[Arkansas Toothpick]

There are over 3,000 counties/parishes in the US. It is my guess that so called bellweathers are nothing more than a statistical outlier.

[DaveInDallas]

There are over 3,000 counties/parishes in the US. It is my guess that so called bellweathers are nothing more than a statistical outlier.

You could probably find a similar number of precincts with an opposite correlation, they always pick the loser.