Skip to comments.Intrade's betting on Obama (paid out $650,000 already-Obama win)
Posted on 11/06/2012 11:21:03 AM PST by listenhillary
The race to the White House is neck-and-neck, according to the polls. But in the world of gambling and prediction markets, the outcome of Tuesday's election is plain as day.
President Obama has a 71.5% chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, according to Intrade, a website where users place bets on everything from politics to Academy Award winners.
That gives Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 28.5% chance of winning.
If you don't like those odds, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power said Monday that it was already paying out bets that Obama would win, a day before voters went to the polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at buzz.money.cnn.com ...
see where INTRADE is at 10pm tonight
they Must KNOW S O M E T H I N G !!!!
Does anyone know Intrade’s success rate on these things?
Some things are most notable for what they leave out. Left out in this “article” is any information as to who is placing these bets. What I read is that they are largely placed by Europeans who use the MSM for their political information.
CNN wouldn’t know balance if it came up and slapped them in the face.
There’s not a bookmaker in the world that pays out before the event.
I predict they’ll be renaming the place INDEBT, after they pay off the Romney backers.
Any place that does this, is way way way too tweaked for me to trust.
Intrade is a fraud if they pay out before the election
I hope no FReeper put any money into that scam
I have heard horror stories from Ohio. FReepers will be stunned at the lengths to which Obama has gone to steal the election. MASSIVE fraud going on out there, especially in early voting.
This was probably a scam to steal money from Republicans and give it to Democrats from the start
Most Polls have it dead even and they are pauing out ? LOL
Most Polls have it dead even and they are paying out ? LOL
You can’t use it if you are in the USA? I think that is the case.
Given that Intrade is European-based, has mostly European clients and it’s illegal to pay into Intrade using a debit or credit card issued by a US-based bank, I’d say those posting Intrade threads as some sort of bellweather should be flogged.
Present company excepted.
That said, it’s not uncommon at all for bookies, especially in the United Kingdom, to pay out early on bets.
I think if you have a foreign bank account or something, I am sure there are ways
Considering all the voter fraud stories I’m reading, including the latest on Drudge of Obama murals at polling places and considering the GOP does nothing as usual, I won’t be surprised in the least if the admitted foreign national from Kenya is unconstitutionally elected again.
Me thinks some eastern european money-hustler is laughing all the way to the bank as we speak.
the mathematics of probability work differently in the UK?
It’s like the South Park episode where Jesus and Satan arranged a boxing match, everyone bet on Satan because they were sure he would win, then Satan takes a dive, and it turned out he was the only one who bet on Jesus to win, so he wound up with all of their money.
A. They had Kerry at 71% four hours before the polls closed in 2004
B. They were at 70-75% that the USSC would overturn Obamacare
C. They are basing their numbers off BS polls
D. OR, and I know this sounds conspiratorial, but I wouldn't put it past the Dems to blow a few million dollars to try to skew Intrade in hopes of effecting the election
What possible reason is there to pay out early? There is no advantage to doing so. That makes less than any sense. It is something out of Orwell.
” I predict theyll be renaming the place INDEBT “
By Ben Rooney November 6, 2012: 12:55 PM ET
Is the only source for this I have found. It makes no sense for them to pay out.
This is BS, no bookmaker pays out before an event. It’s true that Romney is a 2.5 to 1 underdog, but it’s almost impossible for a US citizen to make a wager on the election. It can be done but you have to Western Union the money to the Philippines first. The high odds on Romney is partly because of the staggering amount bet on Obama way back to the beginning of this year and the fact that all the people betting are from Europe and Russia.
Over the years, I’ve found that these betting/stock trading sites are absolutely WORTHLESS are predictors of future events. They just follow the polls, and news of the day in general. IGNORE THEM(unless you want to take a shot at earning some easy money).
“they Must KNOW S O M E T H I N G !!!!”
Yeah they do. The election is rigged.
Both of these betting agencies are Irish, and I wouldn’t be surprised if many of these bets are in effect campaign contributions to European leftist candidates.
Remember Hillary Clinton’s cattle futures deal? If the price went up, she won. If the price went down, somebody else lost. The scoundrels who were giving her that “no-lose” were in effect not only paying her off, but then writing off any losses, if they had any, and not just other investors.
Probably just some kind of money laundering. They don't have a very good record of being right.
At this point, it's impossible to call. But I would rather have money on Mitt than Obama any day.
same number was there three weeks ago
I bet they were reimbursed for this. This is more the “it’s inevitable Republicans so don’t bother voting” garbage.
Sorry but I must disagree, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has done this many times before. It is quite apparently a marketing decision that reaps, as we see here, large amounts of publicity.
Still, I put this and Intrade in the same catagory as the multiple reports that we have had on how Obama is far more popular in China, Kenya, Europe and other foreign places. Totally irrelevant and worthy of, at the most, a yawn.
Now, if we could have an investigation of foreign campaign contributions ... that is relevant!
Soros michief? Maybe this is the “declare victory early” story we heard in order to discourage Republican voters.
Publicity stunt to get the sheep to put their money on 0bama at -350 ....which is a sucker bet to begin with
Sorry I’m not buying it. Way too often in things that people bet on the thing everybody “knows” will happen doesn’t. If the bookie paid off early he then has to go get the money back, that’s just stupid. There’s no margin in it, only bad things can happen. Maybe they announce it, maybe they even cut checks that are post dated but they aren’t paying out early. They also apparently have a rep for not paying out on long odds, which tells you just how honest they are and how much you should believe them when they say they’re paying early.
I say delusional BS!
Looks like a penny stock pump and dump.
I’m going to go to the track and see if they will pay out on a horse before the end of the race.
That had occurred to me also.
The Irish are the world’s foremost authority on American politics. They say so themselves, therefore it must be true. /s
First time for everything I suppose but this doesn't give me heart .....
my guess: these payouts (laundering) were already planned for an obama win.
Now they feel/know obama will NOT win so they are paying out a day early.
When the election is called they say “wow, how could we (wink, wink) have been so dumb!”
The Mitt payouts will cause them to declare bankruptcy (oh, dear, we can’t pay them now!)
Thanks man...That does make me feel better.