Skip to comments.With sterling call, Nate Silver defines new wave in polling
Posted on 11/08/2012 4:57:01 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
So much for gut feeling.
After correctly predicting the results in 49 of the 50 states that have been called in the U.S. election (Florida remains too close to call), Nate Silver, the statistician behind the popular FiveThirtyEight blog, woke on Wednesday to find himself the poster child of what is sure to be a new data-driven approach to politics.
While Obama was declared the winner of the election, Silver won the polling race. Television anchors from Rachel Maddow on the left-leaning MSNBC, to Bret Baier on the right-leaning Fox News, praised his accuracy. A comedian on Twitter called him "The Emperor of Math." Silver's publicist said he had been so inundated with requests she had been unable to reach him.
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Nothing that I could say here without getting into trouble. :^)
Yes, it turned out Silver’s model was dead on yet again. The polls were right - and an average of polls are incredibly accurate.
People need to stop disputing polls. No more whining about D+ samples, for the most part the pollsters know what they are doing.
Biggest loser? Mark Halperin.
He went around giving 3 scenarios. Close Obama, close Romney, blowout Romney.
Somehow, I missed Halperin’s spiel. Morris and Rove, who were everywhere with Romney landslide calls, struck out bigtime, too.
1. Romney/Ryan got less votes this year than McCain/Palin did in 2008.
2. Romney/Ryan won in every state that had voter ID laws.
Is this reasonable, or is something else at play?
They haven't finished counting.
I harbored the hope there was some sort of systemic bias in the state polls, or there would be a Bradley effect - though I thought the whole “Unskewed Polls” business was nonsense all along. I actually attacked Silver a bit on some other boards, which I regret.
The Unskewed Polls page will end up one of the greatest embarrassments to the Right there ever has been.
Beyond all the other groups that Republicans have to appeal to somehow in the future (Women, Hispanics, etc.) there’s another one - the highly educated. Rabid hatred of scientific methods in attacks on polling, etc. doesn’t help (to say nothing of creationism, and other issues.)
Morris was insane with his blowout Romney.
Rove blew $300 million as well.
10% of voters were Latino. Obama won 71% of their vote.
Young voters. Single women. Social issues (abortion, rape philosophizing MSM spin) were the key. Many would vote for fiscal conservative / socially liberal but that party doesn’t exist.
Romeny won 60% of white vote - 90% of Alabama white vote (!).
But demographics is shifting.
Next election the numbers will be worse. More Latinos. War on family will mean more single women.
Don’t see how the GOP can create a national majority coalition. The WASP values are dying. 40% of all babies now are bastards.
Only 69% of the votes in California have been counted - and that’s just one state.
With regard to Nate Silver: Don’t blame the messenger. I blame myself for hanging high hope on the words of Dick Morris and Michael Barone. Even the vaunted Scott Rasmussen, who missed by a couple critical percentage points here and there, gave me some misguided optimism.
He was dead-on right. Amazingly.
I really thought turnout would overcome his predictions, but... nope.
BS, BS, BS! Conservatives sat out this election. That's the only reason Obama won. The reverse happened from what actually was predicted by a majority.
Morris was right. If conservatives would have voted as we thought then it would have been a slam dunk for Mitt. What was missing is those conservatives who told the republican party if you give us a rino we are not voting for them! This is exactly what happened!
ALL THE VOTES ARE NOT COUNTED YET.
Romney actually got about 7% more votes in swing states than McCain did, if you project final votes by the portion of votes already counted. I will do a full spreadsheet of all states and project final vote totals tonight as this myth is pernicious.
They keep citing demographic vote turnout that simply doesn’t reflect observable reality.
College campuses around the country had little or no activity, yet turnout was reported above 2008 levels.
That theme was repeated across many demographics.
For that reason I continue to believe massive, organized vote fraud was a major factor in this election.
Yes, and the Dem Internals reflected the impact of their organized vote fraud.
They knew where they were going to pump up the volume, predicted same, and poof!, it happened just as planned!
He’s a damn cheat. Almost certainly he got the Zero internal polls again.
He was accurate because he factored in the vote fraud endemic in the early voting, the bloated registrations, the Democrat machines across the country, and the fecklessness of the GOP to do anything about it.
Good points. The GOP might be over, if they can’t adapt and change. I have my doubts that they can, without a 3rd party for Conservative arising.
Fair enough. Even more reason to believe Silver’s data. Prior to the election Axelgrease was 100% confident of the Marxist’s impending win. Guess his internal data were spot on.
You are embarrassing yourself.
Morris doesn't even claim that. He says his mistake was second guessing pollsters models for minority turnout. Basically, he says he underestimated how many blacks, Hispanics, single women, etc, would show up at the polls.
Also, the "majority" never predicted Obama to win. The majority on some conservative sites and Fox News maybe, but in the greater media universe the vast majority correctly picked Obama to win a narrow election. This includes seasoned election analysts like Cook, Sabato, Rothernberg, etc, - all thought Obama would win. Only the conservative echo chamber that was foolishly claiming all the polls were skewed thought otherwise.
Then whoever is putting together the Rat internals is a genius.
With such an enormous, unfettered, precise, and coordinated vote fraud machine, why is the House still Republican by a large margin?
Great point and the elephant in the room here on FR. Many are saying we need a "real" conservative to win, someone who is unapologetic about their opposition to gay rights and abortion. But, unfortunately, I truly believe we are way past that place. If we continue to believe that the evangelical vote is our "base" and that we must have it to win, we will never win another election. I am personally pro-life and support traditional marriage, but I am also coming to terms with the fact that insistence on including them into our political platform is a losing proposition. If our country goes under financially, none of that will really be important anymore, will it? If we can't find work and feed our families do you really think anyone will care? What we need is a platform that appeals to all the factions that go nearly 100% to the Dems - they outnumber us, and if we fail to appeal to them, fiscal conservatism will wither and die. We MUST figure out a way to effectively get the message out that good fiscal policy is their road to success and happiness.
“Conservatives sat out this election. That’s the only reason Obama won. The reverse happened from what actually was predicted by a majority.”
Totally agree. Key conservative blocs sat out on principle and helped hand the Socialists a victory. Without a doubt, many couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Mormon. We even saw many Freepers of this ilk proclaiming their inability to support Romney; sometimes referred to as “cutting off the nose to spite the face.”
Nate Silver schooled the clueless anecdotal echoers at FR like it was nobody’s business. I have never seen someone who was so derided by the masses here turn the tables on us so convincingly and so completely. It was an utter failure of FR contributors in ignoring polls and creating fantastic conspiracy theories to debunk them. Silver single-handedly eviscerated the establishment opinion on FR.
Makes a lot of sense when you recall the 2010 census data went to the WH instead of the Commerce Dept as it has forever. What do you think the WH wanted that for? Every swing state voter was identified. JMO
It is only safe to plan to impact the Presidential vote, far in advance of the election. Too much time and thought required to fake the entire ballot.
A lot of people are wrestling with this very thing.
The new generation is far more libertine and there is just no stopping that now. I still think our loss can be mostly attributed to rapidly changing demographics (Hispanics primarily) that want free stuff, but there is no doubt that the GOP is increasingly out of step with the new generation on social issues. I am in a suburban area and I am taken aback fairly often at how 20 somethings I run into regularly at the office and elsewhere won't even consider the GOP because of their social issue stands. I mean, these people have a stereotype of a Republican party that is backwards and they won't even consider aligning with it.
I don't know the answer here. I think you will probably start seeing Republicans opposing social order laws to attract the libertine younger crowd. Probably still going to be nominally pro-life, but I suspect Republicans will more and more back ending drug laws, gambling laws, prostitution laws, etc. Social order laws look increasingly doomed since there won't be anyone to support them among the major party's.
I don't see the remotest scrap of evidence that this is true.
It's not a very effective means of argumentation to simply invent non-existent data that you wish to be true to support an argument.
Doing so is just repeating the "Unskewed Polls" fiasco all over again.
Yep, that's true because with what we thought, Mitt had momentum and Obama voters did not. But the FACT still remains enough conservatives did not vote because they said they would not back Romney when he was first nominated.
Only the conservative echo chamber that was foolishly claiming all the polls were skewed thought otherwise.
You are correct only because nobody realized conservatives wouldn't vote for a LOSER rino to beat Obama! ...And I meant the "majority" of republican's. Should have clarified this.
I was told on a thread once that socially liberal, fiscally conservative people didn't exist. Astounding blindness.
There are plenty of people on FR (perhaps even a majority" that live in a fantasy world that believes if Sarah Palin ran in 2016 with her top platform planks being making abortion illegal in all circumstances, banning gay marriage and re-banning homosexuality in the military, and getting prayer back in schools, that she would win because this mythical true conservative base would magically show up at the polls.
That's worse than Baghdad-Bob-ism.
Dole - rino - Loser
McCain - rino - Loser
Romney - rino - Loser
What does this tell you dumbass?
Conservatives sat out!
This "FACT" is from where? A couple hundred FR posters?
There were about 6%, or more than 200,000, MORE votes for Romney in Texas than there were for McCain. So where is the evidence that anyone stayed home?
Sorry, I mistyped that!! It was not meant for YOU personally. It was meant for the republican party insanity of foisting rino's upon us!
I am always correct and look incredibly brilliant when the outcome is something I am privy to in advance.
This is why he looks like a guru. He really isn’t. He is just the guy they use to soothe worried lefties.
NH instituted a voter ID law. RR lost.
I just posted it. Tell me when a RINO has won nationally in the last twenty years? That's 5 election cycles!
My Goodness you people are blind as bats! I would venture to bet Gingrich would have won.
What is needed is another Great Awakening. America’s moral state was also highly perverted before these societal and spiritual events.
A remnant of godly people remain in this nation. Whether they are enough to keep us from experiencing judgement. I pray we do.
In Mississippi, even adjusting for the population increase from 2004 to 2012, Romney got 2% more votes than Bush did in 2004.
How is that remotely possible if Conservatives are staying home?
No, Morris was wrong. Everyone who sat in front of their computer imagining what people would do on election day was wrong. It wasn't just conservatives. If you Google around, you'll find blogs from liberals predicting that Obama would take Arizona. Yeah, they actually said that.
The people who were right were the people who actually called a representative sample of voters and asked them what they were going to do on election day. I know this whole "asking people what they think" thing might seem like some kind of wacky, far-fetched approach out of Star Trek, but it turns out that it works better than the Dick Morris' approach of "guessing."
Every poll aggregator made roughly the same prediction. Did they all have Obama's internal polls?
Dems use many ways to fraud the vote. The only votes they fraud are the President and the Senate.
They do not care about the House right now. In fact, they like the GOP in charge of the House this time. They can blame them for everything and whip them around to make the whole country hate them. If the House doesn’t do what Obama wants, he ignores them and pulls out the Executive Order pad, calls the MSM, and they put the word out that the GOP is partisan and doesn’t care about the country. They figure next midterm, the hated Tea Baggers will get the boot. Heh Whatta country. LOL
If they send some bus of fraudsters to the polls. They are only told to mark the dem president and senate on their ballots.
I am guessing here, but this seems to be the way things are working. This is the reason the 2010 results meant nothing.
“I don’t see the remotest scrap of evidence that this is true.”
2008 McCain total votes: 59,948,240
2012 Romney total votes: 57,821,399 (>99% precincts reporting)
Are there via “natural attrition” or some other demographic change over the past 4 years 2.1 million fewer conservatives? Or, did many conservatives who voted for McCain switch to the Marxist? I don’t think so. For whatever reason, many people (more than 2 million!) who voted for McCain did not vote for Romney. Most confusing: Rasmussen just this week described self-identified Republicans outnumber Democrats by 6 percentage points. Poor conservative turnout has to be included in the list of many reasons for Romney’s loss.
I'm not disputing Morris was wrong...I didn't convey my thought correctly...I'm disputing why Romney lost. And it was simply because enough conservatives did not vote for him. You can deny all you want too,but nationally RINOS are losers!
Thank you for pointing this out. This is exactly what lost NH. We are a fiscally conservative socially liberal state now. ALL the MEN running for major offices lost because the dems promoted the lies that they did not care about womans issues. We lost in NH because we did not win WHITE WOMEN.
Unlike other states we do not have much hispanic or black population. We are better educated on average. We do not have a big welfare state. Our unemployment is lower than the rest of the northeast. We are NOT a big union state. YET, WE GOT OUR BUTTS KICKED. We even lost the NH state house to the dems this year.
IF we want to ever win a national election again we need to stop putting up candidates that they can fear monger us with a womans right to choose. It is a personal issue. Woman do not want anyone telling them what they can do with their own bodies. Especially young women. We need to take this issue off the table.
We also need to stop blaming the media. We all know the MSM is biased. It always will be. However, why didn’t Romney go David Letterman, The Tonight Show ,etc? We need to appeal to younger voters. Did RR spend any time on college campuses?
We need to appeal to Hispanics. This voting block is growing. As they grow, they are becoming wealthier. They have good family values. They are willing to work hard to get ahead. I recently bought a Toyota pickup from a hispanic immigrant. He grew up in Mass. His parents probably came here illegally. I did not ask. He worked 6 days a week, about 10+ hours a day. He was making about 100K. He was married with a new baby. I tried to hire him to work at my business because I was so impressed with him. This is the type of person that belongs in the Republican party. Yet, I would bet if he voted, he probably voted dem.
We NEED to bring these folks into the Republican Party. If we do not, put a fork in us were toast.