Skip to comments.Where A Candidate Campaigns On the Last Days Of An Election Gives Big Clues On Who's Winning
Posted on 11/06/2012 9:40:14 AM PST by OneVike
(Let's do this for Todd Beamer who gave his all for the country he loved)
Looking at the places a candidate visits on the last days of a campaign can give clues as to what the internal numbers tell them about their chances of winning an election. Whenever a person throws their hat in the ring, they start by convincing their base to support them. So at first, they will spend a lot of time getting acquainted with the voters who are most likely to vote for them. As the campaign matures into the election cycle, they will spend less and less time giving speeches or visiting their base supporters and more time in areas where they are less recognizable.
Every candidate will have their own pollsters who keep them up to speed as to where they need to spend their time and money. As a candidate gets voters where they are less known to begin thinking about them, they will begin to spend more time and money in that area to win them over. All the while a candidate will continue to go to areas where their pollsters tell them the voters are responding positively to their message. The more the voters of different areas where the candidate has stumped become supporters of them, the less time they will spend there. All the while spending more time in places they have yet to convince the voters to support them.
In the last weeks of any campaign, the candidates will be seen more and more in the areas that have the most undecided voters and in the areas that are considered their opponent's stronghold, to win over more voters. As a result, the voters who live in areas where the candidate is the strongest should not expect to see them again, unless they live where the candidate will be holding their election night rally..
That being said, if a candidate's pollsters inform them that they have not locked up their base, they will be forced to make the rounds to convince their most strident supporters to get out and vote for them. In the last days of an election, the last thing any candidate wants to learn is that they need to spend valuable time and money convincing their base to vote for them.
Which brings us to this year's presidential race between Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney. We are being told by pollsters that their numbers point out that the race for the White House is a virtual tie, and the swing states are all up for grabs. But we are actually witnessing one candidate losing his base, and the other infiltrating his opponents base. The images below are screen shots of state maps from the 2008 final vote tally of counties in Philadelphia, Ohio, and Wisconsin. You will notice that I have highlighted the counties of each map to distinguish which ones contain the cities of Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Madison. Of these cities' counties, only Allegheny County was close. However, the city was carried by Obama by almost 70%.
So considering that the three cities in question are Democrat strongholds, it makes one wonder why Obama spent the day before the election in Madison WI to excite his base if the polls are close? Also, why is Mitt Romney going to two of Obama's strongest bases if the election is so close? This tells me that Romney has been widening his lead over Obama by stealing votes from his base while Obama is trying to stop the bleeding.
Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Wisconsin
Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Pennsylvania
Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Ohio
It really should not come as a surprise to anyone that Romney is pulling away from Obama. There are a couple of important statistics that the pollsters are not considering in their final analysis of the election. First, we have the voter enthusiasm gap that favors Republicans. As early as mid July, a CBS/NYT poll had Republicans with a huge edge in voter enthusiasm over Democrats, 49% to 27%. Even Independents, who went big for Republicans in 2010 were more enthused in July, 29%, than Democrats were. Pews final poll (below) shows that 76% of Republicans are definitely voting compared to only 62% of Democrats. That means almost 40% of Democrats are not registered or will not vote, and that is why Obama has to return to Madison and other strongholds to convince his base to vote.
Then there is the party affiliation that the Republicans hold an edge in over the Democrats, but pollsters have been ignoring it in favor of Democrats in their polls. Rasmussen's final poll, shows how Republicans hold a 5.8% advantage over Democrats in what party the voters identify themselves with regardless their party registration. So when you read a poll like CNN's that has a plus 11% advantage in Democrats surveyed, you know they have rigged their poll to favor Obama. So if you take their poll that has the race tied 49% to 49% and adjust it by 15.8% in favor of Romney, the real poll from CNN would be Romney 56.9% to 41.1% for Obama. Now that is a huge difference, but it does not fall in line with the lefts mantra.
Then I offer the evidence from the polls that shows many black Americans are not excited about Obama any longer, especially since he embraced the pro gay agenda. Like Pastor Phillip Goudeaux of Sacramento who supported Obama in 2008, but is now actively campaigning against him. He's not the only black Pastor who is telling his congregation to either vote for Romney, or don't vote at all. This is a big problem that the Democrat party refuses to acknowledge exists.
According to a report released in July by the Public Religion Research Institute, 18% of black Americans believe that the same-sex marriage issue is so critical that it sways how or if they will vote at all. It is easy to see why Obama is finding it difficult to get his base excited to vote for him. Think about the disaster the Democrat party will face if 18% of the black community either votes for Romney or doesn't vote at all. If just 10% refuse to vote, it will lead to a Romney landslide and probably a pickup of another 30 seats in the House, along with enough Senate seats to comfortably control legislation with little trouble from the Democrats.
There are other reasons Obama and the Democrats are in trouble, like the polls that have Independents going for Romney by 14% to 22% depending on the poll you read. How about the young under 25 vote that helped carry Obama to the White house, they are dispirited and will not be showing up. They really don't like living with Mom and Dad, and no great speech is going to convince them that $4 to $5 per gallon of gas is a good thing. I could go on and on about the reasons Mitt Romney will defeat Obama today, but I have already written much more than I intended. So let me sum it all up by stating that Mitt Romney is going to defeat Barrack Obama by a margin that is much too large for the left to steal.
Oh, my call?
Republicans will pick up 15 to 25 seats
Republicans pick up 7 seats maybe 9
The great thing about this election is that it will be two-fer. Along with defeating Obama, Nancy Pelosi will resign her seat, because she knows it will be a cold day in hell before she is ever allowed to hold power in Washington again.
You need to give credit to David Leip’s election atlas which is where you are getting those maps.
I noticed an interesting thing yesterday. It has to do with where the candidates are campaigning in the last hours. "Where A Candidate Campaigns On the Last Days Of An Election Gives Big Clues On Who's Winning", and I truly think Romney will win by a much bigger margin than the MSM, the left, or even the GOP establishment want to believe.
Also, regardless of the outcome, let us all pray that no one has put so much of their personal faith in mankind and it's governments that a suicide watch is needed to keep them safe as it seems many Democrats voting for Obama have stated. I found a list of twitters from Democrats who are seriously close to losing it. "Democrats Twitter About Their Plans If Obama Loses (Suicide Watch Needed)"
I do, the links go to his page. Check it out.
I think you are a wee bit optimistic, but of course I hope you are correct. I do think Romney is going to win, but I am concerned about picking up enough Senate seats.
From his lips to God’s ears.
I think its as much fantasy as lib prognostications O will win narrowly.
It will be somewhere in between. But it makes for a lovely conservative wet dream! :)
I am praying too. Our little town held a prayer vigil last night at the Court House steps. How cool is that? We were praying that God would forgive our sins and relieve us of obama. This is one state that won’t vote for him. I have not heard one person admit to voting for him, and I see a lot of people. It is universally understood that we will all vote for Romney (Mormon or not).
Ahh, very slick. Carry on.
I believe Romney to be an “A” personality...to leave no stone unturned and to over-achieve in every endeavor he undertakes.
He will treat the Presidency as a full time job and do everything in his power to restore American ideals and exceptionalism. That’s why he’s still out campaigning.
Very optimistic prediction. I hope you are right, we will need a blowout for the Kenyan to go quietly.
This oversimplified the mechanics of Presidential campaigns, which are much more sophisticated in how they operate and will both conduct head fakes and alsp take into consideration downticket operations.
For instance, George W Bush’s foray into CA at the end of the 2000 election, designed to draw attention away from what was going on in states like WV and TN. Or Doles final weeks, which were all about bolstering downticket candidates.
McCain tried a combination of the two in 2008 by going into PA, something the Dems have been drawing (incorrect, IMO) analogies to.
I’m not saying you’re wrong here, just that we’re going to have to wait for the coming weeks to hear from the campaigns what they were doing and why.
Voted in IL at 6:10 AM. Big line: 50+ people for an outlying area of Peoria. If this is a big Republican turnout, my prediction (very optimistic) may come true:
Romney 55% - Obama 45%
Electoral Votes: 353-185
I’ve been using military analogies for days now, to explain how Mitt is advancing into Obama’s ‘safe’ territories, while Obama has had to fall back to these areas to defend his ground.
Red districts haven’t seen hide nor hair of Mitt in recent weeks, but Blue districts have seen Obama time and time again. If that doesn’t paint a picture of what’s happening in this race, nothing does.
Yea, well I don’t listen to the MSM. the only time I here them is at the top of the hour news while I am listening to Rush. Everything on my TV is TIVOed, so i skip commercials, and even when i watch a sporting event, I watch it after its over.
Tonight will be one of the few times I ever watch anything real time. It really does a great job of calming my spirit by not listening to anything I know is designed to convince me that I am an ignorant neanderthal that needs to get acquainted with my feminine side.
If I want to get close to anything feminine, I will sit next to my wife, or buy a cat.
Mark my word, you will not be able to sleep tonight due to the great feelings that has your adrenaline going. You will be pissed though, only because of the way the left has stole your enjoyment of an election that was decided before we voted in 2010.
The Senate pick up number looks way off. 7-9? I’d like to see his data on that.
I AGREE! Along with undecideds (because 4 years of evaluation of An Obama Presidentcy) choosing Romney this year, as well as the “band wagon effect” of Mitt Romney seemingly winning carrying others along + smaller effects like the bad weather magnifying the enthousiasm gap to a small degree! ROMNEY wins big.
Ive been using military analogies for days now, to explain how Mitt is advancing into Obamas safe territories, while Obama has had to fall back to these areas to defend his ground.
Red districts havent seen hide nor hair of Mitt in recent weeks, but Blue districts have seen Obama time and time again. If that doesnt paint a picture of whats happening in this race, nothing does.
If it comes to pass as you say, trust me, I can live with that. Republicans controlling all branches of government would truly be a gift from the Creator.
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