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Dick Morris: Why I Was Wrong
National Review ^

Posted on 11/07/2012 12:06:52 PM PST by TigerClaws

Dick Morris explains why his prediction was completely off:

I’ve got egg on my face.  I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.  

The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels.  Didn’t happen.  These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay.  And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.  

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Political Humor/Cartoons; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 11/07/2012 12:06:56 PM PST by TigerClaws
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To: TigerClaws

Morris is wrong here.

Turnout for Obama was way down in this election from 2008.


2 posted on 11/07/2012 12:09:30 PM PST by cgbg (HLM--"Democracy is the theory that people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.")
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To: TigerClaws

Gotta love Dick. Couldn’t have been more wrong on his prediction last night and back today telling us how to interpret last nights results.


3 posted on 11/07/2012 12:11:06 PM PST by skeeter
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To: TigerClaws

sorry dick- not buying it...there was no “surge” of obama voters; he got 7 million less votes last night than four years ago and barely 50% of the vote....what everyone missed on was the expectant surge of GOP voters and the myth the enthusiasm was on our side...

then again when the GOP is run by feckless and weak people why should we be enthused??


4 posted on 11/07/2012 12:11:21 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: cgbg
Actually, the 'utes and street thugs could have been showing up in the same numbers as 2008 but a good 9 million others didn't!

That would be 3 million dead, injured, wounded or senile ~ since the last election, and 6 million who stayed away because they realize they were triced by a street hustler and it won't happen again.

They didn't walk across the street and vote for Romney though ~

5 posted on 11/07/2012 12:13:03 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: TigerClaws

Congratulations on waking up Morris! All of us people in flyover country knew all along that the blacks would vote black and the hispanics would vote for amnesty and the young would vote for abortion. There is no rational argument to be made that can sway those groups.

The only surprise was that very few white people changed from D to R over the past 4 years.


6 posted on 11/07/2012 12:14:04 PM PST by Bryanw92 (Sic semper tyrannis)
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To: cgbg
Morris is wrong here. Turnout for Obama was way down in this election from 2008.

So Morris is wrong about being wrong.

He should be fired from Fox.

What does he bring to the table?

Telling Clinton insider stories is old.

We need an Obama insider on Fox.

They apparently know what they are doing.

7 posted on 11/07/2012 12:14:04 PM PST by cicero2k
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To: TigerClaws

He’s got a dozen eggs on his face.


8 posted on 11/07/2012 12:14:09 PM PST by Wiggins
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To: God luvs America
what everyone missed on was the expectant surge of GOP voters and the myth the enthusiasm was on our side

I would like to see the final party breakdown, however. My thought (though I'd need data to confirm it) is that the GOP turnout was fine, but that independents stayed home, attenuating Romney's strong showing with them in the polling. That would explain both the lower overall turnout and Romney's lower percentage.

9 posted on 11/07/2012 12:14:09 PM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: TigerClaws; All

There were less Obama voters overall.

BUT, minority voters were up.

Folks, we have to figure out how to address this or we’re done as a party.

And screaming deport them is not exactly going to win votes of non-whites. Have to find some way to support the rule of law while not alienating those folks.


10 posted on 11/07/2012 12:14:22 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: TigerClaws
It's OK, Dick.

No one takes you seriously anyway.

11 posted on 11/07/2012 12:15:20 PM PST by gdani
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To: muawiyah

Romney actually got less votes than McCain... that’s just hard to believe.

where did all the conservatives go? did millions of them die in the last 4 years or something?

*sigh*


12 posted on 11/07/2012 12:15:27 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: TigerClaws

Because it’s a habit?.........


13 posted on 11/07/2012 12:15:42 PM PST by Red Badger (Lincoln freed the slaves. Obama just got them ALL back......................)
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To: cgbg

YOU are right DM is wrong. There is something very strange here. If you had told me yesterday that Obama was in the 60-62M vote range, I would have been ecstatic. Then we hear all the high turn outs all over yesterday, I would have thought 70M - 62M landslide. Theres’ millions and millions of vaporized votes....


14 posted on 11/07/2012 12:18:43 PM PST by C. Edmund Wright ("DONE: The GOP Establishment Has Now Lost 2 In a Row")
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To: TigerClaws

Shut up Dick, nobody cares what you have to say anymore.


15 posted on 11/07/2012 12:18:49 PM PST by jmacusa (Political correctness is cultural Marxism. I'm not a Marxist.)
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To: TigerClaws

I don’t know. The Romney campaign seemed to have Tokyo Rove’s finderprints on it. We remained somewhat splitered.
Romney could have crafted a way to reach out to Evangelicals so they wouldn’t stay home. He could have done the same with runner-up Ron Paul in order to maybe capture some of the fervor and enthusiasm of the Paul voters. Same with Sarah Palin. But if we eliminated voter fraud and non-citizens voting we would have also won.


16 posted on 11/07/2012 12:20:05 PM PST by ransacked
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To: God luvs America

Is it safe to assume the dufus Prince Reibus / Prius Reibus will be canned from the RNC Chairman position or will he get re-elected?


17 posted on 11/07/2012 12:20:12 PM PST by Blue Highway
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To: TigerClaws

Dick, you were wrong because you’re Dick Morris.

Don’t worry, it doesn’t mean you’re useless, it just means you shouldn’t bother predicting an election result ever again.

In all seriousness, I’m trying to figure out how the battleground poll got it as wrong as they did. They were looking at good state by state data, supposedly.


18 posted on 11/07/2012 12:20:21 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: TigerClaws

Note to Self: Never listen to a toe-sucker.


19 posted on 11/07/2012 12:20:52 PM PST by polkajello
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To: TigerClaws
You were only wrong in the fact you did not account for massive voter fraud. Do you think Chavez wins without cheating. I think someohow they just got rid of or changed
Republican votes using those e machines would make it alot easier. My husband was at work today and one of his coworkers who is a liberal was upset Obama won he did not vote for him and he told my husband it is a sad day for our Country this is a liberal who said it. The whole thing seems strange to me and Alan West come on wasn't/t he popular? This whole thing smells fishy. Is Obama a liar Yes he is and does he not have a history of cheating to get what he wants? Yes he does. The people have been had
20 posted on 11/07/2012 12:22:06 PM PST by funfan
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To: TexasFreeper2009

The only reason McCain got as many votes as he did, was because of Sarah Palin. PERIOD.


21 posted on 11/07/2012 12:23:00 PM PST by Blue Highway
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To: Bryanw92

“Congratulations on waking up Morris! All of us people in flyover country knew all along that the blacks would vote black and the hispanics would vote for amnesty and the young would vote for abortion. There is no rational argument to be made that can sway those groups.

The only surprise was that very few white people changed from D to R over the past 4 years.”

BINGO!!

Blacks will vote Dem, mexiclowns will vote Dem. It will and always shall be. Whites are slowly running to the R’. Just like my S African friend told me. Whites will be the victims out of pc.


22 posted on 11/07/2012 12:23:32 PM PST by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: TigerClaws
Dick Morris says: These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.

So that means the youth and minority vote will completely abandon Hillary or Slow Joe in 2016.

23 posted on 11/07/2012 12:24:17 PM PST by KarlInOhio (Big Bird is a brood parasite: laid in our nest 43 years ago and we are still feeding him.)
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To: rwfromkansas
Why not just do what the Dems did? Blow it up from the inside and blame the guy in power. This is how you do it

1. Raise Taxes: Let the Bush tax cuts expire for everyone thus raising taxes
2. Fiscal Cliff: Do not raise the debt ceiling
3. Blame Obama for the outcome

The beauty of this approach is that it necessarily guarantees smaller government, if forces cuts in spending. It increases unemployment on Obama's watch (hey, they voted for this). It paints liberalism as the reason for the downfall. If I were running things up there this is exactly what I would do and I would have a landslide victory in 2014. From there I would gridlock further and say that we can't work with the President, his ideas have brought us 20% unemployment and drastically devalued the dollar. Liberalism will be reduced to rubble for at least a decade. Is it worth destroying the country to gain back power? Personally, I think this would be a dramatic improvement on the country. No one would look to the government because the poverty of the feds would be evident. We won't have to talk about fiscal cliff's anymore because we already jumped. The only questions we would have to ask is what to cut next. If you're not able to get the President to agree to cut then that's fine, just wait him out and landslide again in 2016 with a rabid Conservative.
You're welcome

P.S, since it's vanity day I'll post this as a story
24 posted on 11/07/2012 12:24:34 PM PST by wiseprince
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To: TigerClaws; All

Well...I guess he took a few mins of his time away from “Hooker Toes” to apologize

When is he gonna apologize for sandbagging Bibi Netanyahu in the 90’s, at the request of his boss, Bill Clinton


25 posted on 11/07/2012 12:24:58 PM PST by SeminoleCounty (Political maturity is realizing that the "R" next to someone's name does not mean "conservative")
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To: rwfromkansas

its very easy to address...there’s a group of intelligent, articulate black conservatives who call themselves Project 21...they are unafraid to tell other black Americans liberalism is a disease...one of their main members, Deneen Borelli, gave the best speech during the 9-12 Taxpayer March on Washington....why hasn’t the GOP rolled out the red carpet for these brave Americans???!!! why have they not brought them into the fold??? why don’t they see if this group can help develop candidates???

ITS THERE FOR THE TAKING BUT THE GOP IS TO EFFING DUMB!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LejNkRd-3w


26 posted on 11/07/2012 12:26:05 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: rwfromkansas
Folks, we have to figure out how to address this or we’re done as a party.

And screaming deport them is not exactly going to win votes of non-whites. Have to find some way to support the rule of law while not alienating those folks.

The party itself has been trying to make inroads. But we have to fight both the democrats efforts to brand us and the media's efforts to do the same. Both of them fought hard to derail two black republican candidates, West and Love. The media would even go to commercial when a minority was speaking at the convention. That is what we have to fight through.

27 posted on 11/07/2012 12:26:24 PM PST by Vince Ferrer
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To: wiseprince

I wouldn’t block the raising of the debt ceiling.
It won’t matter, as far as the credit rating of the USA goes, whether it is raised or not.


28 posted on 11/07/2012 12:27:39 PM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: Blue Highway

this is the GOP we’re talking about...my dollar to your donut they gave him a contract extension this morning....


29 posted on 11/07/2012 12:28:16 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: rwfromkansas

Exactly!


30 posted on 11/07/2012 12:28:56 PM PST by MeanGreen2008
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To: cgbg

[Turnout for Obama was way down in this election from 2008.]

Turnout for Obama was down almost 10 million from 2008. And Republican turn-out was down about 2.7 million from 2008. If GOP turnout had been greater than 2008 as party officials and pundits claimed it would be Romney would have won.


31 posted on 11/07/2012 12:29:23 PM PST by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: rwfromkansas
BUT, minority voters were up.

Folks, we have to figure out how to address this or we’re done as a party. I know this is not politically correct, but I think running a black guy had quite a bit to do with the increase in the minority vote.

With that said, Republicans have to figure out a way to get the hard working socially conservative Latino vote on their side.

32 posted on 11/07/2012 12:29:37 PM PST by NYRepublican72
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To: rwfromkansas

Folks, we have to figure out how to address this or we’re done as a party.

And screaming deport them is not exactly going to win votes of non-whites. Have to find some way to support the rule of law while not alienating those folks.


If you don’t deport them, they will become Democrat voters anyway. And, any form of Illegal Alien Amnesty will lose the GOP more conservative and moderate voters than Hispanic voters gained

The GOP will continue to lose national elections until they fully commit to secure borders and 100% Deportation. Promising Amnesty to Illegal Alien Hispanics is a sure loser


33 posted on 11/07/2012 12:29:39 PM PST by SeminoleCounty (Political maturity is realizing that the "R" next to someone's name does not mean "conservative")
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To: TigerClaws

Dick who?


34 posted on 11/07/2012 12:29:44 PM PST by bella1 (As it was in the days of Lot.....)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

I’ve read comments on this forum that Romney was no different that Obama. I have friends who wasted their vote on the Libertarian for the same reason.

I wasn’t thrilled with Romney but knew he was different than the Kenyan.

The conservatives stayed home because Romney was not “perfect”.


35 posted on 11/07/2012 12:30:14 PM PST by GreatMan
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To: wiseprince
Why not just do what the Dems did? Blow it up from the inside and blame the guy in power. This is how you do it

1. Raise Taxes: Let the Bush tax cuts expire for everyone thus raising taxes
2. Fiscal Cliff: Do not raise the debt ceiling
3. Blame Obama for the outcome

You read my mind. You should give this idea its' own thread.

36 posted on 11/07/2012 12:31:11 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: TigerClaws

Screw Dick Morris.


37 posted on 11/07/2012 12:31:41 PM PST by CriticalJ (Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress.. But then I repeat myself. MT)
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To: TigerClaws

He’s basically right. We all said the polls were wrong as to the make up of the electorate. We and Dick were wrong, the likely voters were as he now concedes. Don’t see how anyone can dispute that.


38 posted on 11/07/2012 12:32:44 PM PST by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009
where did all the conservatives go? did millions of them die in the last 4 years or something?

I wonder if this [link] can explain it?

In California prop 30 passed even if polls consistently said unlikely to pass and 32 with overwhelming approval but didn't pass. Something pre-programmed whatever? :-)

39 posted on 11/07/2012 12:33:10 PM PST by hamboy
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To: TigerClaws

Shut up, DICK. You’ve been wrong so often I think that you’re a democrat agent.


40 posted on 11/07/2012 12:35:03 PM PST by snowrip (Liberal? You are a socialist idiot with no rational argument.)
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To: cgbg

I’m with you; we’re halfway there. Between 5-10 m stayed home, but they did not switch their votes unfortunately. I was talking to someone today that said he “wasn’t into Mormonism” because he objected to missionaries knocking at his door. He said he actually liked Paul Ryan. Maybe everyone else had heard that as a reason vote was suppressed for Romney, but I hadn’t.


41 posted on 11/07/2012 12:36:28 PM PST by gusopol3
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To: Vince Ferrer

Then the MSM Communists need to go.


42 posted on 11/07/2012 12:36:43 PM PST by Windcatcher (Obama is a COMMUNIST and the MSM is his armband-wearing propaganda machine.)
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To: TigerClaws

43 posted on 11/07/2012 12:37:31 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: kevkrom

That’s a great point, and would account for a lot of this just not adding up.

I have no use for recriminations, I don’t think it was a perfect campaign, but it should have been enough, should have been plenty.

This was a wave election for real conservatives, but not for so called ‘moderate’ Republicans, or Indies, and not for democrats.

If you find those numbers - please ping me.

Poll question, now that I’m thinking about it. All along, we heard that enthusiasm was up for R’s over D’s. Here’s my question: When saying ‘enthusiasm is up for an R’ ... does this mean a.) One who identifies as a Republican or b.) Anyone who answered that they were voting for Romney.

Do we know anything about Independent enthusiasm?

I’m sure I could look at some internals, but I imagine someone knows, and I think if I look at another internal, my own internals will spew out my mouth :-)


44 posted on 11/07/2012 12:37:36 PM PST by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: TigerClaws

Point #1, I could never figure out how the racial identity is known from a ballot. And Point #2, The voting youth who support this vile regime are in for a rude awakening when the money runs out to pay for their cherished entitlements!


45 posted on 11/07/2012 12:38:12 PM PST by vivabushchick (Obama lies: The gift that keeps giving.)
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To: TigerClaws
Hopefully this will be the last we see of Dick Morris and Karl Rove. Did anyone see the painful awkward moment when Rove questioned projecting Ohio?

Very embarrasing

46 posted on 11/07/2012 12:38:37 PM PST by catfish1957 (My dream for hope and change is to see the punk POTUS in prison for treason)
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To: TigerClaws

You’re always wrong, Dick. No need to explain.


47 posted on 11/07/2012 12:39:09 PM PST by BillyBoy ( Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: TigerClaws
Sadly enough if this election told me anything it's that Rove, Morris, Barone, breitbart.com and most of the other right wing websites and election predictors were totally full of sh*t. Worse yet, Nate Silver and the media polls were pretty much spot on. In the future, I'm forced to give far less weight to Dick and his crew and far more to that liberal pantywaist Nate Silver, as much as I despise doing so.
48 posted on 11/07/2012 12:40:48 PM PST by apillar
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To: Brad from Tennessee

Obama GAINED votes from his base groups - Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Single Women. A lot of votes.

Which means he LOST a ton of white votes, independents, moderates, males, that voted for him in 2008.

So say he started with his 69 million total from 2008. Add about 8 million (estimate) to that on increased Latino, Black, Asian and Single Female vote. That would have put him at 77 million but instead he will end up at 64 million or so.

So about 13 million people who voted for him last time left him in droves. Whites, Males, Catholics, Moderates, Independents, etc.

Romney was up in exit polls in all those categories. Yet Romney appears to be eventually ending up with what McCain got maybe a little more. Say 62 million as a generous number.

So where did the 10 million or more people who left Obama but didn’t vote for Romney go?? They ALL sat home and didn’t vote? That is one of 3 possibilities, all seemingly curious and unlikely.

The other two possibilities are: 1) what Romney gained from siphoned off Obama 2008 votes he lost from people who sat out because he is Mormon or too liberal/moderate; 2) vote fraud where Romney votes disappeared into the ether.

Where did those 10 million white Obama 2008 voters go???


49 posted on 11/07/2012 12:41:15 PM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: TigerClaws

Good ol Dick, admitting he’s wrong but for all the wrong reasons. The rollback DID happen just like he said, what he missed was the chunk of core conservatives that like Romney even less than they like McCain.


50 posted on 11/07/2012 12:41:42 PM PST by discostu (Not a part of anyone's well oiled machine.)
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