Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Intrade's betting on Obama (paid out $650,000 already-Obama win)
Cnn.com ^

Posted on 11/06/2012 11:21:03 AM PST by listenhillary

The race to the White House is neck-and-neck, according to the polls. But in the world of gambling and prediction markets, the outcome of Tuesday's election is plain as day.

President Obama has a 71.5% chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, according to Intrade, a website where users place bets on everything from politics to Academy Award winners.

That gives Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 28.5% chance of winning.

If you don't like those odds, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power said Monday that it was already paying out bets that Obama would win, a day before voters went to the polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at buzz.money.cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-71 next last
Interesting. Will they ask for their money back after they have paid it out?
1 posted on 11/06/2012 11:21:05 AM PST by listenhillary
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

see where INTRADE is at 10pm tonight


2 posted on 11/06/2012 11:24:23 AM PST by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

they Must KNOW S O M E T H I N G !!!!


3 posted on 11/06/2012 11:24:54 AM PST by stevecmd
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Doogle

Does anyone know Intrade’s success rate on these things?


4 posted on 11/06/2012 11:25:45 AM PST by Heavyrunner (Socialize this.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Some things are most notable for what they leave out. Left out in this “article” is any information as to who is placing these bets. What I read is that they are largely placed by Europeans who use the MSM for their political information.

CNN wouldn’t know balance if it came up and slapped them in the face.


5 posted on 11/06/2012 11:26:08 AM PST by OldPossum
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

There’s not a bookmaker in the world that pays out before the event.


6 posted on 11/06/2012 11:26:17 AM PST by discostu (Not a part of anyone's well oiled machine.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Doogle

I predict they’ll be renaming the place INDEBT, after they pay off the Romney backers.

Any place that does this, is way way way too tweaked for me to trust.


7 posted on 11/06/2012 11:26:44 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Yes Toto, it's over!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Intrade is a fraud if they pay out before the election

I hope no FReeper put any money into that scam


8 posted on 11/06/2012 11:26:58 AM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

I have heard horror stories from Ohio. FReepers will be stunned at the lengths to which Obama has gone to steal the election. MASSIVE fraud going on out there, especially in early voting.


9 posted on 11/06/2012 11:27:37 AM PST by montag813
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

This was probably a scam to steal money from Republicans and give it to Democrats from the start


10 posted on 11/06/2012 11:28:21 AM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

Most Polls have it dead even and they are pauing out ? LOL


11 posted on 11/06/2012 11:28:22 AM PST by scooby321 (AMS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: stevecmd
they Must KNOW S O M E T H I N G !!!!

Former DNC Chair Howard Dean: The Only Way We Lose Is Through Fraud...

Doesn't loopie Howard have that backassward?
12 posted on 11/06/2012 11:28:22 AM PST by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

Most Polls have it dead even and they are paying out ? LOL


13 posted on 11/06/2012 11:28:36 AM PST by scooby321 (AMS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

You can’t use it if you are in the USA? I think that is the case.


14 posted on 11/06/2012 11:28:38 AM PST by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Given that Intrade is European-based, has mostly European clients and it’s illegal to pay into Intrade using a debit or credit card issued by a US-based bank, I’d say those posting Intrade threads as some sort of bellweather should be flogged.

Present company excepted.

That said, it’s not uncommon at all for bookies, especially in the United Kingdom, to pay out early on bets.


15 posted on 11/06/2012 11:30:31 AM PST by Colonel_Flagg ("Don't be afraid to see what you see." -- Ronald Reagan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

I think if you have a foreign bank account or something, I am sure there are ways


16 posted on 11/06/2012 11:30:31 AM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Considering all the voter fraud stories I’m reading, including the latest on Drudge of Obama murals at polling places and considering the GOP does nothing as usual, I won’t be surprised in the least if the admitted foreign national from Kenya is unconstitutionally elected again.


17 posted on 11/06/2012 11:30:39 AM PST by GrandJediMasterYoda (Someday our schools we will teach the difference between "lose" and "loose")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stevecmd
they Must KNOW S O M E T H I N G !!!!

Aah yes-
The NEW Pentaverate: The Queen, the Rothchilds, the Gettys, the Vatican, and INTRADE replaced Colonel Sanders.
18 posted on 11/06/2012 11:31:56 AM PST by brent13a
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary
I think something fishy is going on here, not pertaining to the election. Somebody is making big money on an event that hasn't happened yet, I smell a MASSIVE fraud scheme.

Me thinks some eastern european money-hustler is laughing all the way to the bank as we speak.

19 posted on 11/06/2012 11:32:57 AM PST by Wyrd bi ful ard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary
Intrade is European. It's headquarters are located in Ireland.
The socialist Europeans favor NOboma, of course. I believe it's wishful thinking and a false belief Americans feel the same way about NObama as they do.
20 posted on 11/06/2012 11:33:43 AM PST by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Colonel_Flagg

the mathematics of probability work differently in the UK?


21 posted on 11/06/2012 11:34:59 AM PST by RitchieAprile
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Wyrd bið ful aræd

It’s like the South Park episode where Jesus and Satan arranged a boxing match, everyone bet on Satan because they were sure he would win, then Satan takes a dive, and it turned out he was the only one who bet on Jesus to win, so he wound up with all of their money.


22 posted on 11/06/2012 11:35:10 AM PST by dfwgator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Heavyrunner
"Does anyone know Intrade’s success rate on these things?"

A. They had Kerry at 71% four hours before the polls closed in 2004

B. They were at 70-75% that the USSC would overturn Obamacare

C. They are basing their numbers off BS polls

D. OR, and I know this sounds conspiratorial, but I wouldn't put it past the Dems to blow a few million dollars to try to skew Intrade in hopes of effecting the election

23 posted on 11/06/2012 11:35:18 AM PST by profit_guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

What possible reason is there to pay out early? There is no advantage to doing so. That makes less than any sense. It is something out of Orwell.


24 posted on 11/06/2012 11:38:51 AM PST by Crimson Elephant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

” I predict they’ll be renaming the place INDEBT “

: )


25 posted on 11/06/2012 11:39:45 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Crimson Elephant

By Ben Rooney November 6, 2012: 12:55 PM ET
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/11/06/intrade-obama-romney/

Is the only source for this I have found. It makes no sense for them to pay out.


26 posted on 11/06/2012 11:40:51 AM PST by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: montag813

this+same+irish+bookmaker+paid+out+early+for+scott+walker.+The+day+before+the+race+i+believe.+And+they+were+right.+


27 posted on 11/06/2012 11:41:02 AM PST by library user
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

This is BS, no bookmaker pays out before an event. It’s true that Romney is a 2.5 to 1 underdog, but it’s almost impossible for a US citizen to make a wager on the election. It can be done but you have to Western Union the money to the Philippines first. The high odds on Romney is partly because of the staggering amount bet on Obama way back to the beginning of this year and the fact that all the people betting are from Europe and Russia.


28 posted on 11/06/2012 11:42:03 AM PST by Paddy Irish
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Over the years, I’ve found that these betting/stock trading sites are absolutely WORTHLESS are predictors of future events. They just follow the polls, and news of the day in general. IGNORE THEM(unless you want to take a shot at earning some easy money).


29 posted on 11/06/2012 11:42:51 AM PST by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: stevecmd

“they Must KNOW S O M E T H I N G !!!!”

Yeah they do. The election is rigged.


30 posted on 11/06/2012 11:43:04 AM PST by Revel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Both of these betting agencies are Irish, and I wouldn’t be surprised if many of these bets are in effect campaign contributions to European leftist candidates.

Remember Hillary Clinton’s cattle futures deal? If the price went up, she won. If the price went down, somebody else lost. The scoundrels who were giving her that “no-lose” were in effect not only paying her off, but then writing off any losses, if they had any, and not just other investors.


31 posted on 11/06/2012 11:45:09 AM PST by yefragetuwrabrumuy (DIY Bumper Sticker: "THREE TIMES,/ DEMOCRATS/ REJECTED GOD")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Crimson Elephant
That makes less than any sense. It is something out of Orwell.

Probably just some kind of money laundering. They don't have a very good record of being right.

32 posted on 11/06/2012 11:45:54 AM PST by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Doogle
see where INTRADE is at 10pm tonight

Exactly!

At this point, it's impossible to call. But I would rather have money on Mitt than Obama any day.

33 posted on 11/06/2012 11:50:55 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Obama: "If you've got a business -- you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: RoosterRedux

same number was there three weeks ago


34 posted on 11/06/2012 11:52:47 AM PST by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

I bet they were reimbursed for this. This is more the “it’s inevitable Republicans so don’t bother voting” garbage.


35 posted on 11/06/2012 11:55:04 AM PST by AmericaUnited
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: discostu; library user; Paddy Irish
There’s not a bookmaker in the world that pays out before the event.

Sorry but I must disagree, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has done this many times before. It is quite apparently a marketing decision that reaps, as we see here, large amounts of publicity.

Still, I put this and Intrade in the same catagory as the multiple reports that we have had on how Obama is far more popular in China, Kenya, Europe and other foreign places. Totally irrelevant and worthy of, at the most, a yawn.

Now, if we could have an investigation of foreign campaign contributions ... that is relevant!

36 posted on 11/06/2012 11:56:36 AM PST by SES1066 (Government is NOT the reason for my existence!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Soros michief? Maybe this is the “declare victory early” story we heard in order to discourage Republican voters.


37 posted on 11/06/2012 11:57:32 AM PST by Anima Mundi (ENVY IS JUST PASSIVE, LAZY GREED)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/
They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html


38 posted on 11/06/2012 11:58:45 AM PST by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Publicity stunt to get the sheep to put their money on 0bama at -350 ....which is a sucker bet to begin with


39 posted on 11/06/2012 12:00:00 PM PST by lwd
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Anima Mundi
Maybe this is the “declare victory early” story we heard in order to discourage Republican voters.

I'd wager there are quite a few americans that don't know who or what intrade is, and there are many more who could care less. If this is their "discouragement" trick then it's pretty freakin weak.
40 posted on 11/06/2012 12:00:42 PM PST by brent13a
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: SES1066

Sorry I’m not buying it. Way too often in things that people bet on the thing everybody “knows” will happen doesn’t. If the bookie paid off early he then has to go get the money back, that’s just stupid. There’s no margin in it, only bad things can happen. Maybe they announce it, maybe they even cut checks that are post dated but they aren’t paying out early. They also apparently have a rep for not paying out on long odds, which tells you just how honest they are and how much you should believe them when they say they’re paying early.


41 posted on 11/06/2012 12:01:53 PM PST by discostu (Not a part of anyone's well oiled machine.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary
A betting service paying out before the issue is final?
This has got to be a DU invented "news" item.
Makes no sense whatsoever.

I say delusional BS!

42 posted on 11/06/2012 12:02:01 PM PST by publius911 (Formerly Publius 6961, formerly jennsdad)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

Looks like a penny stock pump and dump.


43 posted on 11/06/2012 12:02:45 PM PST by tbpiper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

I’m going to go to the track and see if they will pay out on a horse before the end of the race.


44 posted on 11/06/2012 12:03:16 PM PST by Calpublican
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Anima Mundi

That had occurred to me also.


45 posted on 11/06/2012 12:04:06 PM PST by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

The Irish are the world’s foremost authority on American politics. They say so themselves, therefore it must be true. /s


46 posted on 11/06/2012 12:04:43 PM PST by forgotten man (forgotten man)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Heavyrunner
Intrade has never been wrong ... yet.

First time for everything I suppose but this doesn't give me heart .....

47 posted on 11/06/2012 12:05:59 PM PST by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

my guess: these payouts (laundering) were already planned for an obama win.

Now they feel/know obama will NOT win so they are paying out a day early.

When the election is called they say “wow, how could we (wink, wink) have been so dumb!”

The Mitt payouts will cause them to declare bankruptcy (oh, dear, we can’t pay them now!)

mission accomplished.


48 posted on 11/06/2012 12:06:36 PM PST by SparkyBass
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: profit_guy

Thanks man...That does make me feel better.


49 posted on 11/06/2012 12:10:38 PM PST by Heavyrunner (Socialize this.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: listenhillary

50 posted on 11/06/2012 12:16:31 PM PST by CharlesMartelsGhost
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-71 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson