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Data the Romney Campaign is Looking At
NRO ^ | 11/6/12 | Rich Lowry

Posted on 11/06/2012 2:47:03 PM PST by Clint N. Suhks

This is what the Romney folks say is encouraging them. Passed along for what it’s worth:

CO:

Adams County (lean D county) – strong R turnout based on morning data – on track to win since first time in 1984.

AB/EV margins will be hard for them to overcome today. Right now – it’s a virtual tie.

Arapahoe (Swing County) – 4860 D, 5271 R – Election Day so far

Over 83% of the vote was AB/EV – Dem: 75653 Rep: 75812

Jefferson County (Swing) – 78738 D, 85378 R for AB/EV

Waiting on election day

Teller County (Hard GOP) – 173 D, 656 R for election day

Winning 5-1 with AB/EV – clearly outperforming 2008

Archuletta/ Moffatt – western slope counties where we needed to run up the score. Well here you go:

Archuleta County

175

57

Moffat County

253

49

IA:

Republicans are already over-performing their share of returned absentee ballots and early votes in 95 of Iowa’s 99 counties – including critical counties like Black Hawk, Cerro Gordo, Dallas, Des Moines, Dubuque, Johnson, Linn, Marion, Muscatine, Polk, Pottawattamie, Poweshiek, Sioux, Story, Wapello, Woodbury, and Winneshiek.

Republicans are even over-performing their share of ballots returned in 75 of 99 counties compared to 2004, the first time a Republican candidate carried Iowa in a presidential election since 1984, and are over-performing 2004 statewide by more than 3 points.

Suburban turnout is very high. Ankeny, Clive, and Urbandale precincts are seeing a lot of Election Day traffic. Those are Republican precincts.

NW Iowa counties which are hugely Republican but just never blew out turnout for McCain are voting in very large numbers. Those counties very fired up for Mitt.

Rural turnout high and we’re leading among rural Iowa voters.

Record low turnout in lefty Johnson County (Dems already voted all their base with early vote) – proving our point about cannibalizing their high propensity voters.

Republican precincts are turning out today, like we want it to be. Dem precincts are lighter but expected lighter because they’ve voted so many early.

FL:

Bay County, FL – which went 71 – 28 for GW Bush in ‘04 – is adding staff at voting locations because of overwhelming turnout.

Hialeah (FL), highest % Cubans & Cuban-Americans in America & regarded as “most GOP” b/c of vote history, reports lines around the block.

- 2 hour lines reported in Walton County, a county that voted 73.2% for George W. Bush in 2004 (21 points above the statewide percentage for Bush).

- Hour-plus lines reported in Escambia County, a county that voted 65.3% for George W. Bush in 2004.

- Long lines and Republicans outvoting Democrats by nearly two to one in traditional bellwether county Pasco (of which Jeb Bush famously said “as goes Pasco, as goes Florida” which George W. Bush won’t by 10 points in 2004.)

- Shorter wait times reported in Miami-Dade County – especially in Democratic precincts. Democrats usually win Miami-Dade by 10 pts or more. (Obama won it by 16 points in 2008.)

- LONG line is of Precinct 69 in Ft. Myers (Lee County). Breakdown of registered voters in that area is below: R: 1,314 D: 531

NH:

Over 90% of the vote is on the table for Election Day

Very high turnout in strong GOP towns of Pelham, Bedford, Merrimack, Atkinson, well surpassing 08 numbers. Estimates for Bedford have nearly 90% turning out, and it’s a 60/40 GOP Town.

Dems slightly behind or on par with 08 numbers. Concord not turning out, reports of small or nonexistent lines.

Bedford – a top 5 GOP town that gave McCain 59% in 2008 -reporting 800+ voters per hour w/anticipated turnout of near 90%

NV:

About even in Washoe for AB/EV – held them to where we needed to in Clark for the early vote.

Overall – Clark County is seeming to be lower than anticipated and we’re seeing strong turnout in the rurals. This is what we need to play ball to win.

OH:

Absentee and early vote activity is over 17 percent higher in counties McCain won than counties Obama won, compared to 2008.

Turnout is higher in counties and media markets McCain carried in ’08 than in counties and markets Obama carried.

There are 34 counties in Ohio that John McCain won where absentee and early vote turnout is over 120 percent of 2008. There are only 9 counties where Obama won four years ago where this is the case.

@HotlineJosh: Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.

GOP county turnout up

· Plain Dealer: Geauga election chief predicts 80 percent voter turnout today

· Geauga County early vote was 125% more than 2008 early vote

· McCain won Geauga County with 57% and Bush got 60% in ‘04

Dem county turnout down

· WOUB: Athens County Election Officials: Morning Voter Turn Out Low

· Athens County early vote was 10% less than 2008 early vote

· Obama won Athens County with 67%

PA:

Coal Country is coming out stronger than in previous elections according to data we’ve received.

Final AB #s of returns as opposed to requests is going to come in at about R+8 which would put it 1 pt to the right of 2010. 8pts to the right of 2008. (a small but telling number)

Northern Bucks County is coming out strong for GOP (this is a bellweather)

Western PA is turning out in historic numbers for a Presidential – remember this is coal country. They are not voting for Obama

Southcentral PA is turning out strong (traditional GOP stronghold)

VA:

In Staunton’s Ward 4 in 2008, 1450 people voted. As of 1:30 p.m. today , 1223 people had voted. McCain won this precinct 54.8 – 44.3.

By noon 972 votes had been cast in Elmont’s precinct 704 in Hanover County. In 2008, there were 1422 total votes cast in the precinct, which McCain won 68-30 in 2008.

In Democratic stronghold Charlottesville at 1 p.m., turnout was 36 percent of registered voters. Obama got 80 percent of the vote there in 2008.

In Democratic stronghold Martinsville at noon, turnout was out 34 percent of registered voters. Obama got 65 percent of the vote there in 2008.

Yancey Precinct In Augusta County has seen 1474 people vote as of 1 p.m., that’s 48 percent of the precinct’s registered voters. John McCain won Yancey Precinct 68 to 30 percent.

Bluefield media market and Withville we’re seeing 2 hour wait lines – this is coal country in VA. These are Romney voters.

WI:

Massive lines in Brookfield – a high 60’s GOP county – over 200 in line at 6:15am and polls did not open until 7.

We’re hearing reports of low turnout this morning in both Madison and Milwaukee.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Colorado; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Virginia; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: colorado; florida; iowa; nevada; newhampshire; ohio; pennsylvania; virginia; wisconsin

1 posted on 11/06/2012 2:47:05 PM PST by Clint N. Suhks
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To: Clint N. Suhks

Nationwide, Americans are willing to crawl over glass to vote against Obama!


2 posted on 11/06/2012 2:50:58 PM PST by Erik Latranyi (When religions have to beg the gov't for a waiver, we are already under socialism.)
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To: Clint N. Suhks

OMG OMG OMG...stomach hurting...i just want to wake up tomorrow....i hate suspense.

Please someone tell me its going to be okkkkkayyyyyyyyyy.
AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


3 posted on 11/06/2012 2:51:46 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: Clint N. Suhks

Are we banning exit poll info from Drudge? In any event they were wrong in 2004, and voting continues in Ohio, etc. Republicans have to get home from work to vote. I won’t accept or worry about exits this year.

Anectodally, people keep telling me they have never voted but registered to vote Obama out. Let’s hope so.


4 posted on 11/06/2012 2:52:27 PM PST by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Clint N. Suhks

Curious...I did notice Romney and Ann in blue today...first sign of reaching across the isle?????? hmmmmmm I think they know they won!!!! just a suspicion....

ok back to panic omg omg omgoshhhhhhh


5 posted on 11/06/2012 2:54:11 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: Clint N. Suhks

With such long lines in GOP leaning FL panhandle I hope the media doesn’t pull a 2000 pre-mature call at 7pm, an hour before polls in the CST panhandle closes.


6 posted on 11/06/2012 2:54:52 PM PST by The Hound Passer
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To: Texas4ever

Knowing that the democrat party is surviving on cheating and lies, you might look at the higher absentee and early voting turnout as the dems targeted areas, to cut the “R” numbers down by posting fraudulent votes in greater numbers than in ‘08. Until hangings occur for those committing vote fraud treason, this democrat anti-American cheating will only grow more pernicious and more organized.


7 posted on 11/06/2012 2:55:07 PM PST by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: Texas4ever

hahaha! I love your post! I feel that way, too, although these numbers are encouraging indeed. I keep thinking- less people voting for BHO, more for Republican ticket and indies breaking to RR= we win. How can it be otherwise? but then my stomach starts churning again. Ugh.


8 posted on 11/06/2012 3:02:20 PM PST by luv2ski
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To: Texas4ever
I did notice Romney and Ann in blue today...first sign of reaching across the isle??????

...I'm guessing Mitt doesn't own any red suits...

9 posted on 11/06/2012 3:04:05 PM PST by ghost of nixon
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To: Clint N. Suhks
So it's going to come down to this: was the Chicago machine able to commit sufficient fraud to steal a victory.
10 posted on 11/06/2012 3:05:22 PM PST by absalom01 (You should do your duty in all things. You cannot do more, and you should never wish to do less.)
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To: luv2ski

Im going to get a bottle of wine and start drinking. If it looks good I will stop, Thank the Lord, call my 75 year old mom and celebrate together....If we lose..I will just drink the rest of the bottle, think about going to work tomorrow and throw away my tv, computer and stop all mail for the next 4 years ;(


11 posted on 11/06/2012 3:08:17 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: Texas4ever

GOP turnout is great by all accounts. Everythings gonna be fine.


12 posted on 11/06/2012 3:11:38 PM PST by skeeter
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To: Texas4ever
Im going to get a bottle of wine and start drinking.

After tonight, my tapeworm will be entering the 12 Step program.

13 posted on 11/06/2012 3:12:02 PM PST by N. Theknow (Kennedys=Can't drive, can't ski, can't fly, can't skipper a boat, but they know what's best for you.)
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To: Texas4ever

I don’t even want to think about losing!


14 posted on 11/06/2012 3:13:04 PM PST by luv2ski
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To: N. Theknow

Between the tweets today and FR, I can’t stop laughing! (good! bc I need it!)
One guy tweeted that if a person tweeted “EXIT POLLS!!!” and linked to a virus, he could pretty much bring down western civilization.
LOL


15 posted on 11/06/2012 3:16:41 PM PST by luv2ski
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To: skeeter

Skeeeter...you are the best!!

I will keep focused.

No drudge
No MS...anything
NO Cn nything
No Facebook
Ok FReepers your my guiding light...omgoshhhhhhhhhh


16 posted on 11/06/2012 3:16:41 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: Texas4ever
from twitter: David Burge ‏@iowahawkblog "after 2000, 2004 and the WI recall, who the hell commissions exit polls? It's like a burn victim buying his 4th Ford Pinto."
17 posted on 11/06/2012 3:19:49 PM PST by luv2ski
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To: luv2ski

Iowahawk bump


18 posted on 11/06/2012 3:21:03 PM PST by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: Texas4ever
Several, on the rocks may help too:)
19 posted on 11/06/2012 3:23:00 PM PST by skeeter
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To: skeeter

Stay thirsty my friend!! ha ha!!

I would take ripple at this point


20 posted on 11/06/2012 3:25:02 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: luv2ski
Exit Polls

The Dan Rather of election results.

21 posted on 11/06/2012 3:27:21 PM PST by N. Theknow (Kennedys=Can't drive, can't ski, can't fly, can't skipper a boat, but they know what's best for you.)
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To: Texas4ever

I.can.not.stand.this.


22 posted on 11/06/2012 3:29:30 PM PST by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: ghost of nixon

“...I’m guessing Mitt doesn’t own any red suits...”

That there is funny.... good one.

thanks


23 posted on 11/06/2012 3:33:09 PM PST by mike_9958
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To: Clint N. Suhks

CLARK COUNTY NEVADA (LAS VEGAS) TURNOUT IS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, WHILE REST OF THE STATE IS ABOVE AVERAGE TURNOUT

http://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500


24 posted on 11/06/2012 3:41:44 PM PST by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: Texas4ever

Stay here with friends—this is a great group that can separate fact from fiction.


25 posted on 11/06/2012 3:48:40 PM PST by cgbg (Crying MSNBC lefties on election night=Victory!)
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To: ghost of nixon

I’ll bet Ann does. Isn’t she one of the most attractive women in politics today?


26 posted on 11/06/2012 3:51:50 PM PST by Vermont Lt (The dude abides.)
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To: riri
I'm staying here please fill me in CHEERS everyone starting on glad number one !!!🍷
27 posted on 11/06/2012 4:00:36 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: Texas4ever
Take one of these, and stick with FR !              :^)


             

28 posted on 11/06/2012 4:03:29 PM PST by tomkat (Vote today like the Constitution depended on it - - because IT DOES !)
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To: tomkat

Taken the chill pill only in liquid form. ;).


29 posted on 11/06/2012 4:08:10 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: tomkat

Gosh thanks, I needed one of those!

Now after that interlude, back to obsessive pacing and worrying.


30 posted on 11/06/2012 4:09:37 PM PST by JustaCowgirl (Mitt Romney -- Obama asks for votes for revenge, I ask for votes for love of country)
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To: Texas4ever

Ok not watching. My freeper support group. What’s happening?


31 posted on 11/06/2012 4:09:59 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: JustaCowgirl; Texas4ever
Perhaps I picked the wrong lifetime to quit drinkin' !


LOL .. uhhh, no  (trust me ;-)

32 posted on 11/06/2012 4:12:14 PM PST by tomkat (Vote today like the Constitution depended on it - - because IT DOES !)
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To: mike_9958

I can see him in a Santa suit showing his grandchildren the time of their lives!


33 posted on 11/06/2012 4:12:53 PM PST by ScoopAmma (We are led by the Resident -in Chief; aka part-time member of Webelo Troop 44)
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To: Texas4ever

My Dem friend just texted she hated me!!! Ha ha. Let the party begin;)


34 posted on 11/06/2012 4:13:42 PM PST by Texas4ever
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Clint N. Suhks.


35 posted on 11/06/2012 4:49:17 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: ScoopAmma
“I can see him in a Santa suit showing his grandchildren the time of their lives!”

yep... ok one red suit.

36 posted on 11/06/2012 4:51:19 PM PST by mike_9958
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To: skeeter

Sorry for the bum steer. I really gave people more credit for brains.


37 posted on 11/07/2012 7:40:22 AM PST by skeeter
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