am so sick and tired of this question....This is the correct question.......COULD IT HAVE BEEN THAT MANY EVANGELICALS COULDN’T BRING THEMSELVES TO VOTE FOR A LYING SACK OF CRAP LIBERAL ROMNEY?????? It had nothing to do with Mormonism. I am neither Mormon or Evangelical.


2 posted on 11/08/2012 11:43:29 AM PST by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: fifedom

That Obama did so poorly compared to 2008 is what makes this loss so much more depressing. Victory was clearly there for the taking, yet our side didn’t turn out to it’s potential, and we didn’t turn enough of Obama’s white voters who did actually vote.


3 posted on 11/08/2012 11:43:29 AM PST by Aetius
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To: fifedom
I believe that was the case with the missing Republican votes.

Strangely I have talked to a number of religious black people who said they were not going to vote for president this time because they did not like either candidate. I'm not sure if there was a missing number of black voters or if they were just blowing smoke.

Did the presidential vote numbers come out the same as the other races?

4 posted on 11/08/2012 11:44:33 AM PST by oldbrowser
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I just read things indicating the Evangelical turnout was as high as ever, now it is being doubted again? Does anyone actually KNOW or is this based on “exit polls” again or what?

Maybe we all need to let this simmer for awhile until some real number crunching can go on. It seems the GOP/Conservative numbers crunchers are getting their AZ!Z kicked by Lib numbers crunchers....so let’s give it a while to figure things out.


5 posted on 11/08/2012 11:46:46 AM PST by Crimson Elephant
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To: fifedom

If voting against Obama isn’t enough to get Evangelicals off their asses and to the polls, what is?

I say screw ‘em as a voting bloc.


6 posted on 11/08/2012 11:54:16 AM PST by Retired Greyhound (.)
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To: napscoordinator
..COULD IT HAVE BEEN THAT MANY EVANGELICALS COULDN’T BRING THEMSELVES TO VOTE FOR A LYING SACK OF CRAP LIBERAL ROMNEY??????

In '08, the G.O.P.e. handed us a s### sandwich and said, " here's a very nice sandwich, go ahead, eat it, you'll like it".

So in 2012, they hand us another s### sandwich and tell us, "you'll like this one much better, for you see, this time, it's on toast"!

7 posted on 11/08/2012 12:03:35 PM PST by Holly_P
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To: Crimson Elephant
No they don’t know, they said this crud after McCain lost and it turned out to not be the case. I’m seeing this malarkey so much here today, I wonder if there’s not a little “agent provocateuring” going on.
8 posted on 11/08/2012 12:04:47 PM PST by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: Holly_P

It’s most likely not even true, just as it wasn’t after McCain. I notice that the people who plainly said they wouldn’t vote for Romney-the libertarian types-aren’t being mentioned.


9 posted on 11/08/2012 12:06:21 PM PST by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: Holly_P

I guess next time they’ll skip the bread and just feed us the s###.


10 posted on 11/08/2012 12:09:21 PM PST by The Bard (http://www.myfbc.com)
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To: Retired Greyhound
Unwad them knickers. Evangelicals turned out 80 percent for Mitt. More than any other demographic. Even more then Mormons!

 

11 posted on 11/08/2012 12:09:46 PM PST by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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To: fifedom
Could it have been that many evangelicals couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Mormon, and simply stayed home?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Nope. Not at all......

Linkie.

12 posted on 11/08/2012 12:14:04 PM PST by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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To: Responsibility2nd

Your table only shows the percentages among people who voted. It does not say what fraction of each group actually turned out to vote. The original article makes it clear that Romney did well among evangelicals who actually did vote.


13 posted on 11/08/2012 12:19:56 PM PST by fifedom
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To: fifedom

Evangelicals were a slightly larger part of the 2012 electorate than in 2008. The raw numbers were down, but that was true across the board in pretty much all subgroups.


14 posted on 11/08/2012 12:21:34 PM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: fifedom

Basically, the republicans said to conservatives, “Screw you. We don’t need your input. We don’t support your values. You embarrass us. Go away. We don’t need you to win.”

Since the republicans chose to run Romney, they have no one but themselves to blame for the loss.

Message to republicans, if you want conservative support, run a real conservative!


15 posted on 11/08/2012 12:24:40 PM PST by Jemian
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To: Responsibility2nd
Unwad them knickers. Evangelicals turned out 80 percent for Mitt. More than any other demographic. Even more then Mormons!

Did fewer numbers of Evangelicals over all turn out to vote? 80% of those Evangelicals who voted on the presidential race does not take into account Evangelicals who stayed home or only voted down ticket, the latter numbers are the relevant numbers.

16 posted on 11/08/2012 12:25:36 PM PST by Holly_P
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To: Responsibility2nd

I should have read the rest of the replies, before replying.


17 posted on 11/08/2012 12:28:02 PM PST by Holly_P
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To: Responsibility2nd
I followed the links to the original article. The source is hardly un-biased. It comes from a survey by Ralph reed's organization, who have a vested interest in making themselves look successful.

If Reed is correct, how do you explain that the latest numbers indicate Romney got fewer votes than McCain?
18 posted on 11/08/2012 12:28:49 PM PST by fifedom
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To: Retired Greyhound
I say screw ‘em as a voting bloc.

Already been said by the republican party. This "battered wife" just left the abuser and said, "screw someone else."

19 posted on 11/08/2012 12:28:49 PM PST by Jemian
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To: fifedom
The original article makes it clear that Romney did well among evangelicals who actually did vote.
 

Really? With a question like this "Could it have been that many evangelicals couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Mormon, and simply stayed home?" it looked like another "Blame Christians First" article.

Is your post # 1 part of the article? Naturally I didn't click the link. And since you posted such a short incomplete excerpt, I figured there wasn't anything to read anyway.

20 posted on 11/08/2012 12:29:45 PM PST by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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