Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Where A Candidate Campaigns On the Last Days Of An Election Gives Big Clues On Who's Winning
GATE ^ | 11/6/12 | Chuck Wolk

Posted on 11/06/2012 9:40:14 AM PST by OneVike


(Let's do this for Todd Beamer who gave his all for the country he loved)

Looking at the places a candidate visits on the last days of a campaign can give clues as to what the internal numbers tell them about their chances of winning an election. Whenever a person throws their hat in the ring, they start by convincing their base to support them. So at first, they will spend a lot of time getting acquainted with the voters who are most likely to vote for them. As the campaign matures into the election cycle, they will spend less and less time giving speeches or visiting their base supporters and more time in areas where they are less recognizable.

Every candidate will have their own pollsters who keep them up to speed as to where they need to spend their time and money. As a candidate gets voters where they are less known to begin thinking about them, they will begin to spend more time and money in that area to win them over. All the while a candidate will continue to go to areas where their pollsters tell them the voters are responding positively to their message. The more the voters of different areas where the candidate has stumped become supporters of them, the less time they will spend there. All the while spending more time in places they have yet to convince the voters to support them.

In the last weeks of any campaign, the candidates will be seen more and more in the areas that have the most undecided voters and in the areas that are considered their opponent's stronghold, to win over more voters. As a result, the voters who live in areas where the candidate is the strongest should not expect to see them again, unless they live where the candidate will be holding their election night rally..

That being said, if a candidate's pollsters inform them that they have not locked up their base, they will be forced to make the rounds to convince their most strident supporters to get out and vote for them. In the last days of an election, the last thing any candidate wants to learn is that they need to spend valuable time and money convincing their base to vote for them.

Which brings us to this year's presidential race between Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney. We are being told by pollsters that their numbers point out that the race for the White House is a virtual tie, and the swing states are all up for grabs. But we are actually witnessing one candidate losing his base, and the other infiltrating his opponents base. The images below are screen shots of state maps from the 2008 final vote tally of counties in Philadelphia, Ohio, and Wisconsin. You will notice that I have highlighted the counties of each map to distinguish which ones contain the cities of Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Madison. Of these cities' counties, only Allegheny County was close. However, the city was carried by Obama by almost 70%.

So considering that the three cities in question are Democrat strongholds, it makes one wonder why Obama spent the day before the election in Madison WI to excite his base if the polls are close? Also, why is Mitt Romney going to two of Obama's strongest bases if the election is so close? This tells me that Romney has been widening his lead over Obama by stealing votes from his base while Obama is trying to stop the bleeding.


Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Wisconsin


Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Pennsylvania


Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Ohio

It really should not come as a surprise to anyone that Romney is pulling away from Obama. There are a couple of important statistics that the pollsters are not considering in their final analysis of the election. First, we have the voter enthusiasm gap that favors Republicans. As early as mid July, a CBS/NYT poll had Republicans with a huge edge in voter enthusiasm over Democrats, 49% to 27%. Even Independents, who went big for Republicans in 2010 were more enthused in July, 29%, than Democrats were. Pews final poll (below) shows that 76% of Republicans are definitely voting compared to only 62% of Democrats. That means almost 40% of Democrats are not registered or will not vote, and that is why Obama has to return to Madison and other strongholds to convince his base to vote.

Then there is the party affiliation that the Republicans hold an edge in over the Democrats, but pollsters have been ignoring it in favor of Democrats in their polls. Rasmussen's final poll, shows how Republicans hold a 5.8% advantage over Democrats in what party the voters identify themselves with regardless their party registration. So when you read a poll like CNN's that has a plus 11% advantage in Democrats surveyed, you know they have rigged their poll to favor Obama. So if you take their poll that has the race tied 49% to 49% and adjust it by 15.8% in favor of Romney, the real poll from CNN would be Romney 56.9% to 41.1% for Obama. Now that is a huge difference, but it does not fall in line with the lefts mantra.

Then I offer the evidence from the polls that shows many black Americans are not excited about Obama any longer, especially since he embraced the pro gay agenda. Like Pastor Phillip Goudeaux of Sacramento who supported Obama in 2008, but is now actively campaigning against him. He's not the only black Pastor who is telling his congregation to either vote for Romney, or don't vote at all. This is a big problem that the Democrat party refuses to acknowledge exists.

According to a report released in July by the Public Religion Research Institute, 18% of black Americans believe that the same-sex marriage issue is so critical that it sways how or if they will vote at all. It is easy to see why Obama is finding it difficult to get his base excited to vote for him. Think about the disaster the Democrat party will face if 18% of the black community either votes for Romney or doesn't vote at all. If just 10% refuse to vote, it will lead to a Romney landslide and probably a pickup of another 30 seats in the House, along with enough Senate seats to comfortably control legislation with little trouble from the Democrats.

There are other reasons Obama and the Democrats are in trouble, like the polls that have Independents going for Romney by 14% to 22% depending on the poll you read. How about the young under 25 vote that helped carry Obama to the White house, they are dispirited and will not be showing up. They really don't like living with Mom and Dad, and no great speech is going to convince them that $4 to $5 per gallon of gas is a good thing. I could go on and on about the reasons Mitt Romney will defeat Obama today, but I have already written much more than I intended. So let me sum it all up by stating that Mitt Romney is going to defeat Barrack Obama by a margin that is much too large for the left to steal.

Oh, my call?

Romney: 55%
Obama 44%
Johnson1%

House:
Republicans will pick up 15 to 25 seats

Senate:
Republicans pick up 7 seats maybe 9

The great thing about this election is that it will be two-fer. Along with defeating Obama, Nancy Pelosi will resign her seat, because she knows it will be a cold day in hell before she is ever allowed to hold power in Washington again.


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: alteredsource; bloggersandpersonal; election2012; obama; romney; vanity
Let us all pray that the good Lord will give us another chance to fix the things we have allowed our fellow Americans to totally screw up that God has found to be detestable. We all agree that eventually God will have had enough with us if we do not change things. I and many of you also agree that today is our last chance to stop our countries train ride to hell.

I guess I have never prayed so hard that His will is what my will is. To borrow a phrase from Todd Beamer, LET'S ROLL"!




1 posted on 11/06/2012 9:40:18 AM PST by OneVike
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: OneVike

You need to give credit to David Leip’s election atlas which is where you are getting those maps.


2 posted on 11/06/2012 9:43:02 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JesusBmyGod; buffyt; rom; persistence48; Hanna548; DvdMom; leftyontheright; FrdmLvr; jblann1; ...
GATE Video Ping!

I noticed an interesting thing yesterday. It has to do with where the candidates are campaigning in the last hours. "Where A Candidate Campaigns On the Last Days Of An Election Gives Big Clues On Who's Winning", and I truly think Romney will win by a much bigger margin than the MSM, the left, or even the GOP establishment want to believe.

Also, regardless of the outcome, let us all pray that no one has put so much of their personal faith in mankind and it's governments that a suicide watch is needed to keep them safe as it seems many Democrats voting for Obama have stated. I found a list of twitters from Democrats who are seriously close to losing it. "Democrats Twitter About Their Plans If Obama Loses (Suicide Watch Needed)"

.

Send FReep Mail to OneVike to be
[ADDED] or [REMOVED]
from my article and video Ping List

(This is a low ping list)


3 posted on 11/06/2012 9:43:17 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a Christian waiting to go home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JCBreckenridge

I do, the links go to his page. Check it out.


4 posted on 11/06/2012 9:45:17 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a Christian waiting to go home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

I think you are a wee bit optimistic, but of course I hope you are correct. I do think Romney is going to win, but I am concerned about picking up enough Senate seats.


5 posted on 11/06/2012 9:46:36 AM PST by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM is the enemy of the American people.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All




Lord, Let It Be!

We Vote and We Pray!


6 posted on 11/06/2012 9:49:30 AM PST by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

From his lips to God’s ears.

I think its as much fantasy as lib prognostications O will win narrowly.

It will be somewhere in between. But it makes for a lovely conservative wet dream! :)


7 posted on 11/06/2012 9:49:34 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

I am praying too. Our little town held a prayer vigil last night at the Court House steps. How cool is that? We were praying that God would forgive our sins and relieve us of obama. This is one state that won’t vote for him. I have not heard one person admit to voting for him, and I see a lot of people. It is universally understood that we will all vote for Romney (Mormon or not).


8 posted on 11/06/2012 9:50:46 AM PST by WVNan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

Ahh, very slick. Carry on.


9 posted on 11/06/2012 9:51:28 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Obadiah

I believe Romney to be an “A” personality...to leave no stone unturned and to over-achieve in every endeavor he undertakes.
He will treat the Presidency as a full time job and do everything in his power to restore American ideals and exceptionalism. That’s why he’s still out campaigning.


10 posted on 11/06/2012 9:52:19 AM PST by sanjuanbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

Very optimistic prediction. I hope you are right, we will need a blowout for the Kenyan to go quietly.


11 posted on 11/06/2012 9:52:22 AM PST by Defiant (If there are infinite parallel universes, why Lord, am I living in the one with Obama as President?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

This oversimplified the mechanics of Presidential campaigns, which are much more sophisticated in how they operate and will both conduct head fakes and alsp take into consideration downticket operations.

For instance, George W Bush’s foray into CA at the end of the 2000 election, designed to draw attention away from what was going on in states like WV and TN. Or Doles final weeks, which were all about bolstering downticket candidates.

McCain tried a combination of the two in 2008 by going into PA, something the Dems have been drawing (incorrect, IMO) analogies to.

I’m not saying you’re wrong here, just that we’re going to have to wait for the coming weeks to hear from the campaigns what they were doing and why.


12 posted on 11/06/2012 9:53:00 AM PST by tanknetter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

Voted in IL at 6:10 AM. Big line: 50+ people for an outlying area of Peoria. If this is a big Republican turnout, my prediction (very optimistic) may come true:

Romney 55% - Obama 45%
Electoral Votes: 353-185


13 posted on 11/06/2012 9:53:17 AM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (Seek you first the kingdom of God, and all things will be given to you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

I’ve been using military analogies for days now, to explain how Mitt is advancing into Obama’s ‘safe’ territories, while Obama has had to fall back to these areas to defend his ground.

Red districts haven’t seen hide nor hair of Mitt in recent weeks, but Blue districts have seen Obama time and time again. If that doesn’t paint a picture of what’s happening in this race, nothing does.


14 posted on 11/06/2012 9:53:33 AM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Obadiah

Yea, well I don’t listen to the MSM. the only time I here them is at the top of the hour news while I am listening to Rush. Everything on my TV is TIVOed, so i skip commercials, and even when i watch a sporting event, I watch it after its over.

Tonight will be one of the few times I ever watch anything real time. It really does a great job of calming my spirit by not listening to anything I know is designed to convince me that I am an ignorant neanderthal that needs to get acquainted with my feminine side.

If I want to get close to anything feminine, I will sit next to my wife, or buy a cat.

Mark my word, you will not be able to sleep tonight due to the great feelings that has your adrenaline going. You will be pissed though, only because of the way the left has stole your enjoyment of an election that was decided before we voted in 2010.


15 posted on 11/06/2012 9:53:43 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a Christian waiting to go home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

The Senate pick up number looks way off. 7-9? I’d like to see his data on that.


16 posted on 11/06/2012 9:56:02 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

I AGREE! Along with undecideds (because 4 years of evaluation of An Obama Presidentcy) choosing Romney this year, as well as the “band wagon effect” of Mitt Romney seemingly winning carrying others along + smaller effects like the bad weather magnifying the enthousiasm gap to a small degree! ROMNEY wins big.


17 posted on 11/06/2012 9:56:03 AM PST by JSDude1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Windflier
I’ve been using military analogies for days now, to explain how Mitt is advancing into Obama’s ‘safe’ territories, while Obama has had to fall back to these areas to defend his ground.

Red districts haven’t seen hide nor hair of Mitt in recent weeks, but Blue districts have seen Obama time and time again. If that doesn’t paint a picture of what’s happening in this race, nothing does.


Exactly my sentiment. I like you military analogy, I wish i would have weave3d it into mine. Thanks much.
18 posted on 11/06/2012 9:57:06 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a Christian waiting to go home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: OneVike
But we are actually witnessing one candidate losing his base, and the other infiltrating his opponent's base.

Precisely!

19 posted on 11/06/2012 10:03:27 AM PST by GVnana
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OneVike

If it comes to pass as you say, trust me, I can live with that. Republicans controlling all branches of government would truly be a gift from the Creator.


20 posted on 11/06/2012 10:12:36 AM PST by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM is the enemy of the American people.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: sanjuanbob
LOL. Today (election day) Obama has it packed in and is “awaiting results” in Chicago. Romney and Ryan are both out campaigning. Yeah, I know, Biden made an unannounced campaign visit, but I think they saw Romney still out and had to send out old Joe to avoid embarrassment.
21 posted on 11/06/2012 10:16:20 AM PST by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM is the enemy of the American people.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: OneVike
Nancy Pelosi will resign her seat,

Where does this come from?

Why would she stand for election and then immediately resign?

22 posted on 11/06/2012 10:22:24 AM PST by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Obadiah
had to send out old Joe [Biden] to avoid embarrassment.

I want you to say that out loud, three times.

When you quit laughing, come back and tell me what's wrong with this picture.

23 posted on 11/06/2012 10:23:51 AM PST by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Izzy Dunne

You caught that, huh? As soon as I hit “enter” I went, “D’oh!”.


24 posted on 11/06/2012 10:26:59 AM PST by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM is the enemy of the American people.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Izzy Dunne
Where does this come from?

Why would she stand for election and then immediately resign?

Why are all the poll compnay's destroying their reputation by ignoring the inevitable landslide?, However, I wrote she would because of what Breitbart is reported about a week ago that the Democrat party may force her out of the leadership. Trust me, if that happens she will not stick around.
25 posted on 11/06/2012 10:37:46 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a Christian waiting to go home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: OneVike
NorCal Blogs
26 posted on 11/06/2012 10:37:46 AM PST by A.A. Cunningham (Barry Soetoro is a Kenyan communist)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Obadiah

I agree with one caveat. Change the word “republicans” to conservatives.


27 posted on 11/06/2012 10:53:40 AM PST by ping jockey (may I introduce The Honorable Mitt Romney President of the United States.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: sanjuanbob

“I believe Romney to be an “A” personality...to leave no stone unturned and to over-achieve in every endeavor he undertakes.”

He’s also very smart. Many A types just like to aggressively bully their way through things without much thought.


28 posted on 11/06/2012 11:11:26 AM PST by ari-freedom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Izzy Dunne

“Where does this come from?

Why would she stand for election and then immediately resign?”

If this prediction holds true, or even close to true, and Democrats are totally wiped from any and all meaningful positions of power, she may not be safe from her own party members to walk the halls of Congress...

I can see her resigning due to the hate and and anger she feels from te Tea Party members of Congress and how it is now a hostile work environment.


29 posted on 11/06/2012 12:03:31 PM PST by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson