Posted on 11/07/2012 5:25:20 AM PST by Arm_Bears
The credibility (such as it was) of Dick Morris and Karl Rove has been shredded.
As such, this forum is now free to ignore any of the tripe spewed from their pie holes.
(Of course, they will still be embraced by the GOP-e.)
This place became a fantasyland echo chamber and people like Morris, Barone, etc, fed into it. The polls always pointed to a Obama win. The state level polls were clear as a bell, Hussein was poised to win a narrow victory. The vast majority of the election commentators/analysts were calling for a narrow Obama victory - including Cook, Sabato, Silver, etc. Meanwhile here on FR people were mindlessly yammering about "unskewing" polls when it was clear they had no idea what they were talking about.
It's really time for folks to face reality. There is not a silent majority in this country any longer for the old traditional American values. We are well along the way to becoming a European welfare state. We probably cross the tipping point during Obama's first term with all the new people dependent on government.
By every objective and subjective statistical analysis, Obama was toast. The economy was the biggest factor and he was losing bigtime on the economy. T.O.A.S.T. , D.O.N.E, done done done.
Foreign policy was a disaster and he presented no solutions but managed a tie with Romney.
The trend lines showed that Romney had not only momentum, but clear and significant momentum across all key demographics including women and the much vaunted undecideds. Their suppositions were based on fact and maybe too much feeling thrown in which skewed their outcome.
I too looked at the internals of all the polls I could and I too saw the same things. My observations is that Obama took a knee a month ago and we just ran out of time.
The D+11 models were flawed and basically a joke by rational statistical standards but they did yield the correct result. Obama did manage to secure the 51%.
People will be digesting this for a long time because the underlying facts don’t support the results.
Nate Silver doesn’t really get the last laugh. He did not forecast a close vote. He saw Obama running away with it.
“But we don’t expect them to be election specialists. Morris helped Clinton and Rove helped Bush so you’d think they’d know what they were talking about.”
________________________________________
That’s true.
I wonder how someone as apparently incompetent as Dick Morris ever had any career in politics.
His constant flip-flopping on Twitter made it clear that he has no more “special insight” than I do. Florida is down by 3, BAD NEWS! This just in - Romney could win Florida by 5-8 points! Oh no, Obama up by 2 in Florida, this is troubling...wait, now Romney’s catching up! He’s going to win this!
It was crazy.
I’m still waiting for all the Freepers who promised me an FU ping when I was wrong today...
LOL, you and me both. Somehow I don't think any apologies will be forthcoming.
In the end, I held out some hope, but I knew it would come down to about 1 percent, I had hoped for Romney, but alas, it did not.
Their credibility was shredded elections ago
The only ray of sunshine is that the last time I checked the 22nd ammendment is still part of the Consitution
In the case of Dick Morris, absolutely true. Look for him to turn up selling ice cream from a push cart on some beach now.
But the GOP’s strange fascination with The Architect defies all understanding. He’ll be BAAAAA-AACK.
I think Obama won this race for a whole lot of reasons that are deeper and far more serious than Chris Christie showing up with him post-Sandy.
But insofar as that is the perception....yes, Christie’s career in the Republican Party is toast.
Romney had some momentum when Gallup and Rasmussen showed him up several points, no doubt. I agree the storm derailed that opportunity for him to keep that momentum rolling. Still, Obama was narrowly winning throughout the closing phases of this campaign and there is no way for us to really judge how much hurricane Sandy added to his final total. Looks like Obama won the popular vote by around 2 points and captures the electoral votes the state polling was telling us he'd win all along.
Sandy was part of it, but from a tactical point of view, I think another thing is/was voter fatigue. People simply didnt vote in the numbers that have voted before. I think the voters by and large had gotten sick of the whole thing. When that happens, its the superior GOTV effort that will win. The Democrats do the GOTV thing much better than the Republicans, MUCH. They have a deeper pool of numbnutz voters from which to draw on, and easier ways of getting them to the polls. The GOP simply MUST improve on their efforts, or Presidential wins will be near impossible.
You'd think so, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Cristie pushed by GOPe next time around as a "moderate who can win". Like Romney.
Or sand-bagged us.
Benedict Arnold logged some important victories for the Continental Army before, well, you know. . .
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