Posted on 11/06/2012 12:31:34 PM PST by TigerClaws
re: Pasco County, FL as of 2:00pm
76963 / 177458 = 43 R's 62079 / 177458 = 34 D's 38416/ 177458 = 21 I's
(McCain won Pasco 51-48 in 2008)
(McCain won Pasco 51-48 in 2008)
(Excerpt) Read more at pascovotes.com ...
It was busy...
Three of those are mine.
Looks like at least 55-44 for Romney, +4 over McCain. FL in 2008 was 51-48, so if this pattern were to be held for the entire state it would be 52-27 Romney. Nice.
On my way to Land O’Lakes Rec Center to record my vote!! Here is a link to the pictures I took at the Romney Rally that was a major part of all this Mittmentum a week ago last Saturday! Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Victory!
http://www.ourtownfla.com/index.php?news&action=view_news&news_id=654
52-27 => 52-47
Actually more like +10 Romney vs McCain. We need to stretch these margins to +12 to get the senate
I liked it better the way you had it.
I like 52-27 better.
In Pasco I know only one person voting for Obama, but she is a naturalized former European. She’s not typical in any way.
The comments I have heard about O would make your ears burn. This is a redneck county, people DONT like him here. And face it, he doesn’t care. We are all bitter clingers here, he never expected us to vote for him in the first place and has no trouble insulting us, so that’s that.
I will say , for those who feel the Romney totals should be higher, that quite a few folks I know voted Johnson (many had trouble with the Mormon thing). However, on the down parts of the ballot, most voted Republican the rest of the way, so that is good news.
Plenty of votes for Romney from my family in Hernando here ;)
See my post 10.
A naturalized former European voting for O? All the naturalized former Europeans I know are solidly anti-Obama. (Either grew up under Communism and recognized him instinctively for what he is, or grew up under crony capitalism and where at best ambivalent if hopeful he’d turn out to be the centrist he pretended to be in ‘08 and are bitterly disappointed.)
Ha! I got tired after standing so long for one vote so will have to run back after supper to put in votes for the dog, the cats, the chickens, and the Democrat neighbor who is so gorged on the cake I baked she won’t be showing up today.
To piggy back on the earlier thread regarding Pasco County. As we know, this county has released data of how many people from each registered party have voted. As of 3:18 today, the published results are as follows:
Pasco County Supervisor of Elections Page
Total Republicans- 79,268 (43.27% of total vote)
Total Democrats- 64,005 (34.94% of total vote)
Total Indys/Other- 39,915 (21.79% of total vote)
Here’s why this is important. The website also tells how their registered voters are aligned by party:
Total Republicans- 120,860 (38.85% of Pasco County)
Total Democrats- 108,154 (34.76% of Pasco County)
Total Indys/Other- 82,087 (26.39% of Pasco County)
Why are these results so key? Because Republicans are coming to the polls in hugely disproportionate numbers. Despite making up just 38.85% of the total registered voters, they are already accounting for 43.27% of the vote total. Those 5 percentage points may not look like much, but trust me- they are enormously significant. Meanwhile, Democrats make up 34.94% of the total registered voters. Yet, they are accounting for just 34.76% of the vote total. In other words, there is no motivation or drive to exceed their basic party line numbers. This also means a lot of crossover votes for Romney.
When you realize that independents/others will probably break at least 60/40 for Republicans in this conservative county, Romney will will Pasco County by somewhere in the area of 10-12 points. This would exceed even Bush’s numbers in 2004 when he won Florida relatively handily.
I know, I know- it’s just one county in one battleground state. But I think it is a very telling early statistic and may be indicative of the way this plays out tonight.
Pasco is the indicator of Florida. Jeb Bush said as Pasco goes, so goes Florida.
Thanks.
You beat me to it! I was just doing EXACTLY the same analysis and coming up with EXACTLY the same conclusion. And note, these are the first real hard facts of this election.
Now let me add something to your analysis. If we assume that the extra Republican enthusiasm in this county plays out across the country, then R’s will outperform their registration by 5%. Since the D’s have a 3.5% advantage in registration, that would mean an overall R+1.5% electorate!! If that happens you can take any poll you have ever seen and add at least 3.5% and as much as 10% for Romney!
This matches very neatly with what the folks at Unskewed Polls predicted yesterday:
“The current electorate is made up of 36.9 percent registered Democrats, 33.3 percent registered Republicans and 29.8 percent independent voters. This is based on current and recent survey data from the various QStarNews polls and surveys.
Because of higher enthusiasm levels on the Republican side, the actual makeup of the voters that participate in the 2012 election is projected to be 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. From this electorate, the popular vote is projected to be 51.4 percent for Romney and 47.9 percent for Obama.”
http://unskewedpolls.com/2012electorate_2.cfm
If Pasco county is representative. you can even add 1 or 2% to Romney’s totals!!
Dutch.
Pasco Co. library on Collier Pkwy.
5.56mm
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